Posts by James Green
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Southerly: One Hundred and Thirty-one…, in reply to Lilith __,
Isn't Cochrane the authority?
That would usually be the case yes. However, the latest meta-analysis includes newer studies with null findings, which may have some bearing.
A little more controversially, in the full text of the article they discuss some concerns with the Cochrane review. Firstly, the authors that conducted the Cochrane review were also authors of almost half of the papers included in the same review, which isn't ideal practice. Relatedly, when you are doing a meta-analysis it is usual to set inclusion and exclusion criteria, often based on the quality of studies. The excluding meant that more of the authors paper got included, relative to other studies with weaker findings (and their included and excluded papers don't line up with the attempts of others to do the sam). And possibly some other things (I'm writing this from memory rather than the paper).Epidemiology is a much darker art than even I would countenance. Binary outcomes lead to weaker statistics so you need much larger sample sizes, or as is more usually the case, a much greater degree of uncertainty.
FWIW, I skimmed all the post-2000 papers before my first post, and rapidly came to the conclusion from the lack of consensus that it would take a great deal of effort to come to an opinion on the research. I'd literally have to read very carefully all the papers, think critically about them, and then re-read the meta-analyses in the light of what I could deduce from the source papers. And even then I don't really know that I'd have a good answer (or that I'd really know enough to make an informed judgement).
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Southerly: One Hundred and Thirty-one…, in reply to Lisa Black,
As someone said above, helmet research is contested. What I would like to see is a graphic showing the average results of the studies. I'd like to be able to see whether the increased level of protection in the less likely direct impact scenario is outweighed by the increased likelihood of injury in the more common rotational head and neck twist injuries.
There is no easy graphic that I have seen that summarises this. According to the meta-analyis I linked to earlier (which you probably can't seen unless you are on a university computer), the protective effect of helmets appears to be declinding with time. Older studies find greater protection than newer studies. Explanations could include the change from hard to soft shells, or greater power and more precise estimates in earlier studies (to achieve significance in a less powerful study you need a bigger effect estimate). the study concludes:
Do bicycle helmets reduce the risk of injury to the head, face or neck? With respect to head injury, the answer is clearly yes, and the re-analysis of the meta-analysis reported by Attewell et al. (2001) in this paper has not changed this answer. As far as facial injury is concerned, evidence suggests that the protective effect is smaller, but on balance there does seem to be a slight protective effect. The risk of neck injury does not seem to be reduced by bicycle helmets. There are only four estimates of effect, but they all indicate an increased risk of injury. When the risk of injury to head, face or neck is viewed as a whole, bicycle helmets do provide a small protective effect. This effect is evident only in older studies. New studies, summarised by a random-effects model of analysis, indicate no net protective effect (Elvik, 2011)
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Southerly: One Hundred and Thirty-one…, in reply to Steve Barnes,
Others do research
And this research seems very strongly contested. The stats you source are from a 1989 paper. The same authors produced a Cochrane Review on cycle helmets in 2009, but which has been criticized for including mostly their own studies. This stuff would take a long time to unpick (more time that I have this afternoon). But I note that the most recent meta-analysis finds the effectiveness of cycle helmets to be declining with time.
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Southerly: One Hundred and Thirty-one…, in reply to JackElder,
I often think that the main thing keeping me safe on the roads is the high cost of panelbeating; people have an abstract interest in keeping me alive, but a concrete interest in their paintwork.
My experience of cycling round Venice, Santa Monica and further inland would attest to this. There not so much the cost of panel-beating as being sued. I felt much safer cycling there (with no helmet) than here with a helmet. Also in play might be the sheer width of the roads (although then there is the sheer size of things that might hit you as well). On a street with consecutive 4-way stops, it was always fun to beat (easily) Porshe, Aston Martin et al.
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I love walking, but live a little far away (meaning it takes too long), so since returning from europe, have been biking more frequently.
Hills are a definite factor. There is a little over 100m vertical difference between home and work. Not an enormous climb, but means not much hassle getting to work, and relatively more getting home. However, I can cycle to work in a jacket and pants, take t-shirt and shorts to work, and gently fold flasher clothes into pack for the trip home. -
The Hop Zombie was the first time I've ever used "passionfruit" to describe the smell of a beer. I found it delicious, but was splitting a bottle. We then moved on to Emerson's Bird Dog Alpha Male, which is also a pretty hoppy little number, but a little less extreme hop than the previous Bird Dog, which I'd prefer as a hoppy zenith to Hop Zombie.
In contrast to the wonders of the little guys, the best thing I can say about Monteith's Source is that it smells like Wanaka Beerworks when they are cooking mash. It's a cute idea, but I'd rather just buy an actual craft beer. -
In response to Kyle: While I can't guarantee that they don't use a ghastly amount of energy, Santa Monica has an outdoor ice-rink in what passes for 'winter' there. While I don't think it gets much sun on the ice, the outdoor temperature probably passes for summer *cough* in Dunedin (daily highs in the 15-20 range).
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On cookie cutter houses, QV recently released some stats on average house size by area. Selwyn district (home of Rolleston), ties with Queenstown-Lakes for the largest average house size (181m2) in the country. This is extra amusing, as Selwyn also has the locality with the smallest (71m2, Arthur's Pass). Rolleston doesn't make it to the list of top localities, but must be a massive driver of this, along with the all the lifestyle blocks.
The North Shore comes in 3rd, and a lot of the areas around Albany (Schnapper Rock, Fairview Heights, and Albany Heights) are key whoppers.
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The thing I've never been able to work out about the floating system is how you relevel it after a quake.
Perhaps ask Meridian Energy. I understand that Tekapo B is mounted on a concrete raft because the bedrock is underneath a stupidly deep amount of moraine.
Shulgin:
And as for the other days, the howling westerly will just create waves, there will be no mirror. Sorry it's just too grand, great for it's hemisphere, but not roaring 40's.
You are a bit literal. It's the changing and unpredictable nature of it that makes it so captivating. It only works as a "mirror" during a fairly brief phase of its cycle (at its best when entirely empty, not at all when it is mist fountains). And the wind is a red herring. Bordeaux has a wicked seabreeze, and it's a seriously exposed open space (I really can't think of anywhere in Christchurch that has that little shelter; it's right next to a 400m wide river, and quite far from any buildings and trees). and at those times there is no frolicking, but the waves add an interesting dimension. I also have to wonder if you have ever lived in Canterbury. I think it would be super popular in a norwest. Hell, at my (high) school we use to go and run through the irrigator on the sports field.
I'm also not suggesting that Christchurch should wholesale copy it, but that it is a time to embrace opportunities. Bordeaux really reinvented itself a decade ago (mostly to try and win some european thing), but pedestrianising, tramming, and other cool things have really made it an amazing city.
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new CERA CEO Roger Sutton mumbled something about his vision for an ice skating rink in the centre of Christchurch, as a focus, it could be a paddling pool in the summer, a place for people to "gather"
That might sound lame on first acquaintance, but if this were to be 1/10 as cool as the Miroir d'Eau in Bordeaux, then you are seriously under-selling this man. It is the heart of a modern re-vitalised city, and is just amazing at all hours of day and night (seriously try this second link, and you'll see something that both looks amazing, but is also really heavily used).