Hard News: Spring Timing
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To kick things off: overwhelmingly younger people do not participate and so their concerns are addressed less than those of the older generation who do.
People can encourage everybody under 30 to enrol. It's not hard. Anyone who is 17 now can "pre-enrol" and they'll be automatically transferred to the main roll the day they turn 18.
Factoid: anyone born 20 Sept 1996 and thus turns 18 on the day of the election, can vote as long as they have pre-enrolled.
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(and, let’s face it, New Zealand First)
Yup, and without repeating myself that's another ride on the bullshit merry-go-round I'm not going to enable. Sadly, the media's bad bromance with Peters is going to be doing enough enabling for all of us.
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but if it’s in the position of having to do the same for Colin Craig and his Conservative Party – and that position is only a matter of a couple of points of support – things might get a little more tricky.
Yeah, sorry… still not seeing Colin Craig being “gifted” East Coast Bays or Upper Harbour anywhere outside the media’s damp and excitable imagination. McCully has one of the largest majorities in Parliament, and a solidly supportive (and very well-heeled) electorate organization. If you think National is going to nuke that for the dubious charms of the Conservatives, I've got a second harbour bridge to sell you.
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Actually, McCully has ruled that out in a media release in Stuff.co.nz. One wonders if the Nats want that particular tea appointment to get cold, given that Colin Craig is far from the undiluted fiscal conservative that the lazier members of the straight media would like us to believe. Here's my latest little nail in the Con Party coffin...
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Emma Hart, in reply to
still not seeing Colin Craig being “gifted” East Coast Bays or Upper Harbour anywhere outside the media’s damp and excitable imagination.
This is my one prediction for the election: The Conservatives will not get a seat. They will get, however, a great deal more media attention than they warrant.
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... but I hope they drag NZ First under the 5%.
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But even after a string of bad polls for the Opposition, the actual numbers will end up closer than that.
Another thing to consider is that most of the major pollsters predicted an outright Nats majority, and all of those predictions proved off the mark. It remains a moot point as to whether pollsters have failed to adapt to the mobile age.
And Murray McCully stepping aside in East Coast Bays for Contentious Craig would have looked a tad too contrived, given his electorate's long-term loyalty.
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Mr Craig is actually a huge threat - to the Government. National won the last election and the one previous on the back of a lot of soft support, with a high concentration of votes from young women. They are just one group whose support declines the more that Craig's Conservatives are linked to Key's National. It's a toxic brew, and the PM is well aware of it, which is why he is gently criticising Craig in order to maintain a distance (which may later be bridged, as necessary).
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I'm not convinced this is apathy so much as the current opt-in, address based enrolment system.
Older voters typically spend several years at an address and will receive regular enrolment reminders from the electoral commission. Once you've responded to one, they then track you through changes of address (via NZ Post, etc) and you typically stay in the system without much effort.
This doesn't work as well with new voters who haven't established an initial registration.
It would be better to proactively register all NZ citizens and permanent residents using data matching - the government already has details of births and migration which could be turned into a list of everyone eligible to vote (with a very small set of exceptions). Then voters could turn up at any polling booth, produce *either* id or an Easyvote card, confirm their address and cast a ballot.
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I think it's worth noting, at least in my opinion, there's a number of factors benefiting Labour this time compared with last. Firstly, I think Labour will campaign much better this election under Cunliffe compared with Goff (no disrespect to Phil). Secondly, National has a lot more political baggage to defend. Thirdly, as Mike Williams has been saying, Labour's membership is up on the back of the leadership contest. Lastly, McCarten's arrival will be a boost.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
I think it’s worth noting, at least in my opinion, there’s a number of factors benefiting Labour this time compared with last. Firstly, I think Labour will campaign much better this election under Cunliffe compared with Goff (no disrespect to Phil).
Let alone Shearer. Cunliffe did sound convincing talking about campaigning this morning. The problem may be that less engaged voters still don't seem to like him.
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Euan Mason, in reply to
Let alone Shearer. Cunliffe did sound convincing talking about campaigning this morning. The problem may be that less engaged voters still don't seem to like him.
Cunliffe should note how successful JK is at dissembling and smiling when faced with a difficult issue. He has a downturn of phrase that sounds like a mate in a pub who is somewhat disinterested in politics and would prefer to talk about rugby. This actually goes down amazingly well with many people.
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Moz,
The question of whether certain Labour members will be able to resist putting the boot into The Greens is, as always, open. They still have their hard-core "I would rather die than share government with The Greens" members, and there's a very real risk of public hissy fits. The problem is less that it is a distraction, as the suggestion to tactical voters that there is no point voting for either party as they will not be able to form a government together. Hopefully Cunliffe can follow his defeat of the ABC's with a firm quieting down of the "rather be in opposition" crowd.
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I've now been told by two people that the timing has been influenced by a sharp dip in National's (and Key's) internal polling. It's sure not showing in the public polls.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
The question of whether certain Labour members will be able to resist putting the boot into The Greens is, as always, open. They still have their hard-core “I would rather die than share government with The Greens” members, and there’s a very real risk of public hissy fits.
