Hard News: Prospects
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And I'm sorry if this offends Joe Wylie once more, but if certain sections of the left don't like being compared to the right-wingnuts that make Kiwiblog such a nasty place they shouldn't behave like it. Work though the whole Keubler-Ross deal, but don't take too long about it.
Craig, once you move to the beige pastures of the land of the fun run and sausage sizzle your days of being offensive are behind you. You may still give rise to a little bemusement with a convincing impression of a supercilious prick, but on your track record it's a passing thing. Trotter can't help himself. You know better.
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He's no Barack Obama, but I very much doubt that he's GWB either.
Gee, not even that good eh? You sure are a hard woman Deborah.
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Many Of Obama's Harshest Critics Now Rushing To Praise Him...
Bachmann: Obama's Victory "A Tremendous Signal"...
Palin: "God Bless Barack Obama"...
Lieberman: Obama's A "Genuine Patriot"...
Bill Kristol Congratulates ObamaFunny, innit - from the moment of Clinton's first victory as President the Reublican machine painting him as Public Enemy No. 1 went into overdrive. Obama just doesn't seem to have the Slick Willie-type baggage that makes those sort of attacks stick.
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Awww, sorry - should I have added an LOL to my previous post? My point (and HuffPo's too, I suspect) was that the very people who spewed the most venom about Barrack (a terrorist Muslim who doesn't love America and doesn't have any executive experience) are now suddenly rushing to praise him as a patriot blessed by god and great for America.
Considering some of the teeth-gnashing going on here today I merely wondered (tongue-in-cheek) if sober heads would prevail eventually?
"The Left" should be happy, given the economy. If Key doesn't have it all 'fixed' in 3 years time there will be a massive swing back. Labour have dodged a bullet. Given his priority is get re-elected in 3 years (IMO) I doubt he's going to do too much damage until year 4.
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Rodney thinks Roger should be finance minister because those are the skills Act has to offer the country? Oh oh. Thanks Epsom.
Thanx Goodoh, we've been waiting for you. ;-)
I was thinking, as I woke up this morning with a blue moon in my eyes, I have to drive through Epsom later today, will I be able to resist shouting out of the car window "Thank you Epsom, you bunch of C LI N T S" -
"The Left" should be happy, given the economy. If Key doesn't have it all 'fixed' in 3 years time there will be a massive swing back. Labour have dodged a bullet.
Very true John, I have been saving that one for when I have finished venting.
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The people have spoken, the bastards!
(California legislator Dick Tuck, 1970's)
Still, I can't really share the doom and gloom. If McCain & Palin had won I'd be so angry I'd be joining the Weather Underground. When Key wins I just enjoy the weather.
This will sound like I'm plagiarising Pangloss, but ... I honestly think there are plenty of silver linings here for the left-leaners among us. Ever since 1993, there have been parties for people to cast a cop-out vote for, with NZ First and United Future the main vehicles. Now the personality parties are effectively dead. Good.
At the next election people unhappy with the government will vote Labour or Green. No mucking around with false prophets. (Yes there is the Maori Party, but they are either going to get into bed with the Nats and get a terminal STD, or oppose the Nats and be part of the alternative government next time round. The National - ACT - Maori love-in will be a crockery throwing contest long before Bill English's first budget).
The only obstacles to this rosy secario for 2011 are new breakaway parties from National (e.g. Bible Bashers For Bashing) or Labour (The "Fuck Off Goff" Front), going down the well-worn path of using an electorate to oppose the people who put them there. In theory, this might happen, but after last night, there aren't many potential defectors in Labour with a safe seat to fall back on.
Labour ran a dumb campaign, attacking a guy the public wanted to like. Too soon. But the voters won't like him much in three years' time - which means his caucus won't like him much either. Not when the polls are going to put them out of a job.
So all Labour have to do is stay sane, and not indulge in the kind of blood-letting the left have often loved. Keep on good terms with the Greens and Maori Party, and wait for electoral gravity.
PS Anyone see Stephen Joyce & Roger Douglas on Agenda? Short version: Douglas says review the promises, Joyce says we'll keep them. That's within hours. Now just add three years ...
