Posts by Craig Ranapia
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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread, in reply to Yamis,
What’s going to happen in the next 4-8 years etc when the percentage of white population/voters drops further and the minorities vote increases?
Who knows, but I don't think it would be a particularly smart long game for Democrats to assume African-Americans and Hispanics are theirs, electorally speaking.
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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread, in reply to Hebe,
I was impressed by him, which is confusing given the campaign awfulnesses.
No it isn't confusing at all -- and that's been the problem with Romney all along the line. About the only thing you can say for Rick Santorum is that he's an in your face, unapologetic racist, homophobic misogynist war-monger who thinks there is no meaningful separation between church and state, and that any kind of social safety net is the work of Satan. And he will say so anywhere, any time to anyone.
Romney is a coldly cynical moral black hole. Either he didn't believe a fucking word he said to the far-right base during the primaries, or he did and just lied his arse off while trying to position himself as a "moderate" when - and only when - it was electorally useful. If you want to clear a couple of weeks, I'll enumerate every issue I have with Obama, his administration and his party. But at least I'm not disagreeing with a Panderer-in-Chief.
And there's a bigger picture problem here for the GOP. As I've often said, Richard Nixon and the Ronald Reagan who actually served as Governor of California would be ideologically unacceptable to the current debased Tea Bagger/theo-con Republican Party. And don't even delude yourself that Eisenhower or Teddy Roosevelt would have got past the New Hampshire primary.
And, sadly, I don't think Republicans lost big enough to puncture the denialist narrative that the only problem is that Romney wasn't extreme enough.
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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread, in reply to Andrew Geddis,
He’ll end up with a “mandate” of over a million votes in the popular vote.
But even if Obama doesn't, that's not actually how the United States elects a President. I'd really expect someone who lectures, writes and extensively comments on American politics to... you know, point that out.
Michelle Bachmann is leading by a similarly small margin.
If Tea Party pin up Bachmann -- who also outspent her Democrat opponent twelve to one -- loses her seat, I'm going to break the internet with schadentweets. You've been warned.
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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread, in reply to Steve Barnes,
So does this mean Obama is presiding over a predominately Republican House?.
Well, yes - because it looks like even thought the Republicans are going to have a net loss in the House they'll still comfortably maintain a majority. OTOH, people were widely picking a GOP majority in the Senate that isn't going to happen.
But you're wrong in the sense that no President ever "controls" Capitol Hill, by design. Separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches, and all that jazz...
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I'm really fucking sick of hearing from people who should know better -- not least Jon Johansson on One -- that Obama won't have a "real mandate" unless he wins the popular vote. Low-information punditry, gotta love it...
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Meanwhile, downticket, it's looking like marriage equality is going to have a good(-ish) night -- though Maryland is going to make Florida look decisive. :)
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So, is there any hard data -- and please don't quote exit polls or cable news projections at me or I'll forget I'm a gentleman. :)
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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread, in reply to Lucy Stewart,
She’s run a strong and consistent campaign for the last few months, did very well in the three debates they had
That she has -- we can all get terribly clever gaming the polls and coming up with convoluted conspiracy theories, but never misunderestimate the value of consistently getting the ground game basics right, I haven't looked at Brown's record closely enough to know whether he's an actual moderate, or one of the Romney variety, but trying to pin Warren as some tax-and-spend out-of-touch liberal elitists doesn't seem to be working.
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I did see a comment yesterday declaring that the Republicans have bungled as many as five Senate races: Akin, Mourdock, can't recall the others ...
Scott Brown in Massachusetts -- who had the Tea Party having a collective orgasm after he picked up arch-liberal hate object Ted Kennedy's seat. Democrat Elizabeth Warren's opened up a small, but consistent, lead despite, shall we say, a rather unpleasant primary and an enthusiasm gap among her own party.
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For me, the real interest is going to be down-ticket. Has Todd 'Legitimate Rape' Aiken thrown a race that should never have been competitive in the first place? We shall see.
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