Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Prospects

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  • Matthew Poole,

    And how long did it take Labour to get through three Prime Ministers?

    Yes, not very long. But one of them resigned in disgust, over Roger Douglas of all people. Only the replacement of Goff is vaguely comparable, and it was hardly the midnight rolling of Bloger in the middle of a term.
    Get back to me when National manages to keep one person as leader for 15 years, thanks.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    JohnA

    The Maori Party would be crazy to give National confidence and supply without huge concessions. Lose your virginity, you want the keys to the Porsche, not just the ride.

    Clear lesson from 4 previous post-election deals: the voters don't care about ministers being in or out of cabinet, about confidence & supply or any other details. That's for politics junkies (us).

    You go with the government, or you don't. Not a sophisiticated understanding, sadly, but that's how it's presented and perceived. As our new PM would put it: explaining is losing.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1332 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    *googles expresso-tini*


    And now I am trying to work out how I can get back on speaking terms with several of my friends who I told in no uncertain terms to piss off with their gloating text messages last night.


    Ah fuck 'em, they can come to me.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    One thing I've liked about Hide (maybe the only thing) was that he did the opposition thing right - called the govt on things and kept them honest (not so much this term though) - in a way that the Nats really didn't

    In particular the way he railed in Birch's instruction to the IRD to attack regardless of the human (and indeed, often fiscal) consequences. I've always give Hide credit for that and it's a huge stain on the IRD and their political masters at the time.

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3283 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole,

    In particular the way he railed in Birch's instruction to the IRD to attack regardless of the human (and indeed, often fiscal) consequences. I've always give Hide credit for that and it's a huge stain on the IRD and their political masters at the time.

    Yes, that is one thing for which Hide is fully entitled to kudos. The IRD is, considering their raison de etre, quite pleasant to deal with. It's a shame he'd rather demolish ACC than give them a kick in the pants, though.
    Interesting that PWC reported that ACC delivers more, at a lower cost, than comparable schemes overseas. Shame that the ideologues don't give a damn about outputs, it's all about the show.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    To me, this National victory is a a victory for the ugly New Zealander, the boorish provincial mysogynist, the bullying white male, for the snearing tall poppyism of the kiwiblog sewer.

    Well said Tom I think that would make a great Tee shirt skogan. ;-)
    Also, I think you may have been the first person on this forum to use the word "VIM" (apart from, maybe, Craig. Who has used nearly all the words in the multilingual lexicon. sometimes even in the right order ;-))

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    SLOGAN GRRRR
    EDIT BUTTON CACTUS HEADS

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    Opener Simon Katich struck an unbeaten 92 to move Australia to 189 for two at stumps.

    Well. That was the score at the time of writing. I wasn't into predicting things at that point. As well you may know, my predictions for the outcome of the debacle of the election were as wrong as the people who voted for Rodders in Epsom. GRRRR.
    Well, it is a nice sunny day and if anyone cares to join me I am off to Galbraith's for a well deserved pint of Bellringers Best Bitter or maybe a Bitter and Twisted. From this point I shall try to take my bitterness in Hop form. I shall do my best to refrain from yelling obscenities from the car as I drive through Epsom.

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    I would steve but I have no idea what you look like.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    I would steve but I have no idea what you look like.

    Old and hairy, Just ask at the bar.

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite,

    It's raining - bloody government!
    (Italian proverb)
    Heh. For a second, I had visions of a downpour of men in grey suits :-)

    Only if it were a Belgian proverb.

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 982 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks,

    Well. That was the score at the time of writing

    My point being that I don't think it was. My first post last wherein I mentioned the score had them at 280/6, and that came before your post with Katich still in. I was watching the cricket live (mostly) instead the election. Unless I'm just confused as all get out, which is quite possible. I can't be bothered re-reading the sequence of posts - this thread is already too long.

    Everyone: Cure your hangovers by getting drunk again. If you don't have a hangover, get one.

    Well, it is a nice sunny day and if anyone cares to join me I am off to Galbraith's for a well deserved pint of Bellringers Best Bitter or maybe a Bitter and Twisted. From this point I shall try to take my bitterness in Hop form.

    That's the spirit!

    I have no idea what you look like.

    Old and hairy,

    Will that narrow it down?

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1165 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks,

    fuck it... my first post last night

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1165 posts Report Reply

  • Che Tibby,

    Gee thanks, Che. :-)

    ah, but we never worked "together". i did get shafted by a member of your office though...

    one who shares the name of a famous new zealand poet.

    the back of an envelope • Since Nov 2006 • 2042 posts Report Reply

  • Bevan Shortridge,

    Last time the Maori Party were "the last cab off the rank".

