Hard News: Poll Crunch
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Mark,
Once in a while The Standard can have some genuinely informative postings. It would be nice though if they had more of that than the sometimes quite offensive hysterical writing they are prone to. Sort of like Fox News in reverse.
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Once in a while The Standard can have some genuinely informative postings.
I try and encourage them when they do. Although it should be noted that Lynn Prentice, the author of two of those posts, is not prone to hysteria.
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20 year-old Ashley Todd, reported that she had been viciously assaulted by a "6' 4" black man", who, upon seeing her McCain bumper sticker, became enraged and carved a "B" into her face to teach her a lesson. But said "B" was reversed -- much as it might look as if a person had scratched it into her own face in a mirror.
I don't know where to start with that . . .
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Meanwhile, while we're all busy pulling coalitions out of our recta and gaming polls how about those spending promises from National and Labour I just can't believe they believe can be paid for? Kudos to National Radio for thinking that deserved some coverage -- and even sceptical analysis, as far as possible. Otherwhise, the MSM seem to be asleep at the wheel. And I'm beyond pissed and just sad.
Meanwhile, wasn't the debate on One last night something of a curate's egg? Kudos to whoever at TVNZ was paying attention after the last farce, told Mark (Mo'licious) Sainsbury to plug in his spine and do his fraking job, and I can only presume had the riot act read in the green room. Not so sure anyone said anything worth listening to, but at least it could be heard.
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I was very pleased to see the poll work on wikiPedia by Mark Payne and others. It is great work.
I noted the use of the Loess factor which is all very fine from a statistical POV.
What I really want to know is what we are going the call "screw the polls" factor. There are plenty of people who will say anything to get off the phone including the opposite of what they intend.
I think the public is jaded with polling and treat it as some kind of game show with no prizes for them so the quality of their answers is always low.
I've also noted in conversations with some long term National Party supporters that they have decided to vote Green as they can't tell the difference between two centre leaning parties.
Like everyone they suspect the gloves will come off National soon enough but Labour is more predictable and while they won't vote directly for Labour they might vote Green.
I've also made a few notes of my own regarding the 8 Tribes concept which I think crosses party lines as it aims to deal with core values.
If my memory is correct we have already had 3 coalition governments where the real shape has not emerged till after the election.
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"Self-fulfilling". What's the point there, Russell? That we shouldn't hear bad economic news, only the good? There's a lot to talk about in the economy, but I'm struggling to imagine an interesting conversation coming out of that angle.
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And Mr. Payne, I was to have your babies after the Best. Poll. Analysis. Ever.
So, what do the statistics tell us about the final outcome? No bloody clue. Ask me again November 9th, when I've finished the new and improved model (also known as watching the count on election night!).
Solid fried gold.
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The Herald made the point that the biggest party not getting into the government would cause discontent. I'm sure it would with the voters for that party but it remains to be seen if the population as a whole would be particularly bitter.
I can see some point to if it a government is formed with an actual minority of party votes due to overhang. Then we'll hear 'maorimander' a lot. Serious tactical voting by Labourites could help a lot - if they voted Maori instead of Labour in the electorates, and if they voted National in Epsom to keep Hide out. It would be no more tactical than Epsom National voters voting ACT to get National in, as happened last time.
Voting National to keep National out is the kind of insanity that thresholds encourage.
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Once in a while The Standard can have some genuinely informative postings.
Let's not forget to pause to note their overtaking of public address in the NZ blog rankings :-)
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As Jim Anderton wryly mentioned last night in the minor party leaders' debate - Labour won more votes than National in 1978 and 1981 but the media didn't clamour for Labour to become government then.
And re the Standard - there is some good investigative journalism going on there currently on conflicts of interest and more undisclosed share holding by two front bench National MPs. It is a lively website and worth checking out at www.thestandard.org.nz
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The Herald made the point that the biggest party not getting into the government would cause discontent. I'm sure it would with the voters for that party but it remains to be seen if the population as a whole would be particularly bitter.
Probably not, but as I've said on another thread anyone remember the fervid post-election punditry about how "polarised" and "bitterly divided" New Zealand was? FFS, people, it was a close election not something important like the All Blacks getting knocked out of the RWC! :)
But seriously, would journalism in this country (and not just the political) be vastly improved by mandatory close textual analysis of the tales of Chicken Little and The Little Shepherd-Boy Who Cried Wolf.
