Posts by linger
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Hard News: And so it begins ..., in reply to Bart Janssen,
people make a decision and then fit every fact into that decision.
I wonder whether that’s a natural defaultSure is: I’ve previously linked to episodes of The Human Zoo detailing such cognitive biases.
(The episodes remain available for streaming or download.) -
Hard News: All Change, in reply to Neil,
It would be a bit awkward to gear up such an industry only to have demand suddenly drop off.
Three things that will still need doing regardless of future immigration policy:
Christchurch rebuild (...still, after nearly 8 years…);
Kaikoura rebuild;
Affordable housing (remembering that National didn't even get 1% of the way towards addressing the existing shortfall).
I think the building industry is safe for a few decades yet. -
Hard News: What we learned yesterday…, in reply to Craig Ranapia,
Why bother asking that question when we know the answer: they had to go into coalition with a partner that wants as much as possible done through referenda. We can wish it were otherwise, but there it is. That nod to realpolitik (*hoik* *spit*) aside, I agree with you entirely.
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though it can also promote misinformation of the public
(cf so-called "smacking" referendum) -
Hard News: All Change, in reply to simon g,
Newsweek, who tell us “The newly approved immigration policy for the coalition is estimated to cut refugees by 20,000 to 30,000 each year.”
For effing factchecking's sake! Estimated by which innumerate cretin? That's more refugees than NZ has taken in total over the past 50 years.
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Hard News: The climate changed, in reply to nzlemming,
Given that SH1 continues south from Picton, that’s still the most logical interpretation of it. Though the Interislander (but not other ferry services) is also technically a continuation of the main trunk railway line.
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It's probably too obvious to mention, but this choice serves an important practical purpose for Winston First too: joining a more fragmented government gives him and (more importantly for succession planning) many of his party's MPs more of a chance for media attention over the term. If Peters doesn't like either Labour's or the Greens' positions on an issue, he can still take a contrary position in the media without fear of reprisals. Allying himself with National, essentially being absorbed into them for most practical purposes, would have given NZF far less freedom, and far more risk of oblivion at the next election. Both times NZF previously joined the government, its support fell below 5% at the next election, so this has to be an important consideration.
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Hard News: All Change, in reply to andin,
sports writers
“How about the Sports Minister? Does the Sports Minister have a sack?
The Sports Minister should be sacked! ”
As with certain other male members of the MSM, I find myself asking: is the sexism inbuilt, or is it just what they believe will appeal to their target audience? -
Hard News: The climate changed, in reply to Jason Kemp,
ozone levels dropping
levels of ozone-depleting chemicals dropping; not quite the same thing! But yes, a welcome long-term development.
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Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the Special…, in reply to Dennis Frank,
Maori party candidates tended to outpoll the Maori party vote, for the very practical reason that winning an electorate was the only chance the Maori party ever had of getting any representation at all. In their case the party vote would determine how many extra list candidates could come in as well (if any) if, and only if, at least one electorate was won, so the electorate-vote stakes were a lot higher.