    This time round Tariana Turia is in the middle of being interviewed on TV3 last night when the camera cuts suddenly to go to Corporate Cabs leaving Key's house...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 122 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Matthew: I was mentally graphing the Party loyal responses to Key speech. The falling away of excitement was distinct as the speech went on. The glimpses of the audience was anything but animated as it went on and down. A good successful speech for winners goes up a notch, up another notch, then crescendo!!!! Like sex I guess.

    Yeah, I think he ejaculated prematurely too. That part was good, I did indeed feel he and his supporters enthusing. But there was a bit of a scary patch where he seemed more enthusiastic than them, and the claps got out of synch with the peroration. The network cut to some duschbag interrupting history around then, and we flipped channels to squeeze out another 2 mins. I was quite bitter on our media last night. I mean, sure, it's not politically interesting who Key is thanking at great length, but it was his moment, and that of the people he was thanking, and well earned. Were they doing it because they thought he was choking? Not their choice to make IMHO, this guy was giving us his first address as PM-elect and they cut it off. Grrrrr.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Robyn Gallagher,

    I got a fright when I saw a colour-coded electoral map in today's SST - so much blue!

    Then I realised something - all the Labour seats were in urban areas, specifically the traditional "four main centres" of Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin. Oh, and Palmerston North.

    I'm not sure what this says about New Zealand.

    Raglan • Since Nov 2006 • 1946 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    Robyn: that's mostly always been true - reducing the number of electorates for MMP smushed some cities and country bits together, but really little has changed

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2622 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Litterick,

    Then I realised something - all the Labour seats were in urban areas ... I'm not sure what this says about New Zealand.

    It says that our main assets are food production, scenery and Kiwi ingenuity. That's why you'll never see a farmer on a bike.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1000 posts Report Reply

  • Shep Cheyenne,

    Time to celebrate the positive, no more NZ First! :)

    My theory for the drop off in their support has nothing to do with the scandles, Winston thrives on them. It has everything to do with the cold snap that passed through and so more of his supporters passed off their mortal coils prior to the election.

    There should be a bloody great kick up the bum to the Labour Party Central Body who've inflicted Burns on Christchurch Central.
    They passed over the best candidate for their Wellington insider and almost lost it.

    On the positive again, Marc Alexander (Ex UF now Nats) missed Wigram and can now get back to cooking me some eggs.

    Since Oct 2007 • 927 posts Report Reply

  • Jerome Kerviel,

    The network cut to some duschbag interrupting history around then, and we flipped channels to squeeze out another 2 mins.

    Same thing happened when Paul Henry interrupted John McCain's concession speech to give his inconsequential opinion on the matter, which I found similarly rude and boorish.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2008 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    @Robyn: me too.

    I don't begrudge the Nat's their win. I'm thankful for the last nine years (of course I have some worries for the next three years). I'm pleased however, that Labour's renewal is well advanced. 12 new members, some exceptional, will ensure the Opposition is energetic.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • millsy,

    Hi all, long time reader, first time poster.

    Well, I have been famous for my so-called rants over the past few years, especially since 2004/2005. I dropped off a little after that, but life kinda got in the way...

    Anyway, I just want to share my thoughts on what happened. Firstly, I am fearful greatly for this nation. National alone, or even with Peter Dunne, I could live with. Barely. Its what ACT will extract out of National that worries me. I saw Roger Douglas' rant on TV3 last night and though, here we go its going to be a nasty few years. Then you have plutocrats like Boscowen, who seems to think that multi-millionaires giving cash to political parties in exchange for policy concessions somehow equates to freedom of speech. And you also have David Garrett, who if he had his way, will turn New Zealand into a Clockwork Orange style police state. The Maori Party I wouldnt trust that much either....to me its all about the brown ripping off the brown. All this talk about unbundling to me is just about handing buckets of taxpayer funds to the Maori elite to provide a substandard service to poor Maori who quite frankly deserve better than patronisation. I really hope I am proved wrong, but if you take the economic crisis into account, we are going to see Roger-nomics and Ruthanasia part 2.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    On Winston, like him or loathe him, he does bring forth issues that really need to be debated, such as immigration, and the level of foriegn control over our economy. And it has to be conceded that he has delivered on a few of his promises over the course of his time on the political scene. He has also been a competent foriegn minister,establishing a good relationship with the USA. I actually belive that the reason behind his concession and bowing out is because John Key might have promised him the role of Ambassador to the USA if National won the election behind the scenes. I might be wrong, and it is simply because he realised that his time had come to do. I dont have any strong feelings about him either way, I think he has been both a blessing and a curse, and his departure will be a loss. I would expect to see NZF dissolve and bleed off its membership to Labour and National (Ron Mark I think will end up on a National party ticket in 2011).

