DC doesn't vote until Tuesday. At a primary, not a caucus.

Maybe Washington State?

Duh. That's me cutting and pasting links with my eyes closed.

Washington State, yes.

But I think the Dems will have to consider the will of a large number of voters in a state that has played a pivotal role in the past (remember 2000).

Why? Sorry if this sounds harsh, but unless the DNC clearly and egregiously over-reached (and without getting into the…

Just when everyone thought the Republicans were sweet...

Well, then you hear the observation – McCain is far enough ahead that if he loses every remaining vote with Huckabee on 50% and himself on 40%, McCain will still have the delegates to secure the nomination.

three out of four people…

TPM says they're refusing to release the last quarter of the votes, which suggests it gets worse.

DC is never going to be a target for the GOP,…

So a group of veterans have started swiftboating McCain's Vietnam experience. That sure didn't take long.

Registered on YouTube three weeks ago. Looks like either Democrats or the Ron Paul cult. The comments would suggest the latter.

But there's a significant difference from the Swiftboat escapades. The latter were claiming…

And I also think it's just a wee bit naive to assume that if McCain secures the nomination, let alone wins the election, he's getting any kind of free ride.

He's more likely to catch shit from his own party!

I don't recall anyone signing up to a pledge to stop campaigning.

In fact they did and they mostly kept to that pledge. But then they are both lawyers – whose envelope pushing abilities put a lot of posties to shame.

I've got no idea how this issue will play…

Craig, you're assuming an equivalence in 'on-messageness' and power which simply doesn't exist in the USA.

I'm assuming that the left-wing of a turkey is much of a muchness as the right one. And I also think it's just a wee bit naive to assume that if McCain secures the…

While a McCain Administration would be showered with rose petals on a daily basis by a Democrat-controlled Congress? The usual suspects among the left-wingnutterati and on talk radio would suddenly decide he's not such a bad chap after all?

Craig, you're assuming an equivalence in 'on-messageness' and power which simply…

A Republican President would wield signifiance influence on the national agenda and retain the ability to veto and discredit Democratic legislative initiatives.

So, instead you want a single party with a lock on the executive and legislative branches of the federal government. Remind me how well those checks and balances…

So Obama not quite the Saint, he didn't follow the rules – or at least he didn't follow the spirit of the rules.

Um... I don't recall anyone signing up to a pledge to stop campaigning. (Otherwise, I guess both Obama and Clinton "didn't follow the spirit" of the decision…

As GWB showed, the President is merely a figurehead, a symbol, around which the Executive branch is organised.

If you´ll excuse my exaggeration.

And then

The very real threat of the Democratic nominee losing to McCain is IMO more important that the differences between Obama and Clinton.

As a couple of others have alluded to, the US legislative system incorporates a number of checks and balances. Legislation has to passed by both the…

But its not internal democrat feuding, its the rules that they all agreed upon that were clearly based upon their party constitution.

I was thinking more of the spat between the DNC and the Florida Dem Party which left the delegates not counted. It's one of those chance events that…

There was a rule that said anyone who campaigns in Florida gets no delegates at all at the convention. Obama, who wants some delegates, followed this ruling, didn't campaign,

err, he did camaign, he ran TV adds (they were national which included Florida). Hillary didn't, although she did show at…

I know it's just rhetoric, yada yada, and everyone is used to the fact the Repub's regularly accuse Democrats, academics, journalists and so forth of treason, even they they don't really mean it, much.…

You couldn't vote for him cause the terrorists would win. He was a defeatist Cutter and Runner who made America look like a weak horse in Lebanon.

He raised taxes, not knowin' that…

Re someone's (Craig?) comment about bringing back the party of Regean or Goldwater, screw that, lets bring back Rockefeller Republicans.

If the results of the nomination were to rest on whether or not those votes should counted it would be hard to argue that they shouldn't.

I'd have thought it very easy. There was a rule that said anyone who campaigns in Florida gets no delegates at all at the…

But if Obama had one these don't you think he'd be rather keen to have those delegates counted?

We don't know, but in all probability yes. We do know that all the candidates agreed before the vote that the delegates should not be seated.

I've read speculation that Howard Dean…

But if Obama had one these don't you think he'd be rather keen to have those…

And then?

A really big party.

For instance, how was it decided that Obama was to speak for Kerrry’s campaign?

