Hard News: Interesting Britain!
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Russell Brown, in reply to
The world’s looking at it like a drunk having a moment of clarity, not some shining beacon of wisdom and guidance.
You, sir, are on fire.
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Meanwhile, someone's done the vote split for London. Holy heck.
LAB 54.5%
CON 33.2%
LD 8.8%
GRN 1.8%
UKIP 1.3% -
BenWilson, in reply to
That looks like the Tories getting hosed to me
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I truly think the best approach for the UK is to break up into London, Scotland, NI and the rural rump (an independent Brighton would also be good).
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BenWilson, in reply to
What, no Wales?
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I think the Welsh feel they have to be yoked to England so they have something to whine about.
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Theresa May thinks she's Thatcher 2.0, but history might look back at her as Ted Heath 2.0. It may not be long before 1974 makes both of its presences felt again.
United Kingdom general election, February 1974
United Kingdom general election, October 1974 -
Rich Lock, in reply to
I truly think the best approach for the UK is to break up into London, Scotland, NI and the rural rump (an independent Brighton would also be good).
I'm holding out for the Independent People's Republic of Mercia.
I think the Welsh feel they have to be yoked to England so they have something to whine about.
THAT'S RAAACIST.
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Katharine Moody, in reply to
Right now I’m finding this helpful.
That was a good read. No matter what the cause, it is really heartening for me to see the status quo disrupted by a resurgent youth.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
It's a lot more than that.
Yeah, I get that. But it's not (until now) been something that forms an obvious and visible part of people's everyday experience, in a manner that would make them go 'why, yes, I have had many small yet positive interactions and experiences that make me think fondly of this institution, and as such, now that you have specifically asked me the question, I believe it's worth keeping'. Unlike, say, the NHS.
Which is why it was such a fucking stupid idea to hold the referendum in the first place.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
weaponised identity politics.
Just no.
I was going to expand on this last night, but it was late, and I really don't have the time or energy now.
However, watching the intial results come in last Thursday night before I went to bed, it was noteworthy how the first three seats to declare were all won by Labour women. And the small amount of research I did do last night suggests that at least one of them got there because she benefitted from an all-women short-list. So.....
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The Lib Dems did not go in with a straight reject the referendum and remain position, but like most elections, ended up seeming like that was what they were doing for various reasons that relate to it being a snap election, unclear messaging, media inattention and all the usuals.
Going back to Vauxhall constituency - we did run a strong Remain/anti Brexit message there against Labour's hard brexit/ukip friendly Hoey and it was working well enough right up until Labour gained momentum. We ran this locally as Hoey was one of the very few extremely Leave Labour MPs. The vast majority being for Remain (her colleagues in Lambeth being ultra Remain then and now). We know this because we knocked on thousands of doors and this came up again and again. However by election day these mainly soft/ex Labour voters largely seem to have bought into the Stop the Tories/manifesto and went back, despite personal distaste for Hoey. The youth / 25-40 surge probably would have also done the job for her as well.
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Regarding Labour during the Referendum. Regardless of what Corbyn thought pre Ref and regardless of whether the Labour Party thought it a good idea (who would think they would?), he was useless.
I had a lot to do with Labour In and the amount of stonewalling emanating from Labour HQ was amazing. They could barely run a national campaign and this seems to be down to the leadership of the party. So it came down to local Labour organisations. Some ran great campaigns, some didn't. The latter were the ones who needed a strong national campaign to support them.
I'll also note that most of the prominent left sceptics of the EU came on board with Remain during the campaign as they largely accepted it was the lesser of two evils. There wasn't a prominent left case for leaving articulated to the voters.
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BenWilson, in reply to
why, yes, I have had many small yet positive interactions and experiences
I guess it is rather hard for me to imagine living right on the doorstep of a continent that gave me open access to it with no questions asked to imagine not taking advantage of that. I mean it's roughly as easy for you guys to get to Berlin, Copenhagen, Zürich, Vienna, Rome or Madrid as it is for me to get to Wellington. There's all that stuff right there and it could be on the other side of a controlled border soon, with no clear vision of whether crossing that border will be an easy thing for Brits, particularly if one of the great visions of Brexit is to make crossing it difficult for Europeans. I would expect whatever strictures Britain wishes to enforce will be enforced right back on Brits.
