Posts by BenWilson
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which simply missed – or misread – millions of voters
I would guess it's the first of those options more than the second. The number of undecideds was high even until the last minute.
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I guess what I'm saying is that if someone offered you a loaded gun and told you it had two bullets in the chambers, and then spun it, and you put it to your head, just because your brains are on the floor is not a reason to dispute that there were, in fact, only 2 bullets in there. You just had bad luck.
If the predictions had been more like 95:5, I'd be seriously doubting the methodology, thinking something very unlikely just happened. But 2:1 is really not that bad a chance for the underdog.
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Bart Janssen,
Probability is a bitch. When I saw yesterday that it was on about 67:33 for Clinton I reflected that rolling a dice and expecting it not to come up 1 or 2 is statistically correct but not something I'd bet my entire nation on willingly.
However, even now, a 40% chance is still a shot. I'll watch it to the death before making sure I've hoarded enough gas and canned food.
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Russell Brown,
It's looking very even in Florida. But Illinois going for Clinton just bumped her chances.
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Russell Brown,
Yes, by nightfall the probability will most likely have settled at zero or one.
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
Not saying Trump *will* win, but that there is a finite probability that he will.
Well that's always true, no matter how he's polling. Zero is, after all, a finite number. But presumably you mean there is a non-zero chance. In which case note that 0.000000000000000000000000000001 is also non-zero. So again, that one is always true. Any event that is not completely impossible has a non-zero chance.
But in the case of this election there's no need to be so pedantic. The chances of a Trump win are not insignificant. They're scarily high, considering what is at risk.
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Even at the very lowest Trump got to in the last few months, around 11%, that's still not a shoo in, that's a chance you would not want to bet your savings on. Well, OK, depending on the payout and your taste for risk, of course.
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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip, in reply to Bart Janssen,
When the polling in the states is taken, and the variance in the polls modeled, and then Monte Carlo simulations of all of that applied to the actual electoral race, FiveThirtyEight is still giving Trump a 30% chance of winning up to yesterday. That's an actual probability, not some other kind of number. So it's not "no doubt". It's "scarily close". It's still likely to be Clinton, but definitely not a shoo in.
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Hang on, you're asking if you can get a COF for some other kind of purpose without a TSL? I think so. I don't know exactly and it's not really relevant to the discussion, which is about driving for Uber or Taxis. I think rental cars tend to have COFs but don't need a TSL. It's a trick that Uber might use after your car gets impounded, telling you to use a rental car. It won't fool the next cop, of course, but it might fool a driver into thinking he's all sweet now, until he gets caught again and this time will have the full weight of the Land Transport Act thrown at him. His rental car will be impounded this time.
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Speaker: Confessions of an Uber Driver…, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
Not sure what you're asking if I'm sure about, Rich. A passenger service vehicle is required to operate under a PSL. So they require you to produce one. What I'm saying is that AFAIK there is no checking done on whether the TSL you show them belongs to someone who employs you. Just so long as you show the TSL card, and you pass the vehicle inspection otherwise, you are granted the COF.
If you apply for a COF, you have to say what kind of commercial vehicle service it is for. Obviously you don't have to apply for a COF at all. But if you're caught driving passengers for hire or reward in a vehicle without one, you will very likely cop a fine and a stop-work order.