Hard News: Some Lines for Labour
326 Responses
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I don't really care about primates bearing their teeth and grinning.
Key smiles so much because the management of the economy is a joke and he gets it - after all it isn't his money - and he is laughing at his own joke.
The latest joke is that based on Treasury forecast wages are going to increase rapidly – treasury really know and their the growth forecasts are so right you can bank on them.
They are expecting the public sector to show restraint but they all appear to have their snots in the public trough and swilling back hard.
I consider the government are borrowing more than they actually need, more than they are spending. The deficit in tandem with the level of govt indebtedness (which is in part being increased cynically in my view) will be used to justify privatisation of power generation (even though the govt earns more from power generation than the cost of borrowing) and PPP in a range of things.
Key’s Diplomatic Protection Squad overspend ($800,000) and Wellington Residence makeover ($275,000) has accounted for $1 million in two foul swoops. To put it in perspective - if someone earning say $40,000 pays approx $7,200 in tax then you need 112 of them to cover the Diplomatic protection Squad over spend.
So I see this National government as presently taking the effort of working people and slapping them in the face with it - the irony is that the last election was a race to see who could bribe the best. This upcoming election may be about the definition of who is and who isn’t rich and deserving of Family Support & PPPs.
I find it interesting that Infratil has bought Shell (they have made so much out of Public Transport in NZ - just as Stagecoach did prior to them - that they are rolling in it) – and I don't think it is a coincidence we have the "Zed" advertisements (on TV showing us all walking hand in hand to a better tomorrow - hurl) leading up to a budget (the election precursor) that will have an emphasis on PPP as the only way for infrastructure development.
The returns that private enterprise are going to want from PPP are going to be around 20% and climbing - I note that since it was formed Infratil in 1994 has delivered returns from infrastructure investment that average around 18% pa.
The upside for “infrastructure developers” is that they are playing with safe money and won’t get into difficulty if there is a crisis or downturn in the banking sector or financial markets – their bulk funding source (the govt) is invulnerable and the excessive returns are guaranteed by the tax payers who will pay the prices for power, roads, schools, communications etc that will deliver the likely 20% plus returns.
I can only see the government changing if the Greens and Mana do really, really well - The answers by way of a Mana, Greens, Labour coalition will be interesting.
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The latest joke is that based on Treasury forecast wages are going to increase rapidly – treasury really know and their the growth forecasts are so right you can bank on them.
And as JK said…
"There is a degree of putting one’s finger in the air when it comes to things like this.
I feel like doing that every time he opens his mouth.
How can we take this guy seriously? The only way for wages to rise and “outstrip” inflation is for prices to decrease in relation to that rise, Will this government achieve that? Tui moment… -
Islander, in reply to
Interesting idea – but not among baboons as a generalisation. As I wrote earlier, I know a bit about chimps (& gorillas) but have only a passing knowledge of other primates aside from our own species.
I’m sorry, I mis-spelt Shirley STRUM’s name.
Among other primates – depends very much on the primate involved. We might very well mistake a male bonobo’s concilatory gesture of offering it’s penis as something quite else…I.e – like anything else to do with primates, in-group language & behaviours is all-
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Islander, in reply to
I don’t really care about primates bearing their teeth and grinning.
You can learn an awful lot about our species from learning about our very close relations. Go read Franz de Waal’s “Chimpanzee Politics” for a starter-
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On other matters - Key is saying the "budget will forecast higher wages"- WTFWTF?
I can forecast higher financial pain for most ANZers with more credibility than that mouthfart.
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Sacha, in reply to
a Mana, Greens, Labour coalition
.. will require them talking amongst themselves. Any sign of more respectful relationships yet?
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
On other matters - Key is saying the "budget will forecast higher wages"- WTFWTF?
For anyone with a Swiss account, that is.
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Islander, in reply to
O. Feel silly. Of course.
(Runs away into the financial outer dark.)
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Key strategy - Grin and Spin
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Gareth Ward, in reply to
On other matters - Key is saying the "budget will forecast higher wages"
Wow, read "our forecasts will be based on a significant uptick in tax revenue from higher wages and yet there'll still be a massive deficit". If those forecasts are wrong, then the 2012 Budget will be even uglier...
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Sacha, in reply to
read "our forecasts will be based on a significant uptick in tax revenue from higher wages and yet there'll still be a massive deficit"
It did sound rather familiar, yes. Yet many people will be cynically suckered into thinking its all about the earthquake unless the opposition and media pull their socks up and challenge English and Key every time they lie about it.
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Not wanting to pre-empt the Budget thread that will no doubt appear here soon, but The Standard have a post that references Keith Ng's fisking of the previous Budget, and quotes Bernard Hickey on the latest forecasting chicanery.