Shane Jones doesn't even seem to be trying to keep a lid on it. But I do think most of his colleagues will be more constructive.
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Euan Mason, in reply to
I’ve now been told by two people that the timing has been influenced by a sharp dip in National’s (and Key’s) internal polling.
Welcome gossip. Let's hope it's true.
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The Roy Morgan numbers look pretty soft when it comes to the small parties. On a 997 person survey, a percentage-point is just ten people. So it’s hard to get much from the bouncing around of Mana, Mäori, Conservative and even NZ First numbers (when you’re on 0-3% you’re always in the margin of error :))
Hard as it is for me to accept, close to 50% of the electorate have liked Key, and been happy with this Govt, for the last 6 years. If their popularity is dipping, even a little* it’s still been a remarkable ride.
*they are very aware their relatively popular govt has a slender majority, and with even a small dip in their vote would struggle to stay in Govt. -
Richard Aston, in reply to
To kick things off: overwhelmingly younger people do not participate and so their concerns are addressed less than those of the older generation who do
I am really interested in non voters and why they don't vote but there is not a lot of survey work out there on this. The Electoral Commission did a survey post 2011 election that doesn't seem to shovel much of a glimpse into the reasons.
This survey by Stats NZ is a bit better with the following non voting reasons;
1 More non-voters in younger age group. 18–24 years 42%
2 People with marginal incomes , 28 % said they did not vote,
3 Unemployed people less likely to vote 35 % of unemployed people did not vote.But a very interesting take is a paper by Jack Vowles (Victoria University), on the steady decrease in voting since 1945. He developed a model that predicts the level of non voters. Its complex but he says the key reasons for not voting are;
close elections at which the two major parties posed clear policy alternatives enhance turnout, while elections where the outcome is not in doubt and where party policies closely converge produce low turnout
He goes on to say much of this comes down to public perceptions of how close the election might be
The public may tend to under-estimate the closeness of elections because of a focus on the two main parties and consequently less attention to coalition options because of the campaign’s focus on the two major parties, particularly since the 2005 election
I can kinda understand that, "Why bother voting for party Y if it looks like party X will get in anyway"
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George Darroch, in reply to
I’ve now been told by two people that the timing has been influenced by a sharp dip in National’s (and Key’s) internal polling. It’s sure not showing in the public polls.
My rule of thumb is that (outside the three months preceding an election) it takes about a month for any change to show up in the polls. People take a while to digest news and shift preferences, and to talk to the people they know. The most important determinant of a person's vote is the other people in their life.
Key is National's brand, in the same way as Clark and Muldoon were to their parties, and as a result they are extraordinarily vulnerable. That they haven't decoupled by now is testament to a lack of any 'big' policy achievements they can point to and be proud of, and the lack of other high-profile performers.
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Here is my one election prediction.
1. We are dooooooooooomed.
I really hope I'm totally wrong about that.
PS If my neighbours set off celebratory fireworks after National wins, like they did in 2011, I am going to... passive-aggressively not wave to them when I'm coming out of my driveway ever again. So there.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
Shane Jones doesn't even seem to be trying to keep a lid on it
Shane Jones should give it up and go and be CEO of his slave-fishing operation again.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Hard as it is for me to accept, close to 50% of the electorate have liked Key, and been happy with this Govt, for the last 6 years. If their popularity is dipping, even a little* it’s still been a remarkable ride.
*they are very aware their relatively popular govt has a slender majority, and with even a small dip in their vote would struggle to stay in Govt.I think that sums it up well.
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… need the Greens to deliver
There’s going to be lot riding on that. Fortunately for both parties, there are at least 2 groups the Greens can reach that Labour can’t.
Young people (ok, Labour a bit).
National voters (this happens. The Greens do not have an entrenched left-of-labour footprint).
And of course, disheartened Labour voters.
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llew40, in reply to
The question of whether certain Labour members will be able to resist putting the boot into The Greens is, as always, open. They still have their hard-core “I would rather die than share government with The Greens” members, and there’s a very real risk of public hissy fits.
Shane Jones doesn't even seem to be trying to keep a lid on it. But I do think most of his colleagues will be more constructive.
This is one of my strongest recollections from the last election - the entrenched tribalism which culminated in a palpable sense of 'those Greens have stolen our votes' entitled blarings from the party faithful.
It will be be one of the most interesting threads in the campaign, Labour and Green absolutely need each other to win. There is a history of - maybe not bad blood, but certainly a sense of Labour taking the Greens for granted. And a poltically clever incumbent who will be looking to tie them together at every possible opportunity. How Cunliffe and Norman/Turei play this dynamic will be fascinating.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
How Cunliffe and Norman/Turei play this dynamic will be fascinating.
Maybe Grant Robertson will have a role to play there too. He seems capable of collegiality in this area.
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