Thanks for a well reasoned post.
Did the OIA requests answers you got have any demographic information ie breakdown by age bands?
I am sceptical about the existence of much earlier programs that change behaviour, but still result in an initial offence that met the first strike criteria.
A sample link to a Swedish study finds strong correlation between past and future activity.
"Overall, acquiring a record for early delinquency was quite strongly prognostic of future crime"
http://bjc.oxfordjournals.org/content/31/4/327.abstract

Wow Linger, did you really just make an association from Key to mincing to (presumably) less masculine (or gay) and therefore that makes him "bad" or less worthy of respect? Apart sounding like a something a 12 year old would say, I'm pretty sure that falls into the stupid category of judging politicans by their appearance, gender and sexual preferences which really shouldn't have any place in these discussions.

Internet banking is so much better than PayPal - good choice to add it.

Arie Smith, "Face of Looting", turns out to be, in my opinion, yet another actual Christchurch Earthquake hero

Is it possible for Arie to be both a victim as well as a perpetrator? Does he have any responsibily for the situation or has the narrative moved beyond that, to he is only a victim and now a hero?