OnPoint: Dear Labour Caucus
954 Responses
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I agree with Keith that the factionalism is hurting the party but I always thought the reason because Cunliffe was not liked all that much was because he was not in a faction and didn't play that game well enough. Phil Tywford is another who doesn't have a block vote behind him and has been on the outer.
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At the risk of stating the obvious (and/or repeating something I might have missed in the comments), and disregarding Keith's reasoned and rather brilliant analysis, I think the decision is easy: Labour should never choose a leader whose surname can be improved by a simple, strategic addition of the letter "T."
Immaturity quotient achieved.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
I take what I assume to be your underlying point that the gloss will be coming off the Govt this term. Honeymoon's over
More that because the honeymoon is over, Key and the Nat front bench aren't going to be able to devote as much of their time and energy to landing easy hits on the leader sitting opposite. And as Ben pointed out, there might be a few other distractions coming down the pipe, too. Which means whoever ends up filling that space on the opposition benches might not necessarily need to be a dirty scarred-up streetfighter - if there's ever a good time for new blood, perhaps it's now?
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BenWilson, in reply to
Was Ben Thomas even in this conversation?
Nope.
They haven't been extremely accurate (yet), because the events these contracts cover are still far from being determined.
Sure, but it's been around for many years now, and made a lot of very accurate predictions.
More to the point though, I don't trust them as predictions here because the various contracts don't match up or trade in line with each other.
Arbitrage it then. As people get more interested (as the event approaches), the volumes go up, and the arbitrage opportunities get smaller and smaller.
When a Labour PM is less likely than Shearer or Cunliffe personally the market simply isn't working.
Just indicates high volatility. Could be a chance for arbitrage.
As you say, long way out, low volumes. Volumes are akin to the sample sizes that you have to always ask for in polls. But you don't need to worry about the sampling method in iPredict.
Allow me to correct that oversight.
Welcome back, btw. Have missed you about this place.
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BenWilson, in reply to
National won the same number of electorates as last time, and got a slightly higher party vote than last time. Labour suffered a massive defeat. I think we can accept these things are facts – in which case I think it’s a bit too soon to characterise how I think a lot of media, and certainly much of the left would like to portray this next term as one where National are on the back foot.
A couple more facts to add to the mix. ACT and UF got caned. Greens and NZF had big gains. Mana was born. The Maori party got punished hard. MMP convincingly returned. I think "on the back foot" is less true than "backed into a corner". National have 3 years to show why anyone bothered. So far their administration has been an unmitigated disaster for every stat worth a damn, and Labour was piss weak as an opposition. They hold their position of power by the grace of one homophobic racist, and one avowed centrist, who deliberately chose purple as his party's color. And the Maori party, which is run by people who say they're not even going to be here next time around.
But I agree that this time around there are more ways for them to do that, and unpopular policies such as asset sales is one of them.
Practically everything they have said they'll do is unpopular. Talking about doing them isn't. So you can bash beneficiaries all day long, but if you actually start really cutting into benefits, you not only lose all those votes, you energize apathetic non-voters. You can talk about mining, but when you start digging up the land, NIMBYism has major traction. You could even find defection to be a problem in that case - Nikki Kaye could cross the floor. Maori Party could vote against if it's in their stronghold and their cut isn't enough.
If they have to go so far as to actually break strikes, NZ could even rediscover its working class.
Every year that passes, more baby boomers are starting to retire too. That's got to take its toll on the tax take and the pension cost.
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HenryB, in reply to
Why did Winston get in?
A good point (assuming that the question is rhetorical). Yes, there is a strong `leadership' factor at work in Winston's following i.e. voting for the person as well as the policy platform.
Putting the Greens/Labour together gives something close to 40% of the electorate who are immune to JK's charms.
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Michael Homer, in reply to
Arbitrage it then. As people get more interested (as the event approaches), the volumes go up, and the arbitrage opportunities get smaller and smaller.
