OnPoint: Budget 2011: A Credible Path to a Point in Time
116 Responses
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nzlemming, in reply to
All of my video-conferencing is domestic, bar a monthly to London. Enhanced capacity for telecommuting would be a huge boon to reducing emissions, as well as reducing personal costs for travel and business overheads of deskspace etc.
We don't need HD video-conferencing - Skype or gTalk is really sufficient, though not wonderful. There's too much hype about HD.
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bmk, in reply to
So you are completely confident that some new technology won't emerge that will require fibre? In the same way that fax machines and the internet couldn't even be conceived when laying the copper network. By laying fibre out we will be ready to take advantage of future technologies which are bound to be developed at some point in the future.
Plus what Sacha said.
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SteveH, in reply to
Much of the country can only dream of being able to connect at your ‘ridiculous’ 1Mbit. That’s the issue the broadband rollout is supposed to address.
The ridiculous comment refers to the allocation of 95% of ADSL2+ bandwidth to download, not to the speed itself. If it were 15Mbit/s down and 5Mbit/s up or even symmetric it'd be a more useful service. 20Mbit/s of download isn't that much more useful than 15Mbit/s but having 5 times faster upload would be a big improvement. Fibre isn't required to fix that issue. But fibre does solve the problem of distance to the cabinet/exchange which is ADSLs big weakness.
I'm just a bit perplexed by this idea that there is some application that we can't even dream of for Internet access that is only 5-10 times faster than what we have. Other people already have it. Local networks are up to 100 times faster yet.
Tell me, do you get paid the same (converted to $AU) as your counterparts across the ditch?
No, we do actually have a local office. I suspect if I had to be employed directly by the Australian company it would have just been too hard legally.
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SteveH, in reply to
So you are completely confident that some new technology won’t emerge that will require fibre? In the same way that fax machines and the internet couldn’t even be conceived when laying the copper network.
No, but other places have fibre and that new technology hasn't been invented yet. And you're still comparing it to the rollout of something completely new (copper), when this is only a generational speed increase. The last generational speed increase didn't produce any unforeseen technology so why are you guys so certain that this one will?
By laying fibre out we will be ready to take advantage of future technologies which are bound to be developed at some point in the future.
So you're advocating spending $1B at a time when the government is in the biggest financial hole it's ever been in because you're sure that something will be developed eventually. Why not wait until it has been developed? Or at least thought of? And again, why is this speed increase so special that it will produce something we can't even imagine yet?
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nzlemming, in reply to
why haven’t we been shown the economic impacts from those countries?
Those would be the places doing so much better than we are with information-based industries? Like Silicon Valley, for example? I can remember chatting on Usenet with someone in SF 15 years ago about him having a T-1 line coming into his apartment, while I was feeling whizzbang with my new 28K modem.
I don't think you have any idea of just how far behind the game we are.
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bmk, in reply to
Basically what nzlemming just said. The places with fibre have far more high-value tech. jobs than we do. Before we can even hope to have a comparable industry we will require comparable infrastructure.
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Sacha, in reply to
We don't need HD video-conferencing - Skype or gTalk is really sufficient, though not wonderful
Not much use for more than two people. I'm talking group conferencing for project teams, that sort of thing. Hi-res gives you the ability to read facial expressions around the 'table'.
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Sacha, in reply to
The last generational speed increase didn't produce any unforeseen technology
Are you seriously claiming that the jump from dial-up to basic broadband didn't enable any new services or businesses to develop?
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Sacha, in reply to
No, but other places have fibre and that new technology hasn't been invented yet.
Urban Wi-fi and fibre backbones are driving availability of location-based mobile services including social AR and payments integration. That's just one example - and mostly it's about new business opportunities or connections rather than 'technology' per se - but if you want to remain unconvinced, be my guest.
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nzlemming, in reply to
Latest skype theoretically does multi-person video (but not on my Mac). There are other apps coming along. But audio and screen-sharing/web-casting/collaboration is actually more cost-effective and useful than multi-person video in my experience.
