my gut also says, "ur walking close to da lyne".

Hey, I don't mean that as any way disrespectful to Clark. Like her or not, you've got to respect that she paid her dues in a party where (as they say in Boston) politics ain't beanbag. You've also got to…

so, it's over craig. we'll have to go our separate ways.

gut says, "phone those melbourne bookies and put a C-note on the nats"

well, let me say that i just heard the prime minister speaking on the radio about the john key "neutron bomb".

what i heard in her tone of voice was, "this wasn't my stupid idea".

Fairly or not, the organ-grinder gets in trouble when her monkey starts throwing its poo…

what i heard in her tone of voice was, "this wasn't my stupid idea".

i'm thinking that a year from now we'll look back a go, "that was the…

McGrath: "Oi, Brandes, why the hell are you so fat?"

Brandes: "Cos every time I fuck your wife, she gives me a biscuit".

James Ormond : "Maybe not, but at least I'm the best player in my family"

Hughes to Robin Smith: "So, does your husband play cricket too?"
...

Hughes: "You can't f---ing bat!"
Smith: "Merv, we make a fine pair. I can't f---ing bat and you can't f---ing bowl."

Sledge of the century?

I'm partial to "Hi Ian, how are your wife and my kids?"
An Aussie wicketkeeper to Botham, I think.

Shane Warne : I've waited two years for another chance to humiliate you.
Daryll Cullinan : Looks like you spent it eating.

Sledge of the century?

Shane Warne : I've waited two years for another chance to humiliate you.
Daryll Cullinan : Looks like you spent it eating.

I think we found the person who's going to sub for Hadyn during the cricket season.

We do make a good team. Haydn doesn't like cricket, oh no, and I love it, yeah.

I'm seriously hoping the Australian's get flogged but I still don't see the Blackcaps being competitive when they get here.

We are pushing Bangladesh.

Right up there with 'you know what it looks like, you go find it'.

I think we found the person who's going to sub for Hadyn during the cricket season.

I thought the attribution was Glenn McGrath v. a Kenyan batsman?

Zimbabwean

Glen McGrath, employing gamesmanship tactics tried to get under the skin of Zimbabwe player Eddo Brandes. He ran up to Brandes during a follow through and enquired: "Oi, Brandes, why the hell are you so fat?" Without missing…

Giovanni, I'm assuming you mean Shane Warne?

I thought the attribution was Glenn McGrath v. a Kenyan batsman?

The pithy retort that never occurred to Glenn McGrath.

Giovanni, I'm assuming you mean Shane Warne?

This has always mildly puzzled me. If you're doing it even close to right that should result in a net weight reduction.

This is the female school of thought that has a man burning 3,000 calories a shot? And I thought men had ridiculous expectations...

On Hagel: Agreed, a voice of sanity and a Republican one at that was welcome. And there maybe very good reasons for his ineffectiveness, with the party giving him just enough leash not to throttle his voice but no more. After all, the Bush/Cheney hasn't been shy with stonewalling…

This has always mildly puzzled me. If you're doing it even close to right that should result in a net weight reduction.

The pithy retort that never occurred to Glenn McGrath.

Politician A: Why are you so fat?
Politician B: Coz every time I sleep with your wife she gives me a biscuit.

This has always mildly puzzled me. If you're doing it even close to right that should result in a net weight reduction.

And they're possibly fair criticism. I'm not putting Hagel up for sainthood, but I'd be a damn sight more comfortable if there were more people like him and fewer Sarah Palins around. You think Palin's going to be irrelevant after next Wednesday? Wouldn't be so sure, because I'm sliding…

I suggested elsewhere that the next round of "live" election debates should be put on a fifteen second delay, like talkback radio

No, I reckon they should be like the stump mikes at cricket to pick up the sledging that doubtless goes on:

Politician A: Why are you so fat?…

We have misunderstood, misread, misplanned and mismanaged our honorable intentions in Iraq with an arrogant self-delusion reminiscent of Vietnam.