If you mean at the 2004 convention – everyone at the convention would have been speaking for the campaign – or for the party, which had pretty much become the…

Paul Krugman wrote a series of editorials a few months back about how Obama was adopting criticisms of the health care plans right out of the Republican play book, as if there was some merit to these criticisms, and as if they needed to be met…

However, like a couple of posters here, he does leave me a bit cold – the charisma thing slightly misses me.

Well, I always found the charms of JFK, Princess Di and Winston Peters rather opaque. So I don't think its 'charisma' I respond to in Obama. "Behaves like a…

Having just watched it – and being impressed with the methodology of his comparison – it made me think how useful it could be to see a similar effort made to compare Key and Clark in the…

I think it's unfair to say that Obama has done diddlisquat though.

The media hasn't talked about what he's been doing in Washington and so the Narrative is that "he's new, therefore inexperienced, therefore…

In fact, it puzzles me how Obama has had such a relatively quick rise within the Democrat party, without having achieved anything much of note as a senator.

I hate this explanation, because it comes close to saying 'magic' or something similarly elusive, but here goes: there is such a…

(I think Ann Coulter said she would vote for Satan before McCain.)

Satan, meanwhile was unavailable for comment, as, despite the heavy snow, he's been busy door-knocking for John 'Anti-Christ McCain in the Ninth Circle.

It is easy to lose sight of the eventual goal, which is the comprehensive defeat of the Republican candidates for Congress, the Senate, and the Presidency.

That really better not be 'the eventual goal'. A step on the way, sure, but breaking stuff cannot be all the Dems have to…

I don`t really mind which of the frontrunners takes the nomination, I just want to see the Republicans thrown out of the White House.

And then?

If you want to get right down to it, if Florida and Michigan Democrats are feeling "disenfranchised" they have nobody to blame except their own state party leadership for playing chicken with a T-Rex over the timing of their primaries.

Well, Florida Democrats at least could partly blame the Republican-controlled…

If you want to get right down to it, if Florida and Michigan Democrats are feeling "disenfranchised" they have nobody to blame except their own state party leadership for playing chicken with a T-Rex over the timing of their primaries.

And the same thing happened to the Michigan GOP…

In fact, it puzzles me how Obama has had such a relatively quick rise within the Democrat party, without having achieved anything much of note as a senator. Maybe someone can enlighten me on this?

Well, the first I saw of him was [[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNCLomrqIN8|the keynote speaking slot he had at…

"Help! HIllary's not winning! Change the rules!"

Yeah well, it's not unheard of in American politics. 2000 even.

Craig R and I were coming back from the radio recording today talking about what would happen if the Dems got to convention with Obama winning the popular vote but Hillary taking it with the super-delegates.

"Florida," said Craig.

And to be fair, if the reverse happened, I could easily…

Nice turn of phrase, Craig, but hardly what is happening between the two leading Dems right now.

Fair ping where Clinton personally is concerned. But I do stand by my assertion that it beggars credibility that some of the nasty and dishonest stuff coming from proxies like Shaheen and former-President…

There's been talk if it's close of legal disputes trying to bring them back in. Anyone know anything?

That would be a disaster.

"Help! HIllary's not winning! Change the rules!"

Following media reports of Hillary donating $5million to her campaign, the Obama website has had a mini-fundraising campaign to match it.

Since polls closed on SuperDuper Tuesday they've raised $5,542,072 (as of this second) and it's still rising.

(Note: $ graphic seems to be…

There's been talk if it's close of legal disputes trying…

"Florida," said Craig.

Well, the shit's hitting the fan:

It's happening. Obama has…

But it's the numbers of donors that's even more striking. Hillary has tended…

http://www.cbo.gov/budget/data/historical.pdf

The…

I suspect the vast majority of Dems wont be so short sighted as to change their party vote just because their candidate didn't get selected.

You're right (mostly) I think, although many Americans who self-identify as Progressives will be holding their noses and voting for Hillary if she…

You wrote:

Which is pretty much what I meant. You can 'set agendas' all you like, but if you can't get a bill passed? That's why you guys invented the phrase 'lame duck president', right?

No matter what happens in the Presidential in Nov, the Dems will still…

Oh FFS. Yes, it's the *Clintons* that are the most corrupt people in Washington right now. Clearly.

Teehee. Sometimes I wonder if there are people who believe it wasn't Dick Cheney who shot that guy in the face, but Hillary Clinton. On the grassy noll...