"Every economic forecast by the Treasury underestimated the impact of an epic change in the way New Zealanders think about debt and spending.
In May 2008, Treasury forecast growth rates for the next three years of 1.5 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 3.2 per cent. Instead, we got -1.1 per cent, -0.4 per cent and -0.1 per cent."
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Keep in mind also that we’ve been here before. Last budget the Nats told us that the tax cut bribe was “broadly fiscally neutral”. Hidden in the fine print, and dragged in to the light by Keith Ng, was that fact that they made the claim on the basis of, you guessed it, projected growth.The tax cuts were supposed to cause growth (they didn’t), and the growth was supposed to pay for the cuts (it didn’t). Now here we are with record borrowing and debt instead.
So just remember, when we hear tidings of good news and a return to surplus, that it is all based on growth which is at best hypothetical. At worst it’s just wishful thinking from people with a three year record of being wrong wrong wrong. The whole budget edifice will be a castle built on air.
Personally, I'd argue that 'at worst' it's actually bald-faced lying by politicians who know exactly what they are doing.
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Gareth Ward, in reply to
The tax cuts were supposed to cause growth (they didn’t), and the growth was supposed to pay for the cuts (it didn’t). Now here we are with record borrowing and debt instead.
Not a big Standard fan, but that's a pretty good summation.
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Sacha, in reply to
They're even canvassing alternatives.
Like lemmings we’re accepting National’s framing of the budget, and marching even faster to our economic doom. Very few economists or commentators are questioning the slash and burn mind set, and looking at the alternative. Yes, there is an alternative. We can reject reductions in spending, and look at raising government income instead. Raise revenue how, I hear you cry?
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3410,
I guess economists are like lawyers too, huh?
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3410,
canvassing alternatives.
Could we have that link again, Sacha?
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Sacha, in reply to
Doh. Caffeine, stat..
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And more on Budget alternatvies from the Greens.
Severe cuts risk recession. More borrowing risks a credit downgrade. We can instead raise more revenue and, in the process, help shift the economy onto a more steady footing.
Instead of selling off the last of our best state assets to raise one-off revenue, we could instead introduce a range of eco-taxes to put a fair price on carbon, water, and waste, using market signals to switch the economy to a more sustainable future.
We can introduce a comprehensive tax on capital gains (excluding the family home) which would raise revenue to help balance the books while benefiting the productive sector and making homes more affordable.
Meanwhile, a clear majority of New Zealanders have indicated that they're prepared to pay a small temporary levy on their income to pay for the rebuilding of Christchurch. So why are we adding $5 billion more to a record deficit instead?
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
For lack of a better analogy, the upcoming budget - and the prevailing economic orthodoxy in general - could be thought of as reducing the cost of producing a car by getting rid of the side impact beams, instead of the air-con unit. We know the side beams will insulate the driver from an act of Murphy's Law, but it's inconvenient to swelter in a car on a hot day, and the air-con manufacturers have vested interests.
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Sacha, in reply to
reducing the cost of producing a car by getting rid of the side impact beams, instead of the air-con unit.
More like selling the engine to overseas financiers who will lease it back to us with interest. Cos it worked so well in the 80s and 90s, eh.
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Labour list candidate Jordan Carter seems to get it.
Two primary drivers of people's actions are the two most powerful emotions we feel: hope, and fear. The side of politics that gets the balance of hope and fear right wins elections.
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But we need to keep running the big picture. It's the only way to remind people that our vision of New Zealand is their vision: a place where everyone has the chance to get ahead. If we don't tell them that's what we stand for, then our opponents will fill in that blank. They'll misrepresent us, to put it politely, in ways that harm our interests and advance theirs.
It's also the foundation of the "hope" part of our pitch. There's plenty to be frightened of from the current Government, and Labour is well able to summon up that fear. But we need hope too, and hope is founded on our vision of a better world. We need to put it front and centre of our politics.
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More like selling the engine to overseas financiers who will lease it back to us with interest.
too true ...resulting in this kind of debacle
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Gareth Ward, in reply to
And more on Budget alternatvies from the Greens.
That really is excellent (although DPF's critique of the big hole in their minimum wage modelling does hold - they've ignored the drop in the company tax take that will accompany it)
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Che Tibby, in reply to
Every economic forecast by the Treasury underestimated the impact of an epic change in the way New Zealanders think about debt and spending.
i had lunch with some forecasters from another-financial-department-that-isn't-treasury on sunday.
i told them i was glad it was them we were lunching with, because if it was treasury bods we'd have half as much food and have to pay twice as much for it.
they laughed.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
they laughed.
me too :)
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