Posts by David Hood
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After his death, I was thinking “First we take Manhattan” was very much in the spirit of the U.S. election. I see Billboard Magazine has felt similar- suggesting “First we take Manhattan” and “Everybody Knows” as post-election songs.
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Speaker: No, there isn’t a popular…, in reply to Danyl Mclauchlan,
We will never, in our lifetimes, see another election like that which is more favourable to the core values and concerns of the contemporary left
Unless the Republican economic policies are, as independent analysis suggests, going to be really bad for those not at the top of the economic ladder. With Obama in the whitehouse and the Republicans controlling congress, there was argument about whose fault the stagnation was. For the next 2 or 4 years Republicans control both.
Now I am not saying the Democratic party would rise to the challenge to field a candidate that leads to fundamental change, but I think they will have the opportunity.
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Hard News: Be careful what you wish for, in reply to izogi,
Would it require much constitutional change in the USA for the Federal Government to take control of running its own national elections, or at least setting and enforcing stricter standards?
Yes. It would take massive constitutional change, you need a constitutional amendment. The power to choose the members of the electoral college is vest in the state legislators (technically elections are optional, if it was state law that the state legislator appointed them, then that is what that state could do).
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/provisions.html
The only electoral system change with any hope of eventually happening is the National Popular Vote compact between states- and even that is drawing on the fact that states can do what they like to appoint electors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
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The atlantic had a good article on measuring the effects of voter suppression
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting/506963/
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to ,
How do we know that?
Exit polling- so it is those people willing to answer surveys outside where they have voted.
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Rob Stowell,
How does Trump even begin to satisfy the white working class voters who elected him?
The white voters that elected him. Don’t single out the working class.
College educated white voters voted 49% Trump 45% Clinton (though Clinton get more votes among college educated white women).
The Telegraph has what I think is quite a good graphic, showing that rural votes (in the swing states) made a huge difference,
My feeling is that as civic participation decreases, it means that the voting population is harder for pollsters to model, as one off events can result in bigger changes in turnout among voting blocks, so past elections are less predictive.
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Envirologue: 1080, “eco-terrorism” and agendas, in reply to Rosemary McDonald,
as an ordinary individual citizen would effect any change
I strongly and passionately disagree with this. In my personal experience, an ordinary citizen, with command of the full facts and able to mount a cogent and comprehensive arguement, can effect change.
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Tom Semmens,
First brexit now this – polling is completely broken
It looks like Clinton will likely be with 2% of the popular vote estimate. National polls were pretty accurate in that respect.
People had been pointing out for some time that being very popular in places like Texas and Alabama (for a Democrat) and California and New York might help you win the primary, but those votes aren’t of any use in a general election because they don’t alter any state results.
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Envirologue: 1080, “eco-terrorism” and agendas, in reply to Rosemary McDonald,
I’ll read the book…maybe when it lands in the discount bin
I’ll put in a plug for the countries public libraries here, and if you want to read it checking through that route.
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Hard News: Trump’s Dummkopfs, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
Could still win – there’ll be a lot of voters who won’t admit to a pollster they support him.
And a possible reverse effect among conservative leaning women, who would not publicly admit supporting Clinton