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"Self-fulfilling". What's the point there, Russell? That we shouldn't hear bad economic news, only the good? There's a lot to talk about in the economy, but I'm struggling to imagine an interesting conversation coming out of that angle.
It's certainly an issue for a range of businesses if people who have their health and employment and aren't crippled by debt or negative equity stop spending money.
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Colmar-Brunton and Nielsen show significant bias towards National, TNS towards labour.
TNS showed significant bias towards Labour before the last election as well - and then turned out to be the closest predictor of the actual election results. It could be different this time around but TNS might have more of a pro-reality bias than a pro-Labour bias.
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As Jim Anderton wryly mentioned last night in the minor party leaders' debate - Labour won more votes than National in 1978 and 1981 but the media didn't clamour for Labour to become government then.
One might equally wryly note that Jim Anderton should STFU about waka-jumpers. He's really got about as much credibility left on that subject, as McCain playing the experience card post-Palin.
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The Herald made the point that the biggest party not getting into the government would cause discontent.
To be fair, tha discontent is also a pretty big reason why we got MMP. Disgust that one party could get more votes than the other and not govern was a major force in getting the Royal Commission on the Electoral System.
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I don't know where to start with that . . .
How about here: an 'O' for 'Obama' is the same backwards as forwards. Honestly, the quality of whackjobs these days...
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As Jim Anderton wryly mentioned last night in the minor party leaders' debate - Labour won more votes than National in 1978 and 1981 but the media didn't clamour for Labour to become government then.
There was a lot of clamouring, and it even led to political change, MMP stood on the back of those poor results.
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A mirror image of B is also the same as B upside down, which could be consistent with someone else holding you down and doing it. But surely O would be less ambiguous - I'd think carving B on a woman would be more likely to stand for 'Female Dog'. But it all sounds hoaxy.
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You may have other favourites you'd like to share.
OK. How about Carolyne Meng-Yee's bizarre Herald on Sunday profile of John Key's missus, Bronagh, which included these gems:
I ask if they shower together, to conserve water. "No! No, no - we don't use much water at all."
and, unbelievably:
This leads to an inevitable question - does [she] like sex?
"Arr ... err ... hello, that guy took interest in what you just said," says [Bronagh], referring to another pedestrian.
Well, do you like sex? [She] mumbles for a moment. "Well that is a personal part of my life ... and I don't want to talk about that."
Oh wait, haha, my mistake. It was in fact a profile of Peter Davis, the Prime Minister's husband. Perfectly acceptable questions, then, eh?
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But it all sounds hoaxy.
**__Sounds?__** It IS a hoax and has already been treated as such by the US media, who have kindly not made a big issue of it because the woman is clearly mad. Possibly pushed to the brink by the thought of McCain losing.
"If only I could ignite a race war ..." -
Craig, I think you would find if you asked Jim Anderton that he did not leave the party, it left him, twice
Talk about a waste of space, interesting that suicide is now a bigger killer than road deaths but know one must mention that word !
The good news is that I have been in central NSW for the last month and not a word was heard on NZs election...bliss
Plenty of red wine though -
Oh wait, haha, my mistake. It was in fact a profile of Peter Davis, the Prime Minister's husband. Perfectly acceptable questions, then, eh?
Well, as I said on Kiwiblog both stories were tacky as the carpet in a sex-on-site club after a heavy night but it's hard to feel any sympathy for Davis or Key. After all, I assume they're literate enough to be familiar with the genre and weren't forced to participate at gun point?
Anyone remember Judith Steinberg, who said she had a busy medical practice and thought that would be a more constructive use of her time than doing mindless photo ops with her husband, Howard Dean? She caught a lot of shit for just having some self-respect, and suggesting the media should focus on the chap who was actually seeking the Democratic Party nomination for the Presidency of the United States, but she was right.
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Wingnut season alright. McCain said the c word on live US TV. The 2008 Republican campaign is a lesson in how NOT to win an election.
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umm how do you hold someone down from above their head?
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Craig, I think you would find if you asked Jim Anderton that he did not leave the party, it left him, twice
And Peter Dunne has announced a post-election preference, and until then will be honouring his agreement with Helen Clark to the letter. Jim should just get the fuck over himself, and give his statement that he would be quite happy working with such illustrious waka jumpers as Tariana, Winston and Jeanette it's about time he just got over it and moved on.
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