I did. I will at this point make a (small) profit regardless of who the leader is, but that doesn't mean I have any confidence in the predictions it makes of either that or the 2014 election as being based on anything meaningful at all, yet.
But you don’t need to worry about the sampling method in iPredict.
I don't. The sampling method is fine, but the sample, right now, is inadequate. That's all.
I think we actually agree here, from this post - it will probably converge on something fairly accurate in time, but on these questions it's far from that point. On others it has been good, especially when the event gets closer. To counterbalance that, though, at the 2008 election there was a "David Benson-Pope to run as a candidate other than for the Labour Party" contract that launched at 80¢ and stayed thereabouts up until the end. That was not an accurate prediction of anything, it was David Farrar's wishful thinking. It's not an oracle.
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Andy, in reply to
U hit dat nail on da head
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BenWilson, in reply to
I did. I will at this point make a (small) profit regardless of who the leader is, but that doesn't mean I have any confidence in the predictions it makes of either that or the 2014 election as being based on anything meaningful at all, yet.
Agreed. I can't think of any method that could do that. Anything can happen in 3 years, including non-human factors like earthquakes and droughts.
At the moment, I think what can be gleaned from the long range predictions is the sentiments of the likely traders. That was all I commented on - why do they feel Shearer is so likely, and yet at the same time a Labour government unlikely?
But I'm not worrying about the VRWC too much, HORansome would have a piece of me. Besides, even if there is a conspiracy, you can't work out what it's going to do. Best just to lay your plans along sound lines - work out your policies, then work out who they appeal to, then get the message out, then sample to see how you're doing. Adjust policy if necessary, to find the demographics untapped or wavering. Get the message out, collect data. Don't worry too much about what the other party thinks - you'll find out the important truth from your own sampling and analysis.
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giovanni tiso, in reply to
Putting the Greens/Labour together gives something close to 40% of the electorate who are immune to JK's charms.
Pretty much bang on 40% (plus Mana) of the people who voted. Than there is the small matter of the third of the electorate who didn't vote.
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Michael Homer, in reply to
At the moment, I think what can be gleaned from the long range predictions is the sentiments of the likely traders. That was all I commented on – why do they feel Shearer is so likely, and yet at the same time a Labour government unlikely?
People have said this a lot, but just to be clear - PM.2014.LABOUR is over 50¢ right now, and has been for a couple of days, as it was for almost a week before that. It dropped under briefly, caused by a few small trades, and that made the news. It's currently at 53c, but moves up and down pretty arbitrarily within a ten-cent-or-so band and trying to make news with that is absurd. If anything, somebody spent a few dollars to bring the price down just before ipredict's weekly blog post.
Gleaning the sentiments of traders is more interesting though. I don't know what you should or could take out of it all.
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Damian Christie, in reply to
You could even find defection to be a problem in that case – Nikki Kaye could cross the floor.
That's hilarious - and suggests that their tactic worked. She even said at the time that she asked permission before she 'spoke out' against the Government's proposals, in order to shore up her green cred with the Auckland swingers. The day Nikki Kaye crosses the floor on anything is the day John Banks gets caught giving handjobs for crack. Note I said "gets caught", I'm not saying he doesn't already do it. He's just too wily.
As for everything else, as I said before, I agree it will be a tougher few years for the Govt than the previous few - natural disasters aside. But given everything the Nats signalled and started doing in the previous few years, and it had no impact on their popularity whatsoever, I can't see those 50% suddenly deciding to vote on policy... which is also to assume that they didn't already. There are certainly a bunch of people there who think mining on DOC land is fine, needs to be done if we're going to catch up with Aussie. And that cutting the DPB is probably long overdue. How many beneficiary votes will National lose by doing that, do you think?
Also I disagree, signalling in politics is just as (or more) important as doing, because once it's been signalled, it just happens, often with far less media coverage, and therefore far less fuss than the announcement itself. Particularly if, in the case of mining on DOC land, it's literally a tree falling in the woods with no-one there to hear it.