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Except I know of two workplaces where staff not in Kiwisaver were given pay rises while those who were weren’t because their employer told them they had got their pay rise through Kiwi Saver. This may not be legal but I think will become increasingly common. So my advice would be that if you don’t sign up to Kiwisaver your employer is likely to look more favourably on giving you a pay rise.
There'd be a lot of work places that couldn't do that. I work at a university and the employer couldn't offer a differential pay increase based on kiwisaver or not. The structure doesn't allow it. I'd imagine many large employers and most public service institutions would be the same.
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So you’re advocating spending $1B at a time when the government is in the biggest financial hole it’s ever been in because you’re sure that something will be developed eventually. Why not wait until it has been developed? Or at least thought of? And again, why is this speed increase so special that it will produce something we can’t even imagine yet?
I'm not in favour of improving our internet speeds not because of some magic applications that will come from them, though I think that will happen. Fibre to the home will change how we receive entertainment into the home over time.
I'm in favour of them because our internet access in NZ is shit, and expensive, and we should try and approximate having first world internet access. It's important for business, education (universities have developed their own high speed network to get around the fact that NZ doesn't have one), and participating in society.
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bmk, in reply to
You are right in that big companies definitely won't do that. But I think many small, medium sized ones will (which make up the majority of NZ businesses) and having found out that this is, in fact, legal the practice will I imagine be quite widespread.
If I were an employer I would. It's only fair if one employee is getting a 3% contribution then I would give the employees not in kiwisaver a 3% pay rise to contribute.
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Greville Whittle, in reply to
Latest skype theoretically does multi-person video (but not on my Mac). There are other apps coming along. But audio and screen-sharing/web-casting/collaboration is actually more cost-effective and useful than multi-person video in my experience.
If you are on a Mac you can use iChat for multi person video. It uses the AIM protocols so your Windows and Linux friends can play as well.
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Fran O'Sullivan on why relying on rosy forecasts might nonetheless play well for National.
Key emphasises the tax cuts are here to stay and delineates National's policies from Labour's by arguing "we're into the politics of aspiration - my opponents are into the politics of envy".
However..
Labour's strategists know they have been handed a valuable wedge to exploit at the November election by arguing some of the Budget cuts may not have been necessary (at all) if the Key Government wasn't still borrowing so much to fund the tax cuts.
And she reckons they can win by being more National than National:
Where Labour will score is on hot-button issues such as the need to raise the age of entitlement to New Zealand Superannuation.
Many New Zealanders - including some National voters - are concerned that Key's obdurate opposition to this proposal will result in a big impost on younger generations.
Still, so long as the most important audience is reassured, eh.
Four hours later, the Prime Minister was across town strutting his stuff in front of an 800-strong top-drawer audience hosted by the influential Transtasman Business Circle. These power-brokers - who flew in from around New Zealand - are the ones who Key needs to ensure remain confident in the country's prospects.
The company chairmen, chief executives and investors and business people gave Key a good reception.
(channelling DPF's format, minus the "indeed")
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But John Armstrong is disillusioned (notable reversal in tone).
National's softening-up exercise was so unsubtle, voters felt they were being manipulated. They did not like being taken for a ride. They did not like being treated like fools.
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In short, voters are not stupid. The changes to KiwiSaver will make them rightly suspicious of what National has planned elsewhere.
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The Budget has displayed a degree of cynicism one would expect from a Government in its third term, not its first.
We were told for months by Bill English this was going to be the "Savings and Investment Budget". Yet English cut the Government contribution to KiwiSaver in half and then, to add insult to injury, expanded the tax on employer contributions to pension schemes to the lower rates of KiwiSaver.
Trying to argue black is white, the Government then claimed those in KiwiSaver would have more funds when they retire than would have been the case under current policy settings.