Of course they still have…

By taking out the Clintons, he will have done more to clean up Washington than anyone or anything else.

Oh FFS. Yes, it's the *Clintons* that are the most corrupt people in Washington right now. Clearly.

You wrote " ... presidents don't make policy'. I think I am reading your post correctly.

Presidents most assuredly do make policy. In fact depending on factors like their popularity and which year of their term it is etc. they set the policy agenda, in fact all agendas, in…

http://thepage.time.com/2008/02/06/page-exclusive-some-clinton-senior-staff-working-without-pay/

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Clinton_loaned_her_campaign_5_million.html

Five reasons Hillary should be worried, according to Politico. Hard to argue with them.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8363.html

Obama really may win the Dem…

The Dems' problem is that the respective camp's supporters will tear each other apart by convention time

There's some evidence that broadly speaking supporters in both camps aren't nearly as hostile towards each other's candidate as a lot of internet discussion would suggest. I can't find the polls at the…

I feel as though I'm being manipulated into disliking her, and I don't like that feeling

Ditto, Danielle. I have a broad streak of Oppositional Defiance Disorder, otherwise known as 'Oh yeah? screw you'. I'll give Craig props for actually being able to produce reasons for not liking her.

I've…

a) Both of them are too far to the right for my liking,…

And I'm really beginning to get rather depressed where fundamental civility, and a rhetoric pitched slightly above 'my opponent is a baby-eating pig-fucker', is greeted with a cynical eye roll.

Nice turn of phrase, Craig, but hardly what is happening between the two leading Dems right now.

You must be…

There are lots of blog comments threads like this one out there today.

McCain is a large dead rat for the conservative establishment to swallow, but it appears that there are quite a…

but maybe there's a little less in Obama's Greater Uniter line. He's not exactly uniting Dem voters.

And absolutely nothing in the Inevitability of Hillary line the media were pushing for over a year. I don't actually see how it does the Democrats any harm that their presidential nominee is…

Well actually there is – assuming that you accept Zogby's polling results as representative of America as a whole...

ah yes the Zogby polling. Always seems to be it bit pro-Obama and a bit wrong.

If Obama is running on the line "vote for me because the Republicans hate Hillary"…

Here's my concern: apart from Scarlett, we've got the actress who plays Addison Montgomery, Nicole from the Pussycat Dolls, John Legend, and Will.I.Am? Poor showing, celebrities! (On the other hand, it's nice to see Aisha Tyler again.)

Heh, thanks for that Danielle. Apart from Scarlett I was wondering who the…

Bush's budget is pitiful; it represents a truly massive increase in Govt expenditure over the time he has been in office.

The utter fecklessness of the Bush fiscal "policy", on both the spending and revenue sides, can hardly be over-emphasised; but remember, this was supposed to be its genius --…

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080206/NATION/476091143/1001

Here is an article that outlines the polling on Johnny Mac v Hill. It is from the Washington Times, but it is consistent with everything I have read and heard from numerous sources on the subject.

Obama would have a much better shot…

The longer the Dem…

So it turns out Russell's correct about Iti, but missed the bit where TVNZ is underwriting his photo op with Key.

Um, and I'm sure Clark was very pleased with the heavy rotation Three gave her oh so carefully contrived outrage. (Because we all know TV3 would never, ever do…

Wow. The breadth of insult in that statement just takes my breath away.

To Margaret Thatcher, certainly. Before anyone has a stroke, I'd recommend finding John Campbell's excellent (and even-handed) biography, and learn what its facing real institutional sexism in politics every step of the bloody way. Hillary Clinton doesn't…

The Wall Street Journal political market, run in partnership with Intrade.com, shows the Democratic nomination race in a dead heat: Hillary Clinton is rated a 50% chance of eventually securing the nomination, to Obama's 49%. Notably, the chances of an Obama victory have risen from 40%…

"Why do you have such a big problem with Clinton, when she's just like Margaret Thatcher"

Wow. The breadth of insult in that statement just takes my breath away.

Hell, I wasn't a supporter of MMP, but the triennial howlings from the usual suspects about how it's too complicated for…

Though, give me the orange felt pens of Aotearoa any day!

Didn't you get the memo, Robyn, we're all too thick to get 'one cross in column A (which indicates the local candidate you prefer) and/or one cross in column B' (which indicates the party you prefer). You don't have…

It doesn't stir any emotions in my heart. I don't get moved by the history. It's just another day off in summer, which I do like.

