Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Metiria's Problem

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  • linger, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    It also seems perverse to think of punishing the Greens for something Winston First may do.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1942 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell,

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 499 posts Report Reply

  • linger,

    Meanwhile, what I would take from the poll result is that the Greens have wasted much of the media recognition they had built up. Metiria was a recognizable public face for the party. The other one (James Shaw?) is not yet as instantly recognizable a media presence. Even if the Greens cannot officially choose a new co-leader yet, they desperately need to have at least one more regular, recognizable, competent spokesperson to fill the media void (and Chloe would seem the most likely choice for that role).

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1942 posts Report Reply

  • warren mac, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Not to mention that if the Greens do get 5%, and Labour are in a position to form a government with NZF, then I can fully see them being dumped at the instigation of Peters and then pliantly giving that government a free ride on confidence and supply.

    I think that's entirely possible. Even the Greens abstaining would get Labour/NZ First across the line. I doubt the Greens would vote against a change of government even though it would be painful to them to sit on the sidelines again.

    New Zealand • Since Sep 2014 • 9 posts Report Reply

  • mark taslov, in reply to linger,

    I had words to that effect last night with an offsider, though I’m yet to be convinced that Chlöe has the reach that they need right now.

    Whether in opposition or otherwise the coherent ethics that The Greens have brought to Parliament would be a huge loss for our country, another notch in neoliberalism’s belt.

    Running partners are du jour, the Greens co-leader thing helped promote this in NZ.

    .

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • linger,

    being dumped at the instigation of Peters and then pliantly giving that government a free ride on confidence and supply

    Yes, it's possible; after all, it's happened before.
    But, what else would you have the Greens do?

    Peters doesn’t actually have to choose sides at all, of course. in some ways, sitting outside as an independently vocal opposition to a minority government, without any of the concomitant responsibilities of government, might be the best outcome for Peters at this stage in his career.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1942 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to linger,

    Where do all those NZF supporters go once Winston Peters is eventually gone, anyway? Could the party even survive without him?

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1141 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen,

    And this is why polls should be banned.

    They are increasingly wrong, both inaccurate, that is they fail to predict the actual result, and imprecise, that is they are so variable that anyone with any statistical experience dismisses them as nonsense.

    But they influence voters. So something utterly wrong changes people's votes and that should be banned.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4460 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to izogi,

    The second question is much easier: NZF will vanish without Winston, as nobody else on their list has much media exposure or experience in office or even basic competence.
    Don't know where NZF supporters would turn next (though I would guess probably slightly more to National than to the Left).

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1942 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to warren mac,

    Even the Greens abstaining would get Labour/NZ First across the line. I doubt the Greens would vote against a change of government even though it would be painful to them to sit on the sidelines again.

    And so what? Let's write the reality check, Winston can stomp his little cloven hoof all he likes, but he's not the only game in town. I know there probably isn't enough political spine going spare these days, but Ardern and English could co-ordinate clear signals that if Winston wants to pout his way into a constitutional crisis that's his call. But he doesn't get to unilaterally dictate the shape of New Zealand's government from the back seat.

    If he doesn't take the hint, I'm sure voters would richly reward him for triggering a fresh election, or landing us with a minority government nobody's shown much stomach for before.

    Again, I know the punditocracy has gone all in on the "Winston King/Queenmaker" storyline. Doesn't mean anyone else has to play along.
    .

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • mark taslov, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    that time the environment was crashing and burning while you were dancing on the grave of the green party

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • linger,

    In a truly bizarre overreaction, I/S argues that the Greens should be aggressively pursuing electorate as well as party votes. That would only make any sense if there were at least one electorate that the Greens could hope to gain a plurality in; and it would only make sense within some such electorate(s). Otherwise it's a waste of their resources: if they can't win one electorate as a backup plan, then they absolutely need all the party vote share they can get.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1942 posts Report Reply

  • warren mac, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Realpoltik. I'm not a NZ First fan by any stretch In fairness Last time Winston was in (or outside) of Government, he largely behaved himself before shooting himself in the foot. He likes the baubles too much. Plus there was that shafting National gave them in 08, and i'm not sure he wants to prop up a final term government again.

    New Zealand • Since Sep 2014 • 9 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to mark taslov,

    Exactly. Whatever side of the house the Greens end up sitting on, our Parliament would be a much poorer place without those voices being heard at all. We need them to be there, and that may well mean voting for them.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1942 posts Report Reply

  • mark taslov, in reply to linger,

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    I do not want either the "let-us-keep-doing-what-we're-doing-and-if-it's-not-working-for-you-well-it-sucks-to-be-you" party or the "you'll-have-to-ask-Winston" party in government.
    The Greens' core policies are the only sane ones for the future.
    The Greens also have the most impressive top 10 list candidates of any party.
    It's kind of an easy choice.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 325 posts Report Reply

  • andin, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    +1

    raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1891 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to warren mac,

    Realpoltik.

    Ah, the fancy way of saying "there is no alternative" when you want to dodge responsibility for the alternative you've already chosen. YMMV, but I think we've got five weeks to not let Ardern and English slide on that one.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • simon g, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    And this is why polls should be banned.

    They are increasingly wrong, both inaccurate, that is they fail to predict the actual result, and imprecise, that is they are so variable that anyone with any statistical experience dismisses them as nonsense.

    I can't agree with banning, though I wouldn't mind compulsory courses in Stats 101 for all politics journos. Right on cue, here's breaking news: the Greens' support has doubled!!!111!! In just 24 hours!

    Obviously it hasn't. But Roy Morgan now has them at 9%. Except, it's late on a Friday night, and not on telly. So it doesn't count.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1330 posts Report Reply

  • Zach Bagnall,

    Is it true pollsters are still using land lines only? I haven't had a one for over 10 years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if land line users were now a minority of voters with a heavy demographic skew.

    Colorado • Since Nov 2006 • 121 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Zach Bagnall,

    If you are correct then the actual election result will be significantly different than the polls before it. Let's see.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to Zach Bagnall,

    This poll which claims to include both landline and mobile has the Greens at 9% which is a whole lot different than 4%.

    http://www.interest.co.nz/news/89405/jacinda-ardern%E2%80%99s-ascension-leadership-revitalises-labour-2-325-turei-scandal-costs-greens

    That said I dislike news reporting of polls - herd mentality and all that.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    This poll which claims to include both landline and mobile has the Greens at 9% which is a whole lot different than 4%.

    Where are those headlines proclaiming, "Greens more than double their vote"?

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1438 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    The polling period matters. I'm not sure (I've seen contradictory information) but I think the Roy Morgan poll includes earlier sampling than the Colmar Brunton poll does. Which might mean the trend is down not up. I'm hoping the CB poll is an outlier, but the next polls will be interesting.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 325 posts Report Reply

  • andin, in reply to Alfie,

    Postponed. The pale stale males are still beating up on Metiria, including a very silly column by Garner. What do Tuku Morgans underpants have to do with anything anymore. Christ on a stick, get down from that high horse would ya!

    raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1891 posts Report Reply

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