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nzlemming, in reply to
In other news, the Pope today confirmed he is a Catholic...
However, the Vatican declined to say whether or not he shits in the woods...
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giovanni tiso, in reply to
Particularly if, in the case of mining on DOC land, it's literally a tree falling in the woods with no-one there to hear it.
Actually, opposition to mining was the only effective protest-based opposition against National's policy in the first term. The middle class in this country cares a lot more about trees falling in the woods than beneficiaries going hungry.
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Danielle, in reply to
Hungry, schmungry. They're just spending it all on pokies and smokes anyway. </withering>
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giovanni tiso, in reply to
Hungry, schmungry. They're just spending it all on pokies and smokes anyway. </withering>
I also hear that many of them have Sky.
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Islander, in reply to
You forgot the booze (and other drugs...)
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Islander, in reply to
And 52inch LCD Hi-def tvs...
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And they just have all those kids to get more money...not
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You know who the last person was that told me he couldn't even get near the pokies at his local for all the beneficiary mothers there? Paula Bennett's dad. Speaks volumes.
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Islander, in reply to
(Feels like screaming. Resists. It is a quiet damp overcast evening in Big O, and the blessed birds have begun their evening chorus early...)
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
Speaks volumes.
We were up at Coopers Beach getting a warrant. The Mechanic issuing was complaining about " DPB bludgers across the road." The other half responded."Do you know if they have cars? he replied Yes. He then said, "Surely you'd be getting work off them then? He shut up after that.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
The day Nikki Kaye crosses the floor on anything . . .
They don't make 'em like Marilyn Waring any more.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
They don’t make ’em like Marilyn Waring any more.
Nanaia Mahuta has crossed the floor.
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To me it’s blatantly odd.
Sure I’m not a massive fan of Cunliffe. I think he should be living in his electorate, but hey many MPs don’t including Phil Goff. I do respect him though and his ability. I simply don’t know what Shearer’s ability is. He’s much newer and more untested than Key was.
I don’t want to put myself up as making the case for Cunliffe when he’s already done that persuasively himself. I’m really curious as to how he has pissed the clinical Keith Ng off so much! How did you become so convinced he is an insincere piece of …..work? I have to be honest this is the biggest denunciation of Cunliffe I’ve seen anywhere.
I could ask the same about Shearer- when he talks of renewal with the support of Trevor Mallard, Darien Fenton, John Pagani and Phil Goff what does that mean? (And I’m someone who thinks Fenton cops unwarranted digs, but I don’t think that is shared around here!)
You can’t be serious when you say those who, including people who haven’t ruled out a future leadership challenge this term, support Shearer are not doing it in order to advance their own political ambitions.
This post to me reads like two halves. The first diagnoses the problems of factionalism, deadwood and machine politics. The second half suggests without giving broad evidence that these are problems with Cunliffe’s bid alone. Dare I say it he is even scapegoated for things that a lot of other people also bear responsibility for.
I’m mildly pro-Cunliffe on the basis that when I’ve seen him he has had the info, answered questions succinctly, has shown clearly what his competencies and weaknesses are and he hasn’t pissed me or anyone I know that well off yet.
Shearer I simply don’t know well enough. He’s my local MP, but he hasn’t been a very public figure. I’m also far from convinced by his choice of office space in the electorate. It’s central, but the electorate is large, and it is difficult to see from ground level compared to the presence of Mellisa Lee’s space.
He would be uniquely inexperienced for the position and hasn’t made a strong enough case for me to overcome these uncertainties.
Still I think this leadership battle has been good for Labour- but if the cracks are papered over it could be worse.
Also last question: shouldn’t the guy who was able to understand the complexities of the telecommunications industry be somewhere on your front bench? There aren’t enough talented MPs in parliament as it is.
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