But it really doesn't register for me in the way that say, ANZAC Day does.

I followed the instructions at the top – select ONE candidate, pull little lever, get 'x' next to their name, then pull big lever.

It all seems rather complicated – well done on figuring it out.

Though, give me the orange felt pens of Aotearoa any day!

There were people outside of voting booths with signs for their candidates, trying to rope voters into conversation. Handmade "Hillary in the House 09!!!!" posters were plastered on the walls. Yeah, she's so urban.…

And of course the Obama supporters will bring up the "Hillary is divisive" issue – I mean, the Hillary supporters are hardly likely to raise it, are they?

Nope, but I still find it weird that anyone isn't asking the obvious follow-ups every time she raises the 'experience' meme. I…

The question was "Whom would you NEVER vote for for President of the U.S.?" -…

Sure you've all seen it already, but electoral compass asks your opinion on various topics and tells you which candidate is closest to your position.

Well, well well – I just tried it out and it seems I'm closer to Obama than Edwards (who was my preferred candidate until he…

Building a library seems to the ex-presidential equivalent of the mid-life crisis Lamborghini — all good judgment, especially fiscal, goes down the crapper at warp 10.

http://www.naufrageur.com/articles/clintin/bill_couv4.htm

Bush is reponsible for quite a lot of the bad feeling but that plays out against a backdrop of a bit of bad faith within the international commnuity over the US role in world affairs that predates Bush.

Indeed – this isn't about not fronting up with a $5 Telethon…

...but I guess that would involve less smug moral superiority and a little action.

Joschka Fischer has a similar view.

Bush is reponsible for quite a lot of the bad feeling but that plays out against a backdrop of a bit of bad faith within the international commnuity over the…

If the US paid reparations (ho ho), it might even begin to recover.

Perhaps if everyone started turning those aid pledges into actual money... but I guess that would involve less smug moral superiority and a little action.

Nearly five years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, allied countries have…

I'm impressed with Michelle Obama, too. How can a family handle that much rhetorical flair? P

Very true, Rob. She is the best thing in American politics for as long as I can remember.

I don't buy that the monetary cost of pulling out of Iraq is a blocker, since it has to happen at some point. It's the political cost of the…

Lessig was impressed by Obama’s commitment to open systems — for example, his support of machine-readable government information standards that allow citizens’ groups to monitor what our government is up to..

Yes, I thought the Lessig thing was very interesting. I think that's an endorsement that's worth a few geek…

That's vile. Please leave your c.v. and full contact details at reception on your way out. :)

I saw some footage of her at that California rally with Oprah and Mrs. Governator, and she didn't strike me as a woman you'd want to get in bitch-off with at the PTA, because she'd politely but firmly serve your your arse in six different ways.

I wonder if they've…

It leaves heaps for the Democrats. Item one, cut ridiculous military costs by ending enormous pointless military engagement in Iraq.

My concern would be how long it would take to withdraw from Iraq. I would guess the only plan that does it within a year is just a complete abandonment…

I'm impressed with Michelle Obama, too. How can a family handle that much rhetorical flair?

When their daughters hit those tetchy teenage years, I don't fancy their chances of winning an argument over the dinner table. Ever. :) I saw some footage of her at that California rally with Oprah…

I thought something isn't quite right when a political speech can slide that easily into song lyrics.

Here's my concern: apart from Scarlett, we've got the actress who plays Addison Montgomery, Nicole from the Pussycat Dolls, John Legend, and Will.I.Am? Poor showing, celebrities! (On the other hand, it's nice to…

Thanks — the PC's been a real Hillary all day. :)

Re: Bill Clinton's ongoing sleeze. Good point! Why in god's name does he need to do mineral deals with dictators?

Building a library seems to the ex-presidential equivalent of the mid-life crisis Lamborghini — all good judgment, especially…

It reminds me of some '80s sitcom when an underachieving student realises he can learn stuff at school when he turns his study notes into hip hop rhymes.

Putting soemthing you have to learn into song is a damn good way of remembering it.

That's how I memorised the Scout…

Re: Bill Clinton's ongoing sleeze. Good point! Why in god's name does he need to do mineral deals with dictators?

Obama leaves me strangely cold with all his rhetoric dressed up as poetry.

That's the impression I got too. I thought something isn't quite right when a political speech can slide that easily into song lyrics.