I never got the slightest whiff of honorable intentions in Iraq. That's the biggest part of the self delusion. The misunderstanding, misreading, misplanning and mismanaging would not be any more honorable…

No wonder you don't see real corruption when it winks at you with a cold dark staring eye.

Indeed not, Steve. Real Corruption will have to spring for cocktails, dinner and dancing afterwards, and cab fare home. I'm a slut, but not a cheap one.

The man is in it…

No wonder you don't see real corruption when it winks at you with a cold dark staring eye.
You seem to think this behavior, not only normal but to be commended.
The man is in it for the power not the principal.

Huh? Sorry, I don't get what you're on…

But he doesn't toe the Christianist party line on abortion and other social issues with sufficient fervour, therefore he's been shat on so many times it shouldn't surprise anyone he's had enough.

No wonder you don't see real corruption when it winks at you…

Hagel announced last year that he isn't standing for re-election

That gives him another year, no? And that's going to be a pretty big year as far as the GOP infighting is concerned. But yes, you're right, insofar as he's marginalised himself by not endorsing McCain and won't be leading…

Do you know something we don't? Have you spoken to his doctor?

Hagel announced last year that he isn't standing for re-election (despite winning re-election in 2002 with 82% of the vote). He might stay involved in politics (and there are those persistent rumours he'd be offered Defence in an…

And it's a bloody shame someone like Hagel isn't going to be around to start the fight to take back the GOP.

Do you know something we don't? Have you spoken to his doctor?

LOL why the hell is Hagel a Republican?

Well, Ben, perhaps Hagel thought (and perhaps still) thinks the GOP can be a principled conservative party that deserves to run anything more complicated than a cake stall. And it's a bloody shame someone like Hagel isn't going to be around to…

Sen. Chuck Hagel is on board.

But this is what's so fucked up about the GOP. Anywhere else on this planet (including New Zealand) Hagel would be considered firmly on the centre-right. He's a hawk, but a reality-based one. But he doesn't toe the Christianist party line on abortion and…

The Herald ever so slightly redeems itself by broadcasting the doubting voice o Rudman – "When silver and bronze beat gold"

Even when I'm inclined to agree with Rudman he rolls out the clichés with such pompous fatuity it's tempting to just say "anything Brian's for, I'm against on principle".…

Sen. Chuck Hagel is on board.

Dude owns a voting machine company.

Simplicity is always worth striving for in any system, especially a tax system.... but when the alternatives are filing no return and paying the current rate of tax, or filing a return to get a huge deduction/rebate/benefit.... you know what most people do, right?

As it happens, as an…

The sniping about MMP is a smokescreen for the critics' inability to adjust to the new rules. They're talking horse racing when the game is now chess.

Obviously one would need to file if you wanted to file jointly – and the simplest solution ends up with a cheque at the end of the year (rather than your employer doing something…

but the concept of three tax tiers, income splitting etc are ones I support.

How would that be simpler than the current system? You'd have to file a tax return to split a couples income (and who would be allowed to do that? Would one be able to share income…

Who knows?

Well, I suppose, but a poll shouldn't be a shot in the complete dark, no? Unless they come out and say it, which they won't.

I still think we're arguing at cross purposes. I'm not advocating getting rid of the information about undecideds – that's crucial data about…

]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 08:56:02 +1300 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/hard-news-poll-crunch/?p=76120#post76120 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/hard-news-poll-crunch/?p=76120#post76120 Gio

Well, you'd be wrong then on election day, wouldn't you?

Who knows? I still think we're arguing at cross purposes. I'm not advocating getting rid of the information about undecideds – that's crucial data about the quality. But the extrapolation is not something to throw away either, and it…

]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 08:37:35 +1300 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/hard-news-poll-crunch/?p=76119#post76119 https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/hard-news-poll-crunch/?p=76119#post76119

Send the judges out to work in the fields!

