Quite. The units we're interested in are people, not areas of people. When you don't actually poll people with the two questions at once, you can't establish what structure exists in the interaction…

I don't believe so. There has been loads of analysis of Labour vote/ Ref vote up to now and it does seem that a strong majority of people who actually vote Labour voted Remain. This is quite different from people who belong to groups/class/areas that usually or used to…

Yeah. Looking at the raw numbers/percentages for some of the first returns, the UKIP votes collapsed completely, so where they'd had, say, 15% of the vote, the Labour share was increasing by 10%, and the tory share…

The areas that voted Leave in numbers were more often than not traditional areas of Labour support.

A large number of traditional Labour voters voted strongly to leave.

Corbyn has done very well not to patronise these voters, while also keeping the activists and others in…

My crude estimate from roughly crunching the numbers on some of the seats was a split of around around 2:1.

Macron has left the door open.

Minority Leader Schumer's response is here.

Ideally it would be between a sensible deal sensibly negotiated, and the status quo. There would be campaign of information about what the deal actually is, and clear pathways for each outcome. My understanding, however, is…

Grudging support seemed a reasonable position. Sure- it would have been much, much better for a strong pro-EU stance, but that would…

From talking with people who have some experience of Corbyn and that particular part of the Labour Party…

I guess it is rather hard for me to imagine living right on the doorstep of a continent that gave me open access to it with no questions asked to imagine not taking advantage of that. I mean…

I had a lot to do with Labour In and the amount of stonewalling emanating from Labour HQ…

Going…

Yeah, I get that. But it's not (until now) been something that forms an obvious and visible part of people's everyday experience, in a manner that would make them go 'why, yes, I have had many small yet positive interactions and experiences that make…

That was a good read. No matter what the cause, it is really heartening for me to see the status quo disrupted by a resurgent youth.

I'm holding out for the Independent People's Republic of Mercia.

I think the Welsh feel they have to be yoked to England…

United Kingdom general election, February 1974
United Kingdom general election, October 1974

LAB 54.5%
CON 33.2%
LD 8.8%
GRN 1.8%
UKIP 1.3%

You, sir, are on fire.

Any delay in the Queen’s speech would be difficult to accommodate, given the monarch is scheduled to attend Royal Ascot from next Tuesday until the end of next week

Obviously, a great advantage of choosing your head of state on the basis of their parent's magical status…

The election was called specifically to mandate it. And no, it's the most crucial issue of the time because it has to be negotiated now, and it affects way, way…

Of course. That happens within Europe. There was an opportunity with a rapidly closing window for the "Left" of an entire continent to work together with British Labour on internal reform. They'll no doubt continue with it…

Who won the election...

it was a right royal fuck off to insufferable middle class liberal wankers and their suffocating, weaponised identity politics as well

...even though millions of middle class liberals vote Labour, and making…

Corbyn was mainly hammered…

He got hammered before and straight after the referendum for not appearing to back remain strongly enough. Assuming that was fair, and not…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXwKU37nsU8

What surprises me the most is Scotland. Obviously not living there is a handicap, but I hadn't realised that the SNP had…

I hope this isn't actually part of your argument, since it's clearly a circular justification.

For example, it actually allows for more radical reform once you have a mandate.

Also without a mandate. Which is…

Deputies have the same powers as the Speaker when presiding. Akin to the Speaker, they do not take part in partisan politics, and remain completely impartial in the House. However, they are entitled to take part in constituency politics, and to make their views known on these matters. In…

The other scenarios after a vote of no confidence (a new government being formed) may be politically difficult, even implausible, but they are there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

Unless there was a second positive vote of confidence, in the same or a different governmental group, a vote of no confidence does trigger an election.

You know,…

You should check the numbers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#Results

She has 317 nominally Tory MPs. The opposition have 314 (that excludes the 7 Sinn Fein MPs who don't take their seats). She also…

Not this one – and not any 'British citizens (but not other British nationals), who had once lived in the United Kingdom, but had since and in the meantime lived outside of the United Kingdom, but for a period…

I didn't mean so much in terms of final representation – more in the benefits of the race turning binary.

