Posts by Ian Tinkler
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Legal Beagle: Election '20: The Special Votes, in reply to webweaver,
I think open lists are an option. There is an option used in the London Assembly. However for this to work in NZ that would mean some kind of regionising lists to get the options short enough
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Last Night I didn’t think the specials would make any difference. After reading your analysis and thinking about it I have concluded don’t create a model at 2:15am and think it makes sense. That is my model not yours.
My model does create a different result than yours. That is because I have made some assumptions
1. that Labour’s Specials will be weaker that 2017. Based on election night they are higher in 2020 and less room to increase.
2. I assumed that both National and ACT will have fewer about 15% special that election night votes
3. To me it appears that turn out is well over 80%. I expect this to mean that a lot of younger voters that proportionally will have voted Green. I therefore boast the Greens by more than 2017
So my model resultsSpecials
Votes %
Labour 255,218 51.56%
National 112,789 22.79%
ACT 33,587 6.79%
Green 56,191 11.35%
Maori 8,309 1.68%
NZ First 11,626 2.35%
Others 17,280 3.49%Final
Votes % Seats
Labour 1,424,615 49.53% 64
National 751,182 26.11% 34
ACT 223,693 7.78% 10
Green 236,415 8.22% 11
Maori 32,247 1.12% 1
NZ First 75,073 2.61% 0
Others 133,247 4.63% 0 -
Let's do this
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Does appear to be a low voter turn out. I made a few guesses on specials and concluded the same seat changes as Graeme. Though my percentages vary a little different.
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My Fav article is by Scott Yorke
https://imperatorfish.com/2017/03/31/i-bought-my-first-house-when-i-was-23-and-now-i-own-four-heres-how-i-did-it/ -
Legal Beagle: Wellington Super City? Not…, in reply to Keir Leslie,
We cannot blame Tony Maryatt on Parker. He was appointed under Moore
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As said above, Christchurch City residents did not vote for amalgamation. Bob Parker found a loop hole (after the initial proposal was rejected) that meant rural BP became part of urban CCC.
That union still makes no sense. Masterton being part of Wellington make no sense either -
If the Labour Party spent half the energy on fighting National they are spending on fighting themselves they might have become government. However every MP seems to have an ego that prevents this. And Cunliffe is probably the worst.
Another thing is why pick Matt McCarten for strategy. Matt is charming and I like the man. I have been a room where he professes the campaigns he won for the Alliance In the real world those campaign were won because people wanted a change nothing to do with Matt.
I think the Labour Party needs to take a good hard look at itself. Once it works out what is is them pick a leader that reflect it. Picking a leader first is the plain stupid
Sorry for the muddled response
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Only cause I'm old and like the Pogues