Hard News: We still died at each other's hand
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I was thankful to see an article in Granny last year about how the long-term homicide rate in NZ is declining. We're in the bottom quartile of the world for murders-per-10,000, and always have been. The year-on-year figures have significant variability, but the trend, contrary to what the likes of McThicker and Garrett would have us believe, is downward. To find a place in the US that has similar or fewer murders per year than NZ (that's absolute, not per-capita), one has to look at places like Honolulu (population: less than Auckland), or smaller. Nowhere with a similar population in the US, UK, Australia or Canada is anywhere close to NZ, or even Auckland if one compares cities with similar populations.
Murder is the classic indicator of violent crime trends, since it tends not to suffer from reporting bias or changes in how statistics are gathered, but rarely do we see any acknowledgement from the media that this violence trend is unarguably in negative territory.
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BTW, can anyone actually find the verbatim quote about the moon from King? I've tried, but the only actual quotes I can find are these
And while someone is doing that, could someone confirm (or rebut) my vague memory that she made those comments at a presser outside an active crime scene?
I don't know about anyone else, but I expect politicians of all stripe to try and spin crime stats to their advantage. I'd just rather they not use crime scenes as a background.
Also, I've seen no reason to change my view that CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION should be prominently tattooed on the faces of all journalists, politicians, lobbyists and spin doctors. Purely as a public service mental health warning for the rest of us.
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I don't know about anyone else, but I expect politicians of all stripe to try and spin crime stats to their advantage. I'd just rather they not use crime scenes as a background.
Come on Craig, where else are you going to find reporters other than at a "Live Cross"
@ Matthew
Got references for those figures?
Just the sort of stuff I like to throw back at people who are trying to scare me into voting for ACT. -
Also, I've seen no reason to change my view that CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION should be prominently tattooed on the faces of all journalists, politicians, lobbyists and spin doctors. Purely as a public service mental health warning for the rest of us.
In something of the same vein, you may enjoy this.
(That said, there are plenty of causative arguments to be made re: higher murder rates in summer. But it would be nice to see people make them more explicitly.)
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In something of the same vein, you may enjoy this.
Oh... I would love it if every poll included a "Don't give a shit" option.
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@craig. fine line on causation re: moonlight and lunacy.
police reportedly step up patrols on full moons.
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Summer would also team to be a good time for pitch-fork wielding Waikato farmers to throw their weight around and teach those townies a lesson or two.
Turns out he had 11 Guns, to go with the pitchfork. Maybe he had a licence. No doubt someone will use it to fuel the fire of arming the police, because that's gone off well for them so far. Actually, that was probably too many puns (unintentional I swear) for one sentence to handle. Carry on.
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Summer would also team to be a good time for pitch-fork wielding Waikato farmers to throw their weight around and teach those townies a lesson or two.
I have all sorts of memories of similar events, though on a smaller scale, when I worked for Telecom. There seems to be something in the water in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty that makes farmers say "Sure I'm stopping people from getting their services back by refusing access, but at least I'm free! Or something..."
It was particularly rich when the damage to the network was caused by said farmer's post-hole digger, etc in the first place.
I find it interesting that Transpower is required to keep trees, etc clear from their lines themselves-other networks tend to place that particular requirement on the landowner.
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And while someone is doing that, could someone confirm (or rebut) my vague memory that she made those comments at a presser outside an active crime scene?
I don't know about anyone else, but I expect politicians of all stripe to try and spin crime stats to their advantage. I'd just rather they not use crime scenes as a background.It was the scene of a gang-related shooting incident (not homicide) in South Auckland.
The summer-of-murder meme was well underway by then -- are you saying she should have refused to answer any questions on it? That would've backfired pretty handsomely, I think.
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Annette King and the Moon.
This is the best I can find and if this is all there is then it is a case of DPF making shit up.http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2008/01/annette_king_blames_the_moon_and_the_sun.html
In which he links to this as his proof.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10489791
Police Minister Annette King yesterday visited the scene of the shoot-out in Flat Bush, south Auckland.
She said the hot summer and full moon were to blame for the recent "unusual events" that had created mad January in south Auckland.