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Labour looks to have been left in good shape for the next 3 years. There has been a lot of young people coming in, and a lot of them have progressive left views, as well as a smattering of centerists. Also looks to be a broad base of people, from unionists like Carol Beaumont, to centerist businesspeople like Shane Jones. Labour has firmly closed the door on Rogernomics, and might just tack slightly more to the left, indeed as it had done over the past 18 months or so...Helen Clark knew what she was doing when she stepped down, she wanted a fast bloodless transition in the leadership, rather than one dragged out till 2009/2010..A new Labour leadership team will take some time out to have a break over summer, and then get stuck into taking on National in the new year. Labour are going to go all out to make sure that National only last one term. I am picking that Phill Goff will be leader (he has the experience if nothing else), Maryan Street will be deputy, and Cunliffe will be finance spokesperson. I think a lot of the old gaurd such as Mallard who have been liabilites will be shunted off to the back bench and out the door in 2011.

    I dont think that Helen and Michael will go their full term. Ill give them both 18 months. (I wonder if Andrew Little will contest Mt Albert after Helen goes?)

    As for Jim Anderton, the guy has spent 15 years rotting on the opposition benches. He says that he intends to serve out his full term, but some how I doubt it. He will be gone in 18 months time.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The smacking parties (Kiwi, Family and so on) fizzilled, which can only be good. It goes to show really, when push comes to shove smacking isnt actually a big deal.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Its also a good result for MMP, as we have a clear indication of what sort of result we are going to have. Without the uncertainty of previous elections, I think that this result is going to give MMP a better reputation among the voters, and if a referendum is held like it has been suggested, I think MMP will stay, if only by a small margin

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It would be fair to say that the Maori Party is here to stay, and they might be able get all 7 seats in future, and pick up a few party votes as well...without HC, Labour may be more receptive to the idea of working with the Maori Party in future. And despite what the right may think, Maori party, especially those on lower imcomes or from a working class backgrounds go for Labour. Their system of owning land and the like is collective, In Maoridom it is generally about sharing.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The right won this election, fair and square, no doubt about that. John Key has run a good campaign, selling himself as the ordinary bloke, the man of the people, His wife is beautiful, and his children are well mannered, he is an ordinary family man, as opposed to the dowdy childless and emotionless Helen Clark. He has presented himself well on television, and lets face it, he holds himself well. Hes going to have a hell of a time handling Roger Douglas though...

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    And the last word is with the Greens. I look forward to seeing them go from strength to strength in the future, and I hope that Kennedy Graham gets in on the specials, that would give them a strong voice.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It was always going to be a big ask for a 4th term, and I think the mood for change had been ingrained. There is an old saying that governments lose elections, and I think that Labour lost this election more than labour won it. I think people got sick of Helen and swapped her for John. Plus there is all that stuff about greed and that which I am not really going to go into there..

    Well then, that is that....hopefully Russell, National wont cancel your show on TV7 and replace it with some reality show about bachelorttes getting extreme makeovers or something....

    New Plymouth • Since Nov 2007 • 2 posts Report Reply

  • millsy,

    When I say " dowdy childless and emotionless Helen Clark." I mean that it what a lot of people perceive her to be.

    While I do not once for a moment think that she is the greatest prime minister NZ has had, I would have to say she is up there. I think my biggest regret is that she went to UF in 2002 rather than the greens. I think things would have panned out very differently.

    New Plymouth • Since Nov 2007 • 2 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks,

    huff huff huff...

    just caught up on the posts I missed last night/this morning.

    Craig:

    BY the way folks, if you're expecting me to counter bitter, nasty and patronising with equally bitter and nasty gloating, I'll be happy to oblige with the following...

    Have a nice morning nursing the hangover and pissing on the hundreds of thousands of your fellow citizens who had the unmitigated cheek to vote in a manner which you, in your infinite wisdom, do not approve of.

    Fixed it for you!


    (On the other hand) Islander:

    I am a reserved and non-public person...

    ...who made abrasive statements on a public forum, you do realise?

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1165 posts Report Reply

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