Oooh, I've seen this movie! Can I be the hot but sadistic warden who turns a tropical paradise into a hell of perverted appetites? Watch out Sian Elias!

Forget all this limp-wristed namby-pamby nonsense about charges and so on.

Send the judges out to work in the fields!

McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral: Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted

And on the 10% who are undecided voters:

Undecided voters are less educated, less affluent, and somewhat more likely to be female than the average voter. Nearly half of undecided voters (48%)…

Sedition's for girlymen. It's treason or nothing.

Pshaw... you're a fricking pussy, Brown. Burn 'em all at the stake and let Joseph Michael Savage sort them out. Forget all this limp-wristed namby-pamby nonsense about charges and so on.

Reading Trotter's rant, I'm very glad we repealed sedition.

Sedition's for girlymen. It's treason or nothing.

Of course, Mr. Trotter's respect for the New Zealand constitution etc, doesn't extend to that tiresome convention you actually have to hold a fair trial before convicting anyone of treason.

Or indeed, that parties should obey electoral law.

"Courageous corruption", anyone?

Reading Trotter's rant, I'm very glad we repealed sedition.

If media outlets sympathetic to National’s cause attempt to cast as illegitimate the formation of any coalition government which leaves National sitting on the Opposition Benches, they will be guilty of engaging in activity subversive not only of the…

procatalepsis

Sounds like something I suffered from after my third pregnancy.

Gio, I would indeed say that. I'd also mention the large error ratio. But in absence of information, and wanting a prediction, what other result would you pick?

Well, you'd be wrong then on election day, wouldn't you? And it's quality of information we're talking about. If a poll has…

I'm voting for disingenuous by the feeble-minded.

The Herlad clearly want to condition people for a return to FPP in the referendum they clearly expect from the national victory they yearn for.

As newspaper go.....they have moved over into propaganda.

gio I'm not sure if we're talking at cross purposes.

I think Giovanni has it right.

To me, by divvying up the undecideds and apportioning them out appropriately, they're throwing away a useful piece of information.

If candidate A is on 43%, and candidate B is on 40%, candidate B…

potential sources of error or bias such as a non-representative sample-design, poorly phrased questions, people lying or refusing to respond, the exclusion of people who could not be contacted, or miscounts and miscalculations."

Another consideration, which is beginning to be acknowledged by some pollsters, is the dependence on land-line telephone…

Gio, I would indeed say that. I'd also mention the large error ratio. But in absence of information, and wanting a prediction, what other result would you pick?

But isn't the insistence on prediction sort of self-defeating? At that sort of level of undecideds (even at the current NZ levels…

It's certainly an issue for a range of businesses if people who have their health and employment and aren't crippled by debt or negative equity stop spending money.

stop spending money???
that's just outrageous!
healthy people, employed people, not-severely-indebted people,
suddenly decide to stop spending money for no reason other…

I don't think we're not trusted with the information. I think it's more a case that most people are not so picky…

gio I'm not sure if we're talking at cross purposes. When you take a poll with the intention of trying to make a prediction you have to extrapolate the missing information.

I don't see why. In the US – where the reporting on such things is a lot more sophisticated,…

Are you sure that was Winston? I was rather surprised at what a cock Jim Anderton was being on occasion — interjecting, having an exchange with a third party (loud enough to be picked up by his mic) while someone else was speaking.

Yes, Anderton was the unimpressive culprit later,…

"..remains wide open with 19%..."

That would change the way a story is written... instead of "National leads" or whatever, it would be:

__"while xx may be xx points ahead, the outcome of the election remains…

You can always list them as undecideds, as they do in the US of A.

Right, but if it's your intention to predict an outcome, undecided is not one of the options selected at the polling booth by those kind of numbers, so you have to work out how to…

I advocate water pistols. Or maybe just pistols.