"It's well documented within the police - and we've had a long hot summer - and the view is that we often get things happen in this month that we wouldn't have happening in winter."
Family and economic stresses of the festive season added to the strain.
"Over the holiday Christmas period we traditionally have an increase in family violence, people are at home, and there are the stresses and strains of having your relatives staying and financial pressures. They are not easy to address issues unless we ban Christmas and January."
There is no direct quote about the moon.
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@craig. fine line on causation re: moonlight and lunacy.
police reportedly step up patrols on full moons.
This has been debated for years, but it seems to be pretty well debunked (see here.) Police step up patrols because they've heard of the myth, too, not because of any actual causal link - or even real correlation - anyone can find.
Maybe he had a licence.
I'm pretty sure he did and the police revoked it; they can do that whenever they want, I believe.
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Also, I've seen no reason to change my view that CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION should be prominently tattooed on the faces of all journalists, politicians, lobbyists and spin doctors.
Yes, although I tend to think that correlation does imply causation, it's just unclear in which direction, or to what extent, what other causes there are. A better one might be "DON'T CONFUSE CAUSE AND EFFECT". Although in this case, it's pretty clear that crime doesn't cause summer or full moons. So a correlation (if there is one) does actually suggest something noteworthy is going on.
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Yes, although I tend to think that correlation does imply causation, it's just unclear in which direction, or to what extent, what other causes there are. A better one might be "DON'T CONFUSE CAUSE AND EFFECT". Although in this case, it's pretty clear that crime doesn't cause summer or full moons. So a correlation (if there is one) does actually suggest something noteworthy is going on.
You also run into the ambiguity of the word "imply": the technical sense (X therefore Y) and the informal sense (X suggests Y). One of the main reasons "Correlation does not imply causation" comes to be so misused is that the first meaning is usually intended, but the second is usually read.
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@lucy whaaaat? don't go spoiling my well-worn excuse for being crazy with your so-called-"sciencing".
and a correlation of any strength is still correlation, regardless of cause. if it's summer, people could still freak out and murder. the cause is irrelevant in light of the correlation itself.
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So a correlation (if there is one) does actually suggest something noteworthy is going on.
Not necessarily. Ben, meet Mexican lemons. Also, pirates prevent global warming.
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Although in this case, it's pretty clear that crime doesn't cause summer or full moons. So a correlation (if there is one) does actually suggest something noteworthy is going on.
Well, coming from Canada the correlation is pretty bloody obvious to me... freezing, driving rain and pitch dark... does anyone want to go out and commit crimes? Not really, they'd rather it was balmy, dry and not so dark... like perhaps a moonlit summer night?
There's a very funny passage in Lady Oracle, where the main character - a little girl who has been bullied by and left tied to a bridge by her fellow Brownies ("good knots" remarks her eventual rescuer) is worried that the town pervert will come by and expose himself. She doesn't realise, the narration goes, that any sensible flasher will be in some warm bus depot somewhere and not out exposing himself in the freezing Canadian winter night.
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[Redacted]
Question: Does any of that make the slightest bit of sense?
Answer: No, so I deleted it. -
I've been having moon arguments on the internets for nearly ten years now. First time around was with someone who said you couldn't deny the moon's influence, look at the human menstrual cycle. Ok, I thought, it might average out at 28 days but you have a huge variation between individuals and even when the cycle's the same length, we're not all in sync with any particular moon phase. Big old myth though.
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Come on Craig, where else are you going to find reporters other than at a "Live Cross"
Have I told you lately what an evil bastard you are, Barnes? One day my head will explode, and then you'll be sorry. Or not. I won't be around to notice.
In something of the same vein, you may enjoy this.
I do, I do...
(That said, there are plenty of causative arguments to be made re: higher murder rates in summer. But it would be nice to see people make them more explicitly.)
I'd also like to see complex and highly contested arguments not dumbed-down to seriously misleading soundbites, but I'm still waiting for Viggo Mortensen to kick down my door and shag my brains out. One impossible dream at a time...
