Posts by Craig Ranapia
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Emma Hart,
Yes, it is odd. But. It’s also slightly disingenuous to compare figures in Chch Central without noting the boundary redraw.
Fair enough as far as it goes, but in my own defense Public Address is very dangerous ground for confidently pontificating above your level of competence. :) I don’t know how boundary changes in CCC changed the game, at least on paper, but I think they can be over-stated. Or at least over-spun.
Did boundary changes in Wellington Central do Prebble any favours in 1999? No, but frankly I think it was utterly disingenuous of him – and unfair to Marian Hobbs and a pretty slick and disciplined campaign – to paint himself as the victim of boundary creep. More recently, boundary changes in Palmerston North notionally made Iain Lees-Galloway more vulnerable. Instead he almost trippled his majority.
So no, I’m not buying “Wagner reduced”.
Just as well I’m not selling it, then. Simple statement of fact – and one you might have thought would have placed CC on the media’s radar. OTOH, given the spew-inducing “battle of the babes” coverage of Auckland Central we might have dodged a bullet there.
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This really isn’t good enough, Auckland.
YMMV, but it's not good enough that too many damn good documentaries are lucky if they do the Film Festival circuit and eventually wash up on DVD. (And, as depressingly usual, if they screen on television at all Maori is your best bet - Patu, Hoop Dreams and When We Were Kings immediately come to mind. Along with more good foreign "arthouse" movies than you shake an arty-farty stick at.)
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Emma Hart,
The biggest factor against him may be simply the weariness that Hebe was talking about, making the effort of casting a special vote just seem like too much. Especially in an electorate that nobody was talking about as a marginal before the election.
You may well be right, but I find it odd that nobody was talking about Christchurch Central as a marginal when between 2002 and 2008 Wagner reduced Labour's majority from almost ten and a half thousand to 935. (To be fair, any political journo could fairly retort: "20/20 hindsight, ain't it grand? ChCh Central is still an electorate Labour has held since it was created in 1946, and Tim Barnett's majority in 1996 was 653.")
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Hebe,
The less you have (business, home, family, roots and networks) the easier it is to leave. I seriously question myself at least once a month whether it’s worth staying
Aw, hugs Hebe – and I’d be exactly the same in your position. I’m sure Burns and Wagner are hoping the specials definitively break their way, and only saying that to my ear ( IMO, YMMV and there’s nothing wrong with that, of course ) it would have been more edifying if he’d not gone so heavy in the media on the “my voters left town” angle.
And on Twitter, someone DM’d me this quote from Wagner: “We’ve gone from this red town and moving to be a stronger and safer blue city.” Baby Jesus on a stick, there’s plenty of euphoria to go round but let’s show more class than ass. I’m not Lianne’s biggest fan, but that’s damn insulting to someone I keep hearing (even from Cantabs who are Tory blue down to their DNA) was a great local MP and advocate.
I know this sounds like petty tone-trolling, but thinking twice about what you say, and how you say it, does matter. And I'd like to think nobody, nowhere appreciates politicians trying to use catastrophes like the ChCh quakes as political poo points.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Sacha,
I’m sure Cantabrians don’t need us Aucklanders speaking for them, and certainly not painting them as victims.
FFS, Sacha, is it OK if I suggest Burns stop blaming people who’ve left the city for finding himself in a dead heat? Clayton Cosgrove seems able to do it. So does Meagan Woods, Lianne Dalziel and Ruth Dyson who, I’m sure, would prefer their majorities were a little more comfortable.
And last time I looked, Burns is a sodding Member of Parliament. I thought we were big on expecting MPs to own their words around here? I found it tone deaf on Burns' part, and obviously plenty of folks agree to disagree. Fair enough - but I don't think it's fair, or welcome, to act as if a clear expression of personal opinion was "speaking for" anyone in Canterbury.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Lilith __,
Plus the turnout was only 74 percent.
Yes, the trend of declining turnouts for local body and general elections is a worry. But it doesn’t make the outcomes any less legitimate. Which, for the record, is what I said to certain folks on the right vapouring that Len Brown had a “weak mandate” after winning a plurality of mayoral votes off a 50% turnout. Oh, Boo-fragging-hoo, you sooks.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Russell Brown,
Turning on the radio to hear the Prime Minister again apparently not knowing what words mean was vaguely dispiriting this morning.
Be fair, Russell - he was probably disorientated by the new experience of appearing live on Morning Report. :)
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Russell Brown,
And you’ll give him a good lecture about it from Auckland?
Thanks, Russell. I guess I'm also geo-blocked from saying I wish Nikki Wagner would stop saying the result is, in large part, some shining endorsement of National's post-#eqnz actions. It may also be perfectly true, but am damn near certain Emma, David H. and a number of other PAS-ers up and down the country would demand to differ.
I'm also shocked to find myself saying this: The usually class-free zone that is Clayton Cosgrove played it right on Morning Report. Congratulated Kate Wilkinson on a strong campaign, but he'd just wait until the specials were all counted.
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But if you really want to nit-pick, Key could more accurately, if inelegantly, say National scored "a huge plurality" of the party vote on Saturday night - 21 points clear of the next largest bloc. :)
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Russell Brown,
Why?
Because I know too many damn people who’ve lost their homes, businesses and are facing a future that could most charitably be described as on a dimmer. A lot have stayed, and good on them; but others have left and it’s been terribly painful. And yes, Mr Burns, that includes a fair number of Tories.
The dead heat in Christchurch Central is one hell of an election night WTF, and I certainly don’t envy Burns and Wagner the uneasy nights sleep they’ll be having until the final is declared. But it would have just been a little classy of Burns not to bring red flight into it.
Key called it “a huge majority” on Morning Report today. I really wish he wouldn’t do that.
But we can agree on that - "largest share of the party vote in any MMP election" is enough of an achievement, and has the added benefit of being precise. Also, to be bloody minded about it, the National-led government (with ACT & UF) has a majority but not a huge one.
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