But you'll still have Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland for domestic travel, I suppose.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
I guess it is rather hard for me to imagine living right on the doorstep of a continent that gave me open access to it with no questions asked to imagine not taking advantage of that. I mean it's roughly as easy for you guys to get to Berlin, Copenhagen, Zürich, Vienna, Rome or Madrid as it is for me to get to Wellington.
Well, 48/52. Old people don't tend to take as many easyjet flights for long weekends in foreign parts as young folk do. Plus which, it's harder to link that mentally as a direct benefit of membership, whereas running to casualty in the middle of the night with a small child who is having trouble breathing, and getting prompt and completely free care, is a bit more direct.
However, your point is well taken. I travelled to France in March via the chunnel, and it was an absolute doddle. But getting there on the British side meant travelling down the M20. The same stretch of road that gridlocks absolutely if there's a hint of a hard border.
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To make it clearer - Labour and all competent political parties in the UK try to get as much information about voters and households as possible in their areas (council areas, Westminster, assembly etc). Where possible they knock doors regularly and also call or send surveys out to voters. This means that they will have vast amounts of data about voters in areas they control or are strong in. In the bits of London I'm familiar with, those being strongly Labour inner city boroughs/constituencies, they apparently aim for 3 visits a year to everyone (whether they achieve that is another thing entirely). If it is a target/election maybe more.
During the ref campaign and in the preceding months they were asking, where possible, further questions about the EU. So they often had very useful data about that as well and almost certainly could have used that more effectively to target. This in fact is what they did in Scotland during the IndyRef.
They couldn't share that data with other parties or Stronger In, but they could give general indications as to how things were going and where they were targeting. By this I mean at the local party would probably choose to focus on 1-3 wards during the final weeks and on the day, to get out the vote.
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I can't see ordinary travel being massively affected. I travelled from UK to EU mainland as NZ citizen for a few years and it wasn't particular hard. I've also travelled extensively in EU as a UK citizen and the main problem / delay has always been the London airport queues.
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Neil,
Regarding Labour during the Referendum. Regardless of what Corbyn thought pre Ref and regardless of whether the Labour Party thought it a good idea (who would think they would?), he was useless.
From talking with people who have some experience of Corbyn and that particular part of the Labour Party the Euroscepticism runs deep and goes back a long way.
For many that's what's disturbing about Corbyn. Perhaps his foreign policy views might moderate or be moderated by the PLP if he becomes PM and is as inclusive as he promises. What Macron and Merkel dont need at the moment is another anti-NATO leader as the face Trump and Putin.
But looking at some of his inner circle it's not obvious what a Labour govt's foreign policy would be.
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Ben Austin, in reply to
Oh I think it's without doubt Jeremy was anti EU/EEC and that wasn't an uncommon position for a man of his age and beliefs (my local Labour MP is the same). His brother is also extremely anti and as I had an unsolicited shouting match about the EU with him 22/6/16 I can personally attest that he is a very angry, shouty man.
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It's hard to criticise someone for being on the fence about an issue when you have a shakey leadership of a party which was riven on the issue.
Grudging support seemed a reasonable position. Sure- it would have been much, much better for a strong pro-EU stance, but that would have required a united Labour. Lol.
There could still be a strong pro-EU stance. I'd go out on a limb and say that Macron's popularity has certainly put this back on the agenda as an option, perhaps for a future referendum between some appalling deal and staying in the EU.
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BenWilson, in reply to
perhaps for a future referendum between some appalling deal and staying in the EU.
Ideally it would be between a sensible deal sensibly negotiated, and the status quo. There would be campaign of information about what the deal actually is, and clear pathways for each outcome. My understanding, however, is that the pathway of remaining in the EU now requires the agreement of every member state. That puts those states in a position to make new demands.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
My understanding was that the left of Labour was very anti-EU up until 1988 when Jacques Delors made a convincing case at a TUC annual congress for the EU as a progressive force for workers rights.
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BenWilson, in reply to
Thanks for that. It's really guarded, though. Sensible guy.
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WH,
The NYT has a précis and the video of the introduction to Trump's first full cabinet meeting.
Minority Leader Schumer's response is here.
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Ben Austin, in reply to
If you are referring to Labour, I don't think they were riven on the issue before the Referendum. If Labour had ended up with any of the other 3 candidates that stood with Corbyn in 2015 we would have seen a full throated pro Remain case. The party activists and MPs were decidedly pro Remain, nearly everywhere. They largely still are. Even the younger Corbyn supporters tend to be strongly pro EU (older ones tend to be more mixed, in my experience as they often share his scepticism).
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