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Douglas says review the promises
Oh, of *course* he does. <hurl>
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And what the hell is a secario? Bring back the sub-editors I downsized ...
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We will see, though sad to see Pharmac, and Investment of Kiwisaver in political hands. And ACC!. The very thing that made these orgs world famous, was their freedom from political interference. Sighs sadly. :(
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But the voters won't like him much in three years' time - which means his caucus won't like him much either.
You're giving him the full three years? We're talking about the fifth leader of the National party in the last 12 years. Labour's had one. Just one. Rolling leaders is what National does best, and there are still plenty of members of the National caucus who would love nothing more than to install Roger as Minister of Finance and get the 1990s kick-started for round two.
Rodney thinks Roger should be finance minister because those are the skills Act has to offer the country? Oh oh. Thanks Epsom.
Cite? I desperately want to believe that that's not been said in public, but my inner realist is too scared to believe that it hasn't.
Oh, and don't thank me. I didn't vote for them!
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We even had a right nat voter mention to us this morn that "Actually Helen Clark was a bloody good PM afterall" I wonder at which point he decided that last night.
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(Yes there is the Maori Party, but they are either going to get into bed with the Nats and get a terminal STD, or oppose the Nats and be part of the alternative government next time round. The National - ACT - Maori love-in will be a crockery throwing contest long before Bill English's first budget).
I think the MP will give the Nat's confidence and supply and that will be it. And smiles and a "let's agree to work together on key issues".
Key said last night he told Turia they would have a 'dialogue' this week. Contrast that with his comments about Act and UF.He has enough seats, he doesn't need the MP, and there will be those within saying why compromise? Entrenching Maori seats is off the table, at best he may agree not to pursue removing them. With Turia and Sharples leaving by the next election, there are many in National/Act worried about how 'radical' the MP may become.
I'm guessing the MP will be 'involved' in Maori Affairs but it will be an open relationship with either side free to call it quits at any time.
Douglas says review the promises, Joyce says we'll keep them.
I suspect we'll have a mini-budget in December, just as Labour were planning. At which time it will be "OMG" and all bets are off and the books are opened (or certain pages to suit) so the nation can understand why National is throwing out it's promises and starting again.
This will be interesting given that Labour may also be selecting a new leader at around the same time. -
so the nation can understand why National is throwing out it's promises and starting again
FWIW - I always suspected Labour would be doing the same if elected.
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Craig. In case you hadn't noticed today IS 09/11/08. I think Trotter was being ironic, with his usual dubious choice of analogies.
Steve: With that much ingenuity on the table, can you be my bargaining agent the next time I want my overdraft extended. :)
The people have spoken, the bastards!
(California legislator Dick Tuck, 1970's)
I prefer P.J. O'Rourke's "Democracy is a fine and wonderful thing worthy dying for -- but like many find and wonderful things worth dying for, it also makes you wish you were dead."
"The Left" should be happy, given the economy. If Key doesn't have it all 'fixed' in 3 years time there will be a massive swing back. Labour have dodged a bullet.
And might be loading another one, depending on what kind of leadership shakes out. I actually believe the Greens when they say, even if they can't support a National-lead government on confidence and supply matters, neither are they going to oppose for opposition's sake.
I've said through the whole campaign both National and Labour were letting their mouths write cheques their arses couldn't cash as far as I could see. Key might well surprise me; but if Labour is thinking they can just sit by, watch this country slide in a depression and expect to be welcomed back with open arms... Well, I think they might be disappointed.
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You're giving him the full three years? We're talking about the fifth leader of the National party in the last 12 years. Labour's had one. Just one.
And how long did it take Labour to get through three Prime Ministers? Seriously, Matthew, Labour really needs to smarten up if they think (as I've said above) they're going to be thanked for egging on economic disaster. Labour (and the Greens to a lesser extent) have their own risks ahead.
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The people have spoken, the bastards!
(California legislator Dick Tuck, 1970's)
It's raining - bloody government!
(Italian proverb)
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I always suspected Labour would be doing the same if elected.
You may well be right. But Labour's promises didn't include "We won't be selling any state-owned assets in our first term."
