Posts by linger
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Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to izogi,
The second question is much easier: NZF will vanish without Winston, as nobody else on their list has much media exposure or experience in office or even basic competence.
Don't know where NZF supporters would turn next (though I would guess probably slightly more to National than to the Left). -
being dumped at the instigation of Peters and then pliantly giving that government a free ride on confidence and supply
Yes, it's possible; after all, it's happened before.
But, what else would you have the Greens do?Peters doesn’t actually have to choose sides at all, of course. in some ways, sitting outside as an independently vocal opposition to a minority government, without any of the concomitant responsibilities of government, might be the best outcome for Peters at this stage in his career.
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Meanwhile, what I would take from the poll result is that the Greens have wasted much of the media recognition they had built up. Metiria was a recognizable public face for the party. The other one (James Shaw?) is not yet as instantly recognizable a media presence. Even if the Greens cannot officially choose a new co-leader yet, they desperately need to have at least one more regular, recognizable, competent spokesperson to fill the media void (and Chloe would seem the most likely choice for that role).
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Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
It also seems perverse to think of punishing the Greens for something Winston First may do.
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Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to Rob Stowell,
You can dream all you like Rob, but Labour won’t gain more votes than National this time. (Yeah, I don’t know why National remains so popular either, but there we are.) So Labour’s chances of forming a government really do depend on their possible coalition partners and how closely aligned to Labour they are.
Winston First, and Dunne (if he gets in), are least aligned. Both have a history of supporting the party with the largest vote share. They could work with Labour, but are more likely first to give National a chance to form a government. Winston also has historically been reluctant to lend any support to the Greens.
Greens, Mana (if Hone gets in), and (probably) Maori are at the moment more likely to align with Labour, but their numbers are looking uncertain.
TOP? Dunno. Unlikely they’ll make the threshold, so that’s potentially 3-4% of the disillusioned-with-National vote (which might otherwise have been a Left vote) wasted there. [Edit for Stephen: yes, a vote for an ultimately unsuccessful party signals something, it's not entirely meaningless ... but if, even as you vote, you know they won't get in at all, it doesn't directly help change anything either, and in that sense is a wasted chance for change. Nevertheless, I agree that voting for something is better than not voting at all.]Labour’s best overall chance of success, strategically, is to campaign on party vote rather than electorate support against Harawira and Dunne. Other than that it’s tricky: Labour needs to increase its party vote share, but not at the expense of removing the Greens.
That said, this poll probably underrepresents Green Party support, and it is almost certain that they will make it over the threshold. For one thing the Greens have usually done rather better among expats and other special voters, who are underrepresented in polls.
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Hard News: The new establishment, in reply to Craig Young,
You're really saying that criminal behaviour is genetically based?
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It's bloody frustrating to watch; a performance worthy of the People's Front of Judea.
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Also worth noting: an upcoming series of Radiotopia Showcase podcasts under the heading “Ways of Hearing”, on the theme of how digital technology has changed the way we listen to music. (The first one, on “Time”, appeared last Tuesday on 99 Percent Invisible.)
Ways of Hearing is a six-episode series hosted by musician Damon Krukowski (Galaxie 500, Damon & Naomi), exploring the nature of listening in our digital world. Each episode looks at a different way that the switch from analog to digital audio is influencing our perceptions, changing our ideas of Time, Space, Love, Money, Power and Noise. In the digital age, our voices carry further than they ever did before, but how are they being heard?
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Access: A short disability history of…, in reply to WaterDragon,
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never deliberately in a position to lie to WINZ
I take it to mean, she’s assuming some other position that I don’t want to visualise.
Seriously, that’s … not just odd, not just spinning, but a deviantly legalistic turn of phrase, too hedged by far to have any real-world application.