Hard News: Another Big Day
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If Hilary wins the nomination and takes on McCain (the Republican candidate who is -- by miles -- least offensive to me) there is decent polling evidence that she will be undone by her negatives; that she can't win.
I'm not so sure on that. She can win against McCain -- by getting into a very nasty. downlow marriage of convenience with the worse of the rabid right (seriously, they hate McCain more than her on the theory that a heretic trumps and infidel) and the loony left.
I wonder if this time next year we're going to be looking back on two spectacularly ugly election capaigns, or occasions when people really touched the better angels of their natures.
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Regrettably, McCain's hardly a lock with Romney (believe me, I'm no fan) surging in California. The current US narrative goes that the Democratic race may still be undecided after Super Tuesday and the Republican race settled. But it's looking more and more likely the Rupublicians won't have anyone head and shoulders above anyone else either, and certainly the conference will only confirm McCain if he's a very clear winner (see Craig's comment).
Definately the most fascinating US race in yonks.
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The US electoral system surely is curious. We have this strange process whereby candidates for the same party spend months lacerating each other in public, then get all cosy again once the front-runner is chosen. I agree that Obama is the most thrilling prospect, and the person most likely to win some respect back for the USA in the international arena (even though there is a curious echo of events in the first two series of 24?).
Judy Lessing is doing a talk on the US elections, in Hamilton next week as a fund-raiser for Labour. I will report back if she says anything interesting.,
Thanks for the kiwiboomers link--you will find that Roger Horrocks has added an interesting footnote to my piece.
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Thanks for the kiwiboomers link--you will find that Roger Horrocks has added an interesting footnote to my piece.
That Horrocks is a groover, isn't he?
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Hilary could take out McCain; in an odd way she's a better candidate than she looks! and I think the long campaign might reveal that. But despite having no McCredibility, gotta agree that Obama can be seriously inspiring- and that the US- and the world- could do with a ig shot of that.
Eg, check out this video. -
We were joking the other day about how, given Obama's cadence and style, there would be a generic-house/Public Enemy-style track sampling him at some point (ala MLK). And there it is, right on his site!
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Snap Rob!
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Which seems to have made it to the frontpage of obama.com. California here we come. It's truely a great competition.
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Snapped...;)
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And I now see is referenced on Ms Gracewoods blog today, and the speech referred to in Mr Slacks.
Always a step behind, aren't I?!
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And I now see is referenced on Ms Gracewoods blog today, and the speech referred to in Mr Slacks.
Always a step behind, aren't I?!As I noted in reply to Jolisa's post, it says something about the viral impact of the video itself.
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Thanks for the kiwiboomers link--you will find that Roger Horrocks has added an interesting footnote to my piece.
That Horrocks is a groover, isn't he?
There's been several years when I've spotted Roger in the crowd at the BDO. It's always put a smile on my face, and made me swear to myself that I'll be there too when I'm his age.
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As I noted in reply to Jolisa's post, it says something about the viral impact of the video itself.
Very true - although I hadn't noticed it before the PA mafia referenced it, it feels like something we'll be seeing a lot of.
Points if they get it played on MTVAnd Super Tuesday will be interesting yet confusing - the various methodologies used in delegate counting (winner-takes-all, split delegates etc) combined with a seemingly tight Democratic race makes me think I'll be none the wiser come Average Wednesday
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If Hilary wins the nomination and takes on McCain (the Republican candidate who is -- by miles -- least offensive to me) there is decent polling evidence that she will be undone by her negatives; that she can't win
What is that polling? The match-ups I've seen generally show McCain beating both Obama and Clinton (they both beat Romney).
There's a slightly smaller margin with Obama but nothing conclusive.
If the argument is about which Dem candidate will take votes away from the Republicans then that will mean taking them away from McCain - arguments could be made for either Obama or Clinton but I can't see anything convincing either way.
Obama supporters like to play on the old Republican talking points of HRC being calculating and divisive but that's just campaign rhetoric - that's not necessarliy how voters will see things and it's certainly not what almost 50% of Democrat voters think.