Rearranging operational spending, deferring tax cuts (bit hard when some have already been legislated), and trying to bring forward major capital expenditures to kick-start the economy may not have been what Labour campaigned on completely, but they weren't going to rush off and sell shit. National, on the other hand, has its history agin it on that count. -
"...So all Labour have to do is stay sane, and not indulge in the kind of blood-letting the left have often loved. Keep on good terms with the Greens and Maori Party, and wait for electoral gravity..."
This is the thing - labour isn't a demoralised or dispirited organisation. it's full of vim and energy and has got lots of enthusiastic supporters. I think that is why the disbelief and disconnect is palpable. But also means that the party will be off the ropes and up and at National from day one. Labour's got unfinished business, and dare i say it - some of its supporters (including some here) who have allowed the complacency of incumbency to dull their political fires a bit might just find the next three years a time that re-ignites their political flamethrowers.
I know saying "What did we do to deserve this?" sounds naff, but I remember the sense of Fin de Siècle when we finally tipped out Shipley, the turning of page in a country whose sense of self belief and self confidence had almost been ground into extinction after 15 years of hard right goverment. In more than just tangible ways, New Zealand today is much happier, better and more just place than in 1999. Nothing like that feeling pervades the country today. To me, this National victory is a a victory for the ugly New Zealander, the boorish provincial mysogynist, the bullying white male, for the snearing tall poppyism of the kiwiblog sewer.
To that end,I am chalking up this loss to the paranoid style of the New Zealand political right achieving ascendency on the back of a media induced collective amnesia.
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Craig, once you move to the beige pastures of the land of the fun run and sausage sizzle your days of being offensive are behind you. You may still give rise to a little bemusement with a convincing impression of a supercilious prick, but on your track record it's a passing thing. Trotter can't help himself. You know better.
Well, I thought a few other people around here knew a damn sight better than to call me (however indirectly) a stupid, greedy misogynist blah blah blah. (To be scrupulously fair, some of the gloating on the rightosphere is getting on my tits too.) And when, across the Pacific, even the likes of Palinista-in-Chief Bill Kristol has realise the bile-spitting is over the top there are lessons to be learned.
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A S,
It's raining - bloody government!
(Italian proverb)
Heh. For a second, I had visions of a downpour of men in grey suits :-)
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Rodney was wittering away about it on the radio this morning. It is going to be interesting to see if they do last the three years. There are some BIG egos in there. Everyone sees John Key as a nice guy - but he'll need to be tough as well. mmm
Wonder how long it will take for the scales to fall from the Herald's eyes? -
I actually believe the Greens when they say, even if they can't support a National-lead government on confidence and supply matters, neither are they going to oppose for opposition's sake.
And I expect the Greens to keep sticking their fabulous Private Members' Bills in the ballot, and keep getting them drawn out.
BTW, congratulations Craig.
I'm packing to shift and too strapped for time to pontificate properly. And I have so many wonderful questions. Who's taking over from Helen? What will she do? How long can Winston maintain the will to live without a TV camera in front of him? How big a Christie did I make of myself last night, why am I not hung over, and is the Espresso-tini the greatest cocktail in the world?
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We just called a family meeting. From now on, that thing that we use to unlock the door, it's called "our idiot Prime Minister", for short. (For long it'd be "our one term idiot Prime Minister".)
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[from me, earlier]: Last election I cast a special vote. I was overseas during the election, and watched the result on the internet from Zurich. I was a little surprised at the outcome. I wonder if I will be this time?
Nope. Not really. Well... a little at how clear cut it's all turned out on the night. I expect three years of policies not too different from what we would have had under a Labour-led coalition anyway, with the perceived success of National largely determined by things outside of its control.
Key's speech.
Unsurprisingly underwhelming, uninspiring and smug. He ain't no Obama.No Obama all right. His speech wasn't even as good as some of Palin's.
Steve, you mean about the cricket, right?
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Opener Simon Katich struck an unbeaten 92 to move Australia to 189 for two at stumps.
Nah: "Katich's departure preceded a dramatic middle-order collapse, in which the Australians lost 3-10 in 37 balls and relinquished their hard-won momentum." They ended 355 all out. They were 280 for 6 when I was watching live. I didn't watch much of the election. Too predictable. Depressingly predictable.
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