Posts by DexterX
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The sums Labour and National are doing revolve around Treasury growth forecasts which are:
Real economic growth of 2.3% is forecast for the year ending March 2012 and an average - growth rate of 2.9% per year is forecast for the years ended March 2012 to March 2016. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 6.5% in June 2011 to 4.7% in March 2016. A return to surplus in the operating balance (before gains and losses) is forecast for the year ending June 2015 and the ratio of net debt-to-GDP is forecast to peak in the same year.
The key factors these forecasts relies on are detailed here:
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/prefu2011/prefu11.pdfThey are banking on a demand for "food" in China and Asia, and the slow down globally not being that bad and also the Chch rebuild - so how is the Chch rebuild going:
Well you can see that here:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/Construction/canterbury-earthquake-building-consents.aspx4 new building consents for Sept 2011 looking at the figures - if things were under control - like say for instance the management of the economy and the Chch rebuild - the stats would have a more even spread and a surge in activity over this summer - me thinks - depending on what is going on with the rebuild & why it is stalling - it may be time for the pressure that must be building to present itself in public protest.
What do others say about the state of things: - Fletcher Building, who have a privileged position, have issued a profit warning forecast and the ASB and RBNZ: from the NZ Herald 31 Oct 2011 say this:
ASB's Turner said the "most crucial aspect of the construction outlook is the timing and extent of earthquake reconstruction activity and the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) is not expecting this to pick up in any meaningful extent until mid-2012."
None of this is going to matter to the election as the quarter ending Dec 2011 won't be considered until Feb and hey the new Govt is likely to say things are far worse than we expected but won't really move to address much until sometime later in the year 2012. Likely July 2012 when they can see how the tax take has been for the year ending Mar 2012.
I feel the treasury forecast are likely to be off significantly and that any reliance on the fiscal musing of the major parties based on the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2011 is about as beneficial as collecting rainwater with a teaspoon.
The short of it, IMHO, is we appeared to be screwed for the next few years.
The choice you have is to vote for the option that is likely to do the least harm - as in not make a bad situation worsen; I can't see that being Labour.
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to Steve Barnes,
A lot of my friends are journalists, none of which are slackers.
Journalism has little to to with editorial policy.Then you should have little trouble getting them lot, as friends, to reverse the eating away of democracy that is to Labour's detriment. They would have to go on a diet as far as truth is concerned.
When you say
Because anybody who lived through that last time they got a second term already knows?.
you are making refernce to the 1984 asset sales Labour Govt who got a second term and Goff?
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to Steve Barnes,
that the media driven fear of Labour is eating away at democracy.
They is just telling it how it is.
If you show a talent for being a slacker you become a journalist - you are not scared of anything - nothing drives you and you don't drive anything - IMHO.
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to linger,
Who ?? Say What?
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So very sorry - I slipped and bumped me head - how else could I not see Labour's goodness and destiny to be the govern-forever-ment by default.
All politics is now a foggy blur - I can see no evil or good in anybody or anything.
As I don't want to seem misguided or unbalanced my solution is to pick my favourite colours and my favourite song, "blue n green".
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to Steve Barnes,
Instead of complaining that Labour is not strong enough to be an effective opposition try actually voting for them
I did it they didn't work out on several occasions - I can't be bothered with them at present - they are troubled and not representative of much.
It is not a matter of strength - it is just that they present as being collectively witless.
Both National and Labour Govts RAM shit through under urgency. It is not unique to either of them. Except when Nats “do it” it is evil and when Labour “do it” it is for a greater good.
The left leaners need to stop seeing the political landscape as Labour GOOD - National BAD.
Labour and its died in the wool supporters are blind to addressing real issues or forming credible policy to such a degree they bypass budgeting for them - this translates to the electorate as bullshit.
You can’t be serious - accusing Maori of being spiteful – In a nut shell Maori interests in Labour were patient and when Helen would not accommodate “them” and made it clear their “rights at law” were being extinguished for electoral expediency they parted company. Gosh that plan worked well.
The Keyholes thing is petty and dum. - First Citizen John Key the First is happy smiling guy, when Goff say he is liar he just laugh at him. No problem for you, no problem for me, no problem for First Citizen – he so great every people everywhere much love him – happy people everywhere marching around in his honour - end of story
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Hard News: We interrupt this broadcast ..., in reply to Craig Ranapia,
Labour's support for assisted suicide
The labour line was “It is not a beauty contest; we are going to focus on policy - not one man”.
In the first televised debate Goff attacked Key personally and the focus was on Key not on policy.
When the emphasis did shift to policy (and funding policy) in the further debates Goff was not prepared.
In the event that Goff did get up and Labour suffered the indignation of a lift in the polls - I am pretty sure they would implode as factions in Labour are banking on the loss.
Labour 2008 to 2011 have not proved a credible opposition - for whatever reason - they are unlikley to become a credible government for quite sometime.
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Speaker: Doing the right thing on retirement, in reply to andin,
No need - You were wishing you hadn't been born - you seem quite apt at bringing yourself down.
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Goff isn't supported, should he do much better than he is doinjg now I am sure Labour will deliberately implode.
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Speaker: Doing the right thing on retirement, in reply to Sacha,
It is the best we can hope for.