It reminds me of some '80s sitcom when an underachieving student realises he can…

Taito Philip Field pleads guilty... lto offences under the Building Act

Don't underestimate how much it's going cost to withdraw from Iraq!

Has to happen sometime. Until then it's just a bottomless pit of cost.

It leaves heaps for the Democrats. Item one, cut ridiculous military costs by ending enormous pointless military engagement in Iraq.

Let me play the devil's advocate for a moment: In the gut where retail politics lives — and the curtained booth where ballots will be cast --, I don't think…

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid353515028/bctid1402023943

It leaves heaps for the Democrats. Item one, cut ridiculous military costs by ending enormous pointless military engagement in Iraq.

Don't underestimate how much it's going cost to withdraw from Iraq!

And Clinton, whatever else you might say about her, has probably had everything remotely resembling a bone plucked from hers long before now.

Oh, I wouldn't be too sure about that. I rather doubt Michelle Obama is going to be the occasion for stories like this:

Over the last decade,…

I got Obama. Furthest away from Huckerbee. Both of these make me happy.

Chap's theory: bad weather forecasts potentially favour not-McCain and presumably not-Obama.

Speaking of linux candidates, the guy from the geek web comic XKCD declared for Obama the same day the Kennedys did:

When putting together tech policy (to take an example close to home for xkcd) others might have gone…

We were joking the other day about how, given Obama's cadence and style, there would be a generic-house/Public Enemy-style track sampling him at some point (ala MLK).

Don't you mean Malcolm X ??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GK6KhR7meqQ

And even then, he's using growth predictions no one believes and fiddling Iraq war costs.

These people are really not good. But it certainly doesn't leave much for the Dems to play with ...

True – hard to say for certain. Who knows, maybe Obama has some great big skeleton in his closet. And Clinton, whatever else you might say about her, has probably had everything remotely resembling a bone plucked from hers long before now.

On the other hand, while Obama maybe…

...it's probably too close to call either way.

which is why I'm a bit skeptical of any claim by the Obama and Clinton camps of having any greater avantage over McCain (apart from being Dems of course) than the other.

There's now talk of this having to be decided at…

The polls may show Obama and Clinton performing about the same against McCain, but the thing is – at least as I see it – Hillary is probably polling as high as she ever will. Obama on the other hand, given his oratory and the like, might well…

California is a largely Dem state, and who they choose to run will be a very good indicator. Great stuff.

Hell yeah. It looks like it's all happening there:

In the Democratic race, Senator Obama of Illinois has moved into a statistical tie with Senator Clinton of New York; she…

There's been a bit of talk McCain will pick Huckabee as his running mate.

You're right about that. It seems like Huckabee is hanging in there until Super Tuesday so he can siphon conservative votes away from Romney in the South, hand McCain the nomination and then jump on the…

Apparently Huckabee has been lobbying hard for this.

Electorally it makes sense: the South will, as is usual these days, be crucial (perhaps even more so if the Dems nominate Obama) and more importantly it would…

That Obama video has been everywhere I've gone this morning (without, y'know, leaving my chair). About a third of the way through I did start to get an itching for concrete environmental policy,…

If Hilary wins the nomination and takes on McCain (the Republican candidate who is — by miles — least offensive to me) there is decent polling evidence that she will be undone by her negatives; that she can't win

What is that polling? The match-ups I've seen generally show [[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama|McCain…

As I noted in reply to Jolisa's post, it says something about the viral impact of the video itself.

Very true – although I hadn't noticed it before the PA mafia referenced it, it feels like something we'll be seeing a lot of.
Points if they get it played on…

Thanks for the kiwiboomers link--you will find that Roger Horrocks has added an interesting footnote to my piece.

That Horrocks is a groover, isn't he?

There's been several years when I've spotted Roger in the crowd at the BDO. It's always put a smile on my face, and made me…

And I now see is referenced on Ms Gracewoods blog today, and the speech referred to in Mr Slacks.
Always a step behind, aren't I?!

As I noted in reply to Jolisa's post, it says something about the viral impact of the video itself.

Always a step behind, aren't I?!

Thanks for the kiwiboomers link--you will find that Roger Horrocks has added an interesting footnote to my piece.

That Horrocks is a groover, isn't he?

If Hilary wins the nomination and takes on McCain (the Republican candidate who is — by miles — least offensive to me) there is decent polling evidence that she will be undone by her negatives; that she can't win.

I'm not so sure on that. She can win against McCain…