Better still, threaten to push the play button on this:

http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=XC73PHdQX04

Three strikes, you're out.

I advocate water pistols. Or maybe just pistols.

Not sure what else you can do

You can always list them as undecideds, as they do in the US of A.

And did you notice Winston's mic volume coming back up every now and then, after it had obviously been turned down? Though not the couple of times he coughed loudly over the top of Jeanette Fitzsimons.

Are you sure that was Winston? I was rather surprised at what a cock…

that was my thinking. undecideds can jump any old way – I think that to just lump 'em in proportionally is very odd.

Not sure what else you can do – they just form part of the margin of error calculation. Is there data on what undecideds have historically done?

Look, for example, at the One News Colmar Brunton Oct 4-9. The undecideds in electorate vote rose by 5% to 17%. And rose again…

I think procatalepsis is my favourite, though.

And speaking of rhetoric, what is the Greek word for what he's doing in that speech? (Apart from logic, I mean). It's a little bit epistrophe, a little bit antithesis... a dollop of procatalepsis... I love it,

I don't know what half these words mean but I know I like…

And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem with that at all.

Not everyone thinks National intends to keep the status quo on the Families Commission.

FTA:

Speaking to a gathering organised by anti-gay Family First, National…

If the gift of rhetoric consists of the ability to take what from anyone else would sound sappy and hokey cliché and turn it into inspiration and belief then my goodness, that Obama has the gift.

Just watched the video – he's preaching! Reckon he got a rocket from his…

Tax simplicity is nice. Drowning the government in the bathtub so you can give a couple of billion to the rich isn't.

Indeed – the numbers in front of those three percentage signs in his tax table aren't the right ones (nor the thresholds at which they apply), but the…

McCain just looks old and tired and Palin mean spirited when they go up against that sort of speech making.

Nope, they do that just by going up against themselves. When this is all over, could they junk the Rove-bot and release the man I used to respect? As for…

Oh wait, haha, my mistake. It was in fact a profile of Peter Davis, the Prime Minister's husband. Perfectly acceptable questions, then, eh?

You need Peter Williams.

When asked by Paul Henry this morning to ask Steve Williams how much he was worth, he said the question was "vulgar" (nice…

Yes, although so far this scenario has been played entirely inside your head, it has to be said – I wouldn't mind seeing it tested in reality. Not saying you're going to be proven wrong, necessarily, but we'd have to just see.

as I said, it's my inner pessimist (as…

I'll take that further and admit to a surprising respect for a few of the policy platforms that he proposes – tax simplicity etc is particularly appealing to me.

Tax simplicity is nice. Drowning the government in the bathtub so you can give a couple of billion to the rich…

Much more convincing than your insistence that the Greens might not do what they've said. You might well be right. But I don't think it would take long for the public to get tired of it ...

My inner pessimist says that the public would get very tired of it…

My curiosity was piqued by the juxtaposition of a supposed major oil find with the UnitedFuture policy that the stuff…

Sanity in Alaska. Who would have thought!

Well, I never held any prejudices about the sanity of Alaskans. At least, not until I heard about Palin.

I'm no fan of Dunne himself, but I think credit is due to the commission.

I'll take that further and admit to a surprising respect for a few of the policy platforms that he proposes – tax simplicity etc is particularly appealing to me.
Of course that's then u-boated by…

Sarah Palin's home state Anchorage Daily News endorses Barack Obama

Sanity in Alaska. Who would have thought!

Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother

And here was me thinking that a Loess smoother was a type of earthmoving equipment specialised for wind-blown soils.

That was mighty.

Good lord was it what.
Interesting to note the closing out music though... pretty sure that was Mr Wonder – Signed, Sealed, Delivered? Stoked that he's dropped the country rubbish and gone back to what's awesome about America (yes, I'm looking forward to Thursday) but that's a…

Which couldn't be done within the Ministry of Justice like the rest of crime prevention?

Or the Ministry of Social Development?