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Ok, I thought, it might average out at 28 days but you have a huge variation between individuals and even when the cycle's the same length, we're not all in sync with any particular moon phase. Big old myth though.
The page I linked to also points out that the lunar cycle is actually 29.53 days, so they're not even the same.
Is it not possible for things to be both 'correlated' and 'causative', without one precluding, or presupposing, the other?
No; because all causative links are also correlated, but not all correlations are due to causation. I imagine you would find it quite difficult to find a causally linked but entirely uncorrelated pair of data sets. But you're right insomuch as correlation does not imply causation unless there is a damn good causal hypothesis.
Well, coming from Canada the correlation is pretty bloody obvious to me... freezing, driving rain and pitch dark... does anyone want to go out and commit crimes? Not really, they'd rather it was balmy, dry and not so dark... like perhaps a moonlit summer night?
And this is why the myth is so pervasive: it's one of those ones that Just Makes Sense because of the *apparent* numerous causal hypotheses. Trouble is that the correlation isn't actually there in the first place.
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Now, I don't want to get all philosophic on your collective arses, but the whole cause and correlation thing is fairly tricky. Correlation can weakly suggest a causal influence, but unless you have an account of the mechanism that is all you really have; weak suggestion.
Correlation can be perfect (we have correlation if and only if an event of the first type occurs when and only when an event of the second type occurs) or it can be high (we have correlation if and only if, for the most part, an event of the first type occurs when and only when an event of the second type occurs), and it's the former most people want to talk about when they say correlation suggests causation. Working out the direction of causation is, of course, somewhat difficult. For example:
1. Events of the first type cause events of the second type.
E.g. Pressing the light switch happens just before the light comes on.
2. Events of the second type cause events of the first.
E.g. When the street lights come on, the sun goes down.
3. Sometimes events of the first type cause events of the second type and sometimes it is the other way round.
E.g. When my partner gets angry, I get angry.
4. Events of both types are among the causal results of some third type of event.
E.g. People in Wellington start getting out of bed at the same time that people in Auckland start getting out of bed.
5. Coincidence
E.g. You get superstitious causal claims, especially when the probability of an interesting event is low or the event happens infrequently.
Then , if you can work out that you have a cause and effect pattern, and the order of causation, you need to work out what version of 'the cause' you are working with. Is it:
1. The special condition which, given the laws of nature and standard background circumstances, brings about a type of event.
2. The condition whose presence enables a suitably placed, suitably resourced person to bring about an event of a particular type.
3. The condition which a normal observer could remove from a situation in order to prevent an event of a certain type.
4. The condition in virtue of which we hold somebody responsible for the occurrence of an event.
Long story short: media reportage of 'causes' should be taken with a grain of salt unless the writer explains what kind of causal relationship they think holds and can also provide a good argument for that being the state of affairs.
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So a correlation (if there is one) does actually suggest something noteworthy is going on.
Not necessarily. Ben, meet Mexican lemons. Also, pirates prevent global warming.
But both of those are arguably noteworthy: Mexican lemon transport improves at the same time that transport in general in the US improves, and piracy decreases with rising global prosperity, while carbon emissions increase. Just because A doesn't cause B doesn't mean that A & B aren't noteworthily linked, possibly by cause C, or possibly the arrow runs the other way.
But it all gets metaphysical very quickly, and things with names like Bayesian and frequentist appear.
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Umm, is this mansplaining? Anyway, it certainly cleared things up for me ;-)
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Have I told you lately what an evil bastard you are, Barnes?
Love you too Craig. ;-)
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While I'm here can I get your pigeons to look after my cat for a while?.
I had an old Mate back in the UK, who whenever someone complained about it being a cold and wet windy night, he'd say " Good night for a burglary".
His explanation for this was that when it's cold and wet and windy it is good cover for those sneaking about.He had thoughts about people with high walls around their houses too. "once I'm over that wall I have all the time in the world to break into that house" he used to say with a wicked smile.
So, while you sit in your house with its high security walls and gates when that wind starts a howling and the rain a starts a squalling, lock your doors pull down the shutters and be afraid, be very afraid.
:-|
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