Posts by Neil Morrison
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I don't recall anyone signing up to a pledge to stop campaigning.
In fact they did and they mostly kept to that pledge. But then they are both lawyers - whose envelope pushing abilities put a lot of posties to shame.
I've got no idea how this issue will play out - Obama may trounce Her Royal Clintoness in the up-coming primaries. But I think the Dems will have to consider the will of a large number of voters in a state that has played a pivotal role in the past (remember 2000).
Obama wins Washington state but Clinton wins California - so in fact Obama is Microsoft and HRC is Apple.
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But its not internal democrat feuding, its the rules that they all agreed upon that were clearly based upon their party constitution.
I was thinking more of the spat between the DNC and the Florida Dem Party which left the delegates not counted. It's one of those chance events that can change things dramatically. The outcome of the contest might come down to such vagaries of the process.
But expect both candidates to work the rules to their advantage. I heard no complaints from the Obama camp that with 65,000 fewer votes than HRC on Super Tuesday Obama got a handful more delegates.
It's a bit hard to get any real indication of what an Obama administration would look like compared to a Hillary one but looking at their advisors is one possible way - The War Over the Wonks. Check out how many of Obama's crew used to work for Bill Clinton. Makes the whole campaign look like a family squabble.
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There was a rule that said anyone who campaigns in Florida gets no delegates at all at the convention. Obama, who wants some delegates, followed this ruling, didn't campaign,
err, he did camaign, he ran TV adds (they were national which included Florida). Hillary didn't, although she did show at a non-public fundraiser. So Obama not quite the Saint, he didn't follow the rules - or at least he didn't follow the spirit of the rules.
Hillary got the vote even though no one campained. And she's always going to do well there because of the demographics. Internal Democat feuding means the Florida vote doesn't count a present but there is no reason that the party can't reconsider that.
If Florida had gone for Obama he would be arguing that those delegates be included.
I'm continually surprised at strenght of the Saint Obama vs Evil Hillary meme.
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With Michigan and Florida, fingers crossed it doesn't come down to a battle between lawyers. I gather there are about 3 committees that would have to look at what to do about rule changes.
But if Obama had one these don't you think he'd be rather keen to have those delegates counted?
And for Hillary - of the 1.7 million democrat voters in Florida a large majority voted for her. She does well with the Latino vote as we’ve seen in California. If the results of the nomination were to rest on whether or not those votes should counted it would be hard to argue that they shouldn't.
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From Brad Kelley -
Paul Krugman wrote a series of editorials a few months back about how Obama was adopting criticisms of the health care plans right out of the Republican play book, as if there was some merit to these criticisms, and as if they needed to be met (“The Mandate Muddle,” Dec. 7, 2007, and “Mandates and Mudslinging,” Nov. 30, 2007). These articles are distressing as well. I won’t belabor the issues here, but you should read these for yourselves before deciding to be moved by Obama’s populist rhetoric.
What Obama has also done is directly copy the 1990s TV ads made by the insurance industry used to attack Hillary's health reforms. He used Republican arguments to drum up fear that her system would be too complex and costly. He's really on the back foot on this issue and has respoded with dirty tricks.
Politics as normal. And Clinton is not innocent of this sort of thing.
But health reform is one of the major goals of any future Democart admistration. If Obama is trying to scare Dems away from what is considerede by most people the best set of reforms - Clinton's - by using Republican and insurance industry mis-information then it's not really consitant with his Geat Uniter, butter wouldn't melt in my mouth image.
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The Dems' problem is that the respective camp's supporters will tear each other apart by convention time
There's some evidence that broadly speaking supporters in both camps aren't nearly as hostile towards each other's candidate as a lot of internet discussion would suggest. I can't find the polls at the moment but that's what they say. I suspect the vast majority of Dems wont be so short sighted as to change their party vote just because their candidate didn't get selected.
Blaming Obama and his camp for the "Hillary is Divisive" commentary is pretty short sighted - she has been a political figure since 92
She's been around for longer than Obama so has more baggage but one can question whether what the Obama camp is saying the consquences of that are is true or not.
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Well actually there is - assuming that you accept Zogby's polling results as representative of America as a whole...
ah yes the Zogby polling. Always seems to be it bit pro-Obama and a bit wrong.
If Obama is running on the line "vote for me because the Republicans hate Hillary" then that's a pretty weak campaign. I would have thought that's just the sort of candidate the Dems would want.
Maybe there's a little bit in the fact that Hillary is irrationally loathed by some Republicans but maybe there's a little less in Obama's Greater Uniter line. He's not exactly uniting Dem voters.
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cnn has total delegates as Clinton 698, Obama 588.
From what I've read that 110 difference makes things pretty tight. It's borderline for Clinton but Obama is looking to do well in the up-coming primaries.
It will be interesting to see how they both adapt their campaign messages. With Clinton winning the most populous and most cosmopolitan states it might be a bit hard for him to continue the Hillary the great divider line.
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ha, the fate of the world rests with our South Pacific cousins.
AS has 6 delegates - 3 supers and 3 from the caucus. I don't know which way the supers will go.
Does that MSNBC prediction include California - it seems Clinton could win with a reasinably big margin.
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Clinton wins American Samoa. Could be the decider.