I guess so. Except it wasn't. Even if you don't see a need for the commission, it seems churlish to deny that it has executed an important project well.…

Jaysus! Does Wishart know?

I get it now. Ewww on me. :) Along with, though I'd love to see the Wishart expose on Tairana Turia's Marxist bi-sexcapades. Just not after a full meal.

McCain just looks old and tired and Palin mean spirited when they go up…

Which couldn't be done within the Ministry of Justice like the rest of crime prevention?

Or the Ministry of Social Development?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_K8SvhItZg

That was mighty.

And in case Flash embedding is broken (it's working for me on that clip, but not on others — I'll get that fixed) click here.

Depending on how the poll that counts shakes down, the Maori Party could get better results from the cross benches.

Discuss.

If they're genuinely a centrist party you mean? In the mould of the European centre pivot parties? Perhaps. It's not been a strategy successfully implemented in NZ thus far.…

The commission's big job in the past couple of years has been developing and executing the family violence campaign. Everything I've seen tells me they've done a notably good job at that.

Which couldn't be done within the Ministry of Justice like the rest of crime prevention?

Depending on how the poll that counts shakes down, the Maori Party could get better results from the cross benches.

Discuss.

Much more convincing than your insistence that the Greens might not do what they've said. You might well be right. But I don't think it would take long for…

I'm relieved to see that the Davis interview raised others' ire.

It was excruciating and devoid of a single redeeming feature. The journalistic equivalent of an ice-cream induced brain-freeze on a summer's day.

"I get alone with John Key and {a slight pause} Helen Clark."

Jaysus! Does Wishart know?

Dunne's announcement now rules that out. So the potential appeal of UF for the party vote has been approximately halved.

Not if people buy the current narrative that National has it in the bag. People wishing to moderate excessive power might be tempted to vote Labor instead of common sense-in-chief.

And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem with that at all.

Yes, if things look grim now imagine where we'd be without the Families Commission.

Oh very droll. The commission's big job in the past couple…

I'm loving the merry dance that the Maori Party are doing.

It was a truly beautiful moment when Turia was asked who she "got on" with. "I get alone with John Key and {a slight pause} Helen Clark." And she did it with a perfectly straight face. Damn, I do…

And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem with that at all.

Yes, if things look grim now imagine where we'd be without the Families Commission.

I think Dunne is being perfectly honest that, in his view, any plausible Labour-lead government will be neither inclined, nor able, to progress the issues he sees as priorities.

And I also suspect he has received an assurance as to the future of the Families Commission. I've got no problem…

Yes, but if you're a centrist and are afraid that National might cozy up too much with Act, you vote for the moderating influence and the Socratic wonder that is United Future.

Perhaps, but that notion of a moderating influence used to apply to Labour-oriented centrists too.

Dunne's announcement now…

What waka has Jeanette ever jumped from/off?

I think it would be fair comment to say that whatever strained and rather awkward group-hugging went on last night, there's still some bitterness around the Alliance split. Anderton floats though life in a bubble of serene, doubt-free self-righteousness I'm not sure whether…

But yes, now it's clear to anyone who was pondering UF for their party vote (all 3 of them, haha): if you want National, you may as well vote National — if you want Labour, you definitely shouldn't vote for UF.

Yes, but if you're a centrist and are afraid…

Dunne hates the Greens and any Labour government would have a very strong Green component. I'm also guessing that Dunne will have a better cabinet post than Minister of Revenue under Key. The Nats don't have much talent these…

What waka has Jeanette ever jumped from/off? As far as I recall she's always been a Green Party member, whether inside or outside the Alliance. (And the decision of the Greens to leave said Alliance was made by the entire membership, not the Green Parliamentary caucus, as I recall?)…

He certainly wouldn't be bringing a particularly strong hand to the table either.

The table that Peter Dunne would bring a strong hand to hasn't been invented yet. Try Ikea.