I don't think I've ever seen a more disuniting movement. It's literally a movement to break out of a union. They are incompetently pissing away one of the few good things about being in Europe.…

Well Labour got pretty much a proportional result. But the Tories got heaps more, 48.8% of the seats off 42.4% of the popular vote. DUP got 1.5% of seats off…

Thirdly, the idea of a single British people united by the Brexit vote is ludicrous. Not only do Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London have large anti-Brexit majorities, but many of those who did vote for Brexit are deeply unhappy…

How would running limit their losses? If they're down massively in the polls all that can happen is they increase their losses. They'd be ejected from Government and all the pomp and power that goes with it. This is Thanksgiving for Turkeys…

Or the government loses a vote of confidence. There were seven by-elections in the UK in 2016 alone, it is highly unlikely May with her two seat majority would go the distance based on…

Yeah, I can't see that happening either. May may get rolled, but it'll just be the next muppet in line. Britain done fucked itself. Again. In a PR system, a close call like this…

Your occasional [[https://thespinoff.co.nz/featured/13-09-2015/politics-corbyn-blimey-what-does-the-british-labour-election-result-mean/?utm_source=The+Spinoff&utm_medium=CPE&utm_campaign=Corbyn+Blimey+%E2%80%93+Jim+Anderton%2C+Judith+Collins%2C+Bryan+Gould+and+More+on+Jeremy+Corbyn%E2%80%99s+Big+Win#Nash|number one local political mancrush hasn't exactly rushed to volunteer to have Jezza's…

Labour has…

That said, I'm opposed to parts of Corbyn's…

However, I think you're right: the main risk is mutinous tory defectors who are either pro-Europe moderates or who want to check a spanner in the works for thier own ends…

The Last Leg election special was kinda worth while. Not so much funny-haha as funy-omg, but interesting anyway. Watching the boys try not to be too hard on the female, muslim,…

The most hostile Labour MPs got the smallest swing with 4 of them losing their seats.

And if it was just about how badly May had campaigned then the SNP wouldn't have suffered so…

'Non-English' laws in…

... and this site here really does help with that!
It has a neat interface with the whole planet as it is right now!

Menu directed overlays for wind, temperature, chemicals, ocean movements.
Zoom in,…

That is fascinating. I think your assessment of this being extremely unstable is correct, in that case. So in order to get any English laws passed at all, they need to reach out to…

Apparently, the DUP can't vote on English laws (due to the EVEL law passed in 2015). So, the Tory/DUP coalition only have a majority when it comes to non-English laws (Brexit, basically). The DUP promised a soft Brexit in their manifesto…

You missed out the bit where they lost 91 seats at the 2010 election (under Gordon Brown), and a further 26 at the 2015 election (under Ed Miliband), going into the 2017 election with 232 seats.

The…

After 7 uninspiring years in office and two exceptionally significant strategic errors – Cameron's Brexit and May's election strategy – the Tories still have more seats and a larger share of the popular vote than in 2010.

It's easy to see it go all Shipley-Peters.

Ashcroft says that 57% of the 2015 UKIP vote went to the Conservatives; Labour won voters from UKIP, the LDs and the Greens.

Interesting. While I'll take their word for it that political strategists use this analysis, I definitely struggle to see some of their points in the data shown. The battle…

UK Labour was just a few weeks away from an historic pasting. This feels like what happened with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

And if it did, things would be better, IMHO. You were saying that you thought that it would actually be worse that way. You're confusing "unlikely" with "bad".

It's still 'a whole bunch of “maybe this” and “hopefully that” and “if they’re really lucky”'…

A barnstorming analysis by Newsnight's policy editor Chris Cook on how the Conservatives got polling and strategy terribly wrong.

They really thought they were going to hoover up the UKIP vote in Labour-held seats. They bet the farm on it.

See, I don't think that's one of the possibilities. I look at the Scottish Conservatives (who are already talking about a separate identity) , and I look at the…

Yes, relentless. And the Corbyn result proves MSM lost another one – big time.

Yes, obviously the whole world is waiting with bated breath to hear what either of the British main parties think about that. They could be excused for thinking that was perhaps the…

I really don't agree. Winning the election and becoming the actual government for the next 5 years would have been a far, far superior outcome.…

Good on you, man, I guess celebration is all part of preparing for the next phase.

Of course the jubilation is justified, given how things looked 6 weeks ago. It could have been so much worse. With the benefit of distance, I'm a lot less caught up in the headiness of the moment, despite…

I think you have it backwards: winning the election would have been a disaster for Labour, but a close second…

The sight of the legs of the political establishment (both left- and right-wings) getting kicked out from under them, and them…

I get that people want to celebrate the ideological victory, the reclaiming of the Labour Party etc, but the rather harsh fact is that Labour did not win the election and the Conservatives are the governing…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblfKREj50o

Eh, still high from last night. Normal service will be resumed soon.

That being said, this last week whilst canvassing in Lambeth it really did feel like the Conservatives had screwed it up. Met a few elderly ex Labour voters who had swung Conservative then…

Where, and what for?

