Legal Beagle by Graeme Edgeler

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Legal Beagle: Mana update

24 Responses

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    Indeed, I'm so non-confident about making a decision, that I'm not even prepared to say it will be close.

    It may be close. Hone could win by 10%+, Kelvin Could win by 10%+.

    But feel free to make predictions of your own.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    If there is any accuracy at all in that poll that had them close two weeks ago (and that's a big if, the margin of error was something like 4.5%) then I'd say that Hone is toast.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Curtis,

    Davis and labours better organisation will see them win by less than 500 votes.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 314 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Young,

    No-one seems to be extrapolating this to other Maori electorates, currently held by the Maori Party. One wonders why...

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 573 posts Report Reply

  • bmk,

    The only thing that I can be certain of is that turnout will be low. Who this will favour I wouldn't know.

    Since Jun 2010 • 327 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to Craig Young,

    Te Tai Toka is - organising. Quietly.

    Dunno about others.

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to Craig Young,

    By which I mean each of the Maori electorates is different, and to extrapolate from Te Tai Tokerau to Te Tai Toka is not a goer, and I expect each of the other Maori electorates is the same.

    What I feel, as a Maori roll voter, is the Maori Party has had its day. Haere ra-

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • ScottY,

    I'm in the Davis camp and am hopeful he'll win, and even knocked on a few doors for him, but nobody really knows what will happen tomorrow.

    Graeme, a question you will no doubt be able to answer is this. Will you have to turn comments to this thread off at midnight?

    West • Since Feb 2009 • 794 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler,

    Graeme, a question you will no doubt be able to answer is this. Will you have to turn comments to this thread off at midnight?

    Well, I won't be...

    Everyone, please avoid using the words "National", "Green", "Mana", and "Maori" (among others) on the Internet for the next 17 hours and 39 minutes.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Craig Young,

    No-one seems to be extrapolating this to other Maori electorates, currently held by the Maori Party. One wonders why…

    Extrapolating what?

    We have no real idea what will happen.

    Whoever wins, you will be able to make a credible argument that it is a good thing for both Labour and the Maori Party.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Young,

    Well, yes, obviously there are questions about the possibility of low turnout, relative strength and resilience of rival party organisations and infrastructures in the respective electorates. If Party A wins, then it'll probably be seen as being on the way back. If Party B wins, then it will have won its first major test, although if it's narrow, then that will be questionable. As for Party C...

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 573 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Graeme Edgeler,

    Everyone, please avoid using the word... "Maori"... on the Internet for the next 17 hours and 39 minutes.

    We shall call them 'natives' for the duration, sir.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Craig Young,

    If Party A wins, then it’ll probably be seen as being on the way back. If Party B wins, then it will have won its first major test

    If Party B wins, then Party B may stand in other 'native' electorates in November, splitting Party C's vote and allowing Party A to do better overall.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

  • bmk,

    Interesting as I drove through Whangarei this morning three different cars had a party flag being flown from them. Is that allowed?

    But I don't care either. I don't really understand the rationale behind the whole 24-hour thing.

    Since Jun 2010 • 327 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Graeme Edgeler,

    other 'native' electorates

    well played

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    please avoid using the words “National”, “Green”, “Mana”, and “Maori"

    A pity, because I wanted to discuss driving in a [redacted] car whilst listening to [redacted] radio on my way through Plimmerton to [redacted] to visit a [redacted] friend.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to bmk,

    Interesting as I drove through Whangarei this morning three different cars had a party flag being flown from them. Is that allowed?

    It is not.

    I got a blue party leaflet in the mail today. Even though it was in Wellington, I'm not sure that's allowed either.

    edit: I should check before concluding conclusively, that the party flags were party flags, and not, for example a Tino rangatiratanga flag.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

  • bmk, in reply to Graeme Edgeler,

    Considering I was concentrating on driving I couldn't say decisively either. Though I do remember seeing a word at least one of them.

    So could a party use a plain colour as a form of legal advertising on an election day? For example when they take their billboards down could they just replace them with a billboard that is a solid colour?

    Since Jun 2010 • 327 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    You can display "ribbons rosettes and streamers" on your person or on a "vehicle in party colours". So I guess it may hinge on whether the car was red, white or black (or would a Maori Party car need to be red, white *and* black)?

    I'm wondering how s.197 of the Electoral Act gets interpreted to conform to the BORA. If one made a statement asserting ones personal support for a party, is that "influencing voters"?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • bmk, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    I thought the BORA basically had no significance to other laws. So that if the BORA grants you the right to free speech but another law prohibits certain acts of speech then those certain acts of speech become illegal.

    But I'm not a lawyer so am probably wrong about this but I remember something like this being explained to me by a lawyer once (though I could well have remembered it the completely wrong way around).

    Since Jun 2010 • 327 posts Report Reply

  • Islander,

    Hone has won, apparently---

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to bmk,

    I thought the BORA basically had no significance to other laws. So that if the BORA grants you the right to free speech but another law prohibits certain acts of speech then those certain acts of speech become illegal.

    Absolutely not the case. Although in a situation like this where a lot of very specific things are banned the BORA may not be able to assist, when a more general statute is being applied, the existence of fundamental rights guaranteed by BORA can make a substantial difference.

    I’m wondering how s.197 of the Electoral Act gets interpreted to conform to the BORA.

    I doesn't. At least not by a Court and not yet. Very few charges are laid under this provision, and never for anything of the nature we're worried about.

    That said, it is entirely proper for the police to take account of free speech and other rights before even laying charges.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    You can display “ribbons rosettes and streamers” on your person or on a “vehicle in party colours”.

    How can our electoral laws have been updated umpteen times in the last couple of decades, but this bit of language still be stuck in the 1960s?

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Kyle Matthews,

    How can our electoral laws have been updated umpteen times in the last couple of decades, but this bit of language still be stuck in the 1960s?

    1950s.

    But yes ... despite MMP, and the EFA and the new bits of the Electoral Act post-EFA, our electoral laws are very much the same as they were under First Past the Post.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

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