I suppose I'll be accused of seeing a conspiracy

Where did you get that crazy idea from, Tom? :)

If you didn’t know better you’d think this was all about him retaining his electorate seat….

Don't know what you mean, LegBreak. My contacts in the electorate formerly known as Ohariu-Belmont, sure aren't telling me anything's changed.

So what’s he done throwing his hat in with the Nats?

Clutch your…

Oh man, I wish they had. Not succeeded of course but LORDY that…

McCain said the c word on live US TV.

Priceless. Perfect Freudian slip, the Credit C*&@.

Surely UF’s main selling point was as a “flexible” party. One that would appeal to voters who didn’t particularly mind which of the main parties governed, but didn’t want to see Greens or…

Craig, I think you would find if you asked Jim Anderton that he did not leave the party, it left him, twice

And Peter Dunne has announced a post-election preference, and until then will be honouring his agreement with Helen Clark to the letter. Jim should just get the fuck…

Oh wait, haha, my mistake. It was in fact a profile of Peter Davis, the Prime Minister's husband. Perfectly acceptable questions, then, eh?

Well, as I said on Kiwiblog both stories were tacky as the carpet in a sex-on-site club after a heavy night but it's hard to feel any…

Talk about a waste of space, interesting that suicide is now a bigger killer than road deaths but know one must mention that word !

The good news…

But it all sounds hoaxy.

Sounds? It IS a hoax and has already been treated as such by the US media, who have kindly not made a big issue of it because the woman is clearly mad. Possibly pushed to the brink by the thought of McCain losing.
__"If only I…

You may have other favourites you'd like to share.

OK. How about Carolyne Meng-Yee's bizarre Herald on Sunday profile of John Key's missus, Bronagh, which included these gems:

I ask if they shower together, to conserve water. "No! No, no – we don't use much water at all."

and, unbelievably:…

As Jim Anderton wryly mentioned last night in the minor party leaders' debate – Labour won more votes than National in 1978 and 1981 but the media didn't clamour for Labour to become government then.

There was a lot of clamouring, and it even led to political change, MMP stood…

I don't know where to start with that . . .

How about here: an 'O' for 'Obama' is the same backwards as forwards. Honestly, the quality of whackjobs these days...

The Herald made the point that the biggest party not getting into the government would cause discontent.

To be fair, tha discontent is also a pretty big reason why we got MMP. Disgust that one party could get more votes than the other and not govern was a major force…

As Jim Anderton wryly mentioned last night in the minor party leaders' debate – Labour won more votes than National in 1978 and 1981 but the media didn't clamour for Labour to become government then.

One might equally wryly note that Jim Anderton should STFU about waka-jumpers. He's really got…

TNS showed significant bias towards Labour before the last election as well – and then turned out to be the closest predictor of the actual election results. It could be different this time around but TNS might have more…

"Self-fulfilling". What's the point there, Russell? That we shouldn't hear bad economic news, only the good? There's a lot to talk about in the economy, but I'm struggling to imagine an interesting conversation coming out of that angle.

It's certainly an issue for a range of businesses if people who…

The Herald made the point that the biggest party not getting into the government would cause discontent. I'm sure it would with the voters for that party but it remains to be seen if the population as a whole would be particularly bitter.

Probably not, but as I've said on…

And re the Standard – there is some good investigative journalism going on there currently…

Once in a while The Standard can have some genuinely informative postings.

Let's not forget to pause to note their overtaking of public address in the NZ blog rankings :-)

I can see some point to if…

So, what do the statistics tell us about the final outcome? No bloody clue. Ask me again November 9th, when I've finished the new and improved model (also known as watching the count on election…

I noted the use of the Loess factor which is all very fine from a statistical POV.

What I really want to know is what we are going the…

Once in a while The Standard can have some genuinely informative postings.

I try and encourage them when they do. Although it should be noted that Lynn Prentice, the author of two of those posts, is not prone to hysteria.