The British army is far too weak to take any sort of unilateral action without being part of an alliance, which effectively…

Wrong part of…

Well, I'd say that other world leaders are starting to see them as laughing stocks. But it only takes one outbreak of hostilities for all of the humor to vanish. May has openly stated an intention to dispense…

I’d say it is exactly that. He is being a traditional politician. He’s put out a cracking manifesto and held rallies and answered the questions he’s been asked. He’s thrown out lollies to key demographics. He’s built a good organisation and keen followers.…

"The Democratic Unionists will only support a Conservative government if Northern Ireland is not granted any unique special status that would keep the region halfway inside the EU, the party’s leader at Westminster has confirmed.

Nigel Dodds, who was re-elected…

6) The Green party

They have taken a hit in vote share. Numbers in the north-east are down to the hundreds. This is because they took a moral decision to stand aside…

At first I read your concluding sentence and thought, yes, scary, isn’t it – and then I thought, hang on, do I (and others) now see these two countries as such? Hmm.

I am drawing far more delight than I really should from people dredging up confident predictions from pundits a few months ago. The mouth-feel of this…

Hard not to see this as another twitch in the death throes of the MSM, as well. The papers have been relentlessly against Corbyn for months, The Guardian and the BBC have not exaclty been fair and impartial either. However, my online feeds have…

And I still can't believe they let Zac Goldsmith back in. Only just, but still...

I guess Ruth…

The whole thing is some kind of sick joke. It's enough to make…

Oh I wish.

I'd settle for even just some of them. Pour encourager les autres, as they say.

Still, a good result for Labour, sad in a way to see Scotland swing back to a more balanced pattern, but jeez, can they get…

Impressive approach from Jacinda Ardern – she's got politics in…

And that is a very sad and telling present reality – something the ptb (whomever they are at the highest echelons of power) need to think very hard about.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/09/davos-wakes-up-to-the-trump-new-world-order.html

Every single expat was barred from voting in the EU referendum. You know, the one's with the most to lose.....

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

(pauses to draw breath before suffocating)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

(Rinse, repeat. All day)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfJRX-8SXOs

Hey my bad – Metiria Turei gives it a go and, unlike some of the heavyweight-ranked punditry, at least avoids setting herself up for posterity to make a prize goose of.

I get a member of my family to proxy vote for…

Her and her ilk are so yesterday that even the rats are turning up their noses at the stink.

I presume DUP is a shoo in for their support?

NZ, I don't know, but I'd have thought the British would. You're in Colorado? There's a British Consulate in Denver according to Google.

May and her posh strategists committed the great toff mistake – they assumed the proles were an unvariegated mass of easily led inferiors. They thought the UKIP support in the precariat/working class was inherently…

– The Tories' 43% share of the vote is only just shy of the 44% that secured landslide victories for Blair and Thatcher.

– The 40% won by Labour is more than Blair achieved in one victory.

The key is the ravaging of the…

They seem to have screwed up postal voting for this snap election. I received my voting papers TODAY, having confirmed overseas postal registration over a month ago. Neither I nor my wife were able to vote…

BORIS JOHNSON!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

So Labour can watch the Conservatives twist in the wind under that moron, wrestling with Brexit and the NHS, until the…

Not that we can actually know, but Jeez it would be nice if the speculation about it could just end. It's like Labour here having a Clarkite faction.

It is nice for the Corbyn faithful…

There is a (smallish) sectarian majority in Scotland who believe that independence will lead to their being forced to…

Couldn't agree more. I suspect that is a major part in the drop in support for the SNP. After overcoming a rather staid early years (Scottish Tories as my old girlfriend from Fife called them…

Perhaps that's intrinsic to making a radical change – he isn't playing by the *rules*.

I'd suggest that any of the Blairite candidates would have done considerably less well yesterday.

The main thing if issues with is Corbyn's support for Brexit…

Corbyn's run an excellent campaign and May a historically awful one. He appears to have motivated people to vote – and his extremely beige position on Brexit was clearly the right one electorally, given…

I think we are seeing something of a political realignment, where the more affluent middle classes support a left-liberal party while the proletariat is increasingly drawn to populism. Of course, the actual personnel of the right-populist parties are incongruously posh.

I guess it would come down to whether they were competent in what they did. It's not really that hard of an ask. They could…

The last dalliance the LibDems had with the…

The UK result says yes.

The idea that the Tories could have a minority…

The Leave camp, anyway. It seems that, like the Trump presidency, there was never a contingency plan in place for if they won.

[After the referendum, the stock market rose. That's kind of a reverse effect (same with Trump) – when there are real-world economic negatives, then the central banks will generally cut rates. That reduces the benchmark for…

Meanwhile, UKIP's leader. LOLOLOL.