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Neil: This shows that, over a series of polls, it's probably too close to call either way.
That Obama video has been everywhere I've gone this morning (without, y'know, leaving my chair). About a third of the way through I did start to get an itching for concrete environmental policy, but then there was this woman Signing...
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Obama endorsed by Scarlett Johansson - he's got my vote...
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There's been a bit of talk McCain will pick Huckabee as his running mate.
Apparently Huckabee has been lobbying hard for this.
Electorally it makes sense: the South will, as is usual these days, be crucial (perhaps even more so if the Dems nominate Obama) and more importantly it would keep the Levitican wing of the Republican Party from staying home on election day.
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The trillions of dollars and thousands of lives uselessly wasted in Iraq have been put on the back burner conveniently whilst Americans frantically check their wallet, their dodgy mortgage and their job prior to voting. Hillary's husband hasn't done her any favours lately, and that will gravitate more towards the inspiration thing with Obama.
Indeed he is the most exciting and charismatic politician to come into the fore in the US since Kennedy, and many are making that comparison. Nonetheless, he is a politician, and with no small machine behind him to get their guy in there. The hostility is there between the two (not unfamiliar territory for a Clinton), make no mistake, which is a shame as it would be a winning ticket for sure if they ran as a team. Most bridges are burned too deeply by the time the convention comes around for real healing.
Gore or Kucinich were the only real change agents, and they are two entirely different cases. It may unfortunately be business as usual, even with the Democrats having this race won all bar the shouting. They gave it away in 04, and can do it again, though unlikely.
California is a largely Dem state, and who they choose to run will be a very good indicator. Great stuff
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There's been a bit of talk McCain will pick Huckabee as his running mate.
You're right about that. It seems like Huckabee is hanging in there until Super Tuesday so he can siphon conservative votes away from Romney in the South, hand McCain the nomination and then jump on the ticket. And that would make the general pretty interesting.
Authentic maverick leader with cross over appeal and conservative southern governor would untie the Republicans and make life very hard for the Democrats. I bet Hillary and Obama are praying for a Romney upset.
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And just to be the anti-curmudgeon, I'll always HEART Waitangi Day as long as Shane Jones keeps on marking the occasion with sanctimonious, irony-deficient brown-neckery.
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California is a largely Dem state, and who they choose to run will be a very good indicator. Great stuff.
Hell yeah. It looks like it's all happening there:
In the Democratic race, Senator Obama of Illinois has moved into a statistical tie with Senator Clinton of New York; she had a double-digit lead just a few weeks ago.
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That's big. If he took California, which really is a 'neutral' state for the two of them, which she was considered to have already won... it's a massive game on. Just a couple of electoral college votes in CA.
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Neil Morrison,
The polls may show Obama and Clinton performing about the same against McCain, but the thing is - at least as I see it - Hillary is probably polling as high as she ever will. Obama on the other hand, given his oratory and the like, might well be able to change things significantly on the campaign trail.
Over at the Nation, Christopher Hayes does a nice job of making the case for Obama.
Rob Hosking,
He can't count, he don't do science. The only thing scarier than the Huck for VP is Huckabee as president...
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...it's probably too close to call either way.
which is why I'm a bit skeptical of any claim by the Obama and Clinton camps of having any greater avantage over McCain (apart from being Dems of course) than the other.
There's now talk of this having to be decided at he convention where the right of such states as Florida to have their delegates counted will then have to be litigated. The lawyers will be pleased.
Obama on the other hand, given his oratory and the like, might well be able to change things significantly on the campaign trail.
he might or he might not but Obama supporters like to believe that this is certain. It's actually impossible to tell how the advantages and disadvanatges of both Obama and Clinton would play out during a campaign against McCain.
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Neil,
True - hard to say for certain. Who knows, maybe Obama has some great big skeleton in his closet. And Clinton, whatever else you might say about her, has probably had everything remotely resembling a bone plucked from hers long before now.
On the other hand, while Obama maybe a greater risk, can you really watch those speeches and tell me that he has no more potential than Clinton to inspire the average American voter?
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