Posts by Keir Leslie
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Hard News: This time it's Syria, in reply to Kyle Matthews,
But modern fighters are designed with knowledge of likely enemy counter-measures in mind. Simon mentioned austere runway capacity above, and there's a bunch of stuff like that built into these machines, especially Eastern ones. So while I'm not expecting crazy dogfights over Damascus, I think mistake to over-