However,
Before the Budget, National's private polling is said to have shown its support dropping by a few percentage points. Unfortunately for Labour, the disaffected apparently parked themselves in the "don't knows" rather than shift its way.
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And to complete the trifecta of Herald opining, duffer John Roughan rewrites history.
It's 20 years now since the "Mother of all Budgets".
...Most who do remember probably recall only that it slashed social welfare, which is half true. It sliced basic benefit rates by up to a quarter and introduced grants for beneficiaries' particular needs.
But its real bravery was much broader. It defied the first rule of Keynesian economics, it cut spending in a recession.
Bill English remembers. He was a new MP in 1991 and he knows the economy was as flat that year as it is now.
...The resulting recovery was so rapid and strong that in 1994 we got something my generation had never seen: a budget surplus.
...Don Brash, when he led the National Party at the 2005 election, did not exactly spell out the programme outlined in his Act advertisement last Sunday.
Had Thursday's Budget lived up to its promise it would have trumped the Brash ad. But it didn't.
...I know only what happened the last time and it worked.
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Don't you love Budget surprises. Apparently there is enough in the public kitty for a tax break just for rugby organisations and professional players (and that's on top of underwriting the NZRU's losses and funding much of the tournament's expenses).
Finance Minister Bill English confirmed the Crown would reimburse income tax incurred by Rugby New Zealand 2011, the company set up to run the tournament, and also by the New Zealand Rugby Union where it was involved.
Separately, the Crown has agreed to reimburse the union for withholding tax incurred on payments made in relation to the tournament.
Inland Revenue has clarified that anyone representing overseas unions or official overseas rugby organisations also won't have to pay tax on income received from games or Cup-related activity while in NZ.
...Interest.co.nz managing editor Bernard Hickey slammed the Government for giving tax exemptions to rugby organisations when it had just announced it was halving its KiwiSaver member tax credit.
"The question is, why is the Government giving tax breaks to professional rugby players and their administrators when mums and dads have just seen one of their savings tax breaks cut?"
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
And to complete the trifecta of Herald opining, duffer John Roughan rewrites history.
From behind the comfort blanket of his razor wired McMansion.
Bernard Hickey:
“The question is, why is the Government giving tax breaks to professional rugby players and their administrators when mums and dads have just seen one of their savings tax breaks cut?”
Wining and dining, methinks. And it seems the IRB has failed to popularise rugby outside the 'big 8' nations.
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Sacha, in reply to
From behind the comfort blanket of his razor wired McMansion.
I don't get that impression, actually. Just misguided about what's been going on around him.
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Andrew R2, in reply to
Obvious chief executives and mps once again have to step up to the plate in their usual self sacrificing manner and give themselves large enough pay increases to ensure the average increase of everyone is 4%. And continue to suffer by doing this each year for ever.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
But John Armstrong is disillusioned (notable reversal in tone).
National’s softening-up exercise was so unsubtle, voters felt they were being manipulated. They did not like being taken for a ride. They did not like being treated like fools.
I'm almost tempted to start a Fake New Zealand Herald Stylebook on Twitter after reading tripe like this. If Armstrong wants to editorialise, well that's what you expect from columns -- but using the third person plural is a rather tiresome (and manipulative) attempt to give your opining spurious authority.
I'm really sorry the Budget has failed to amuse and entertain the Press Gallery, but that's not really a big priority for any sane person.
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Sacha, in reply to
the Budget has failed to amuse and entertain the Press Gallery
maybe the drugs are wearing off?
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the jump from dial-up to basic broadband didn’t enable any new services or businesses to develop?
Undoubtedly. Whether they were economically positive is another question. Are there more people working at TradeMe than used to work at all the record stores and bookshops that have closed?
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bmk, in reply to
Probably not. But the freed up cash that people have from using Trade Me will have been spent elsewhere creating jobs somewhere else in the economy. To say that broadband caused job losses I think is (or very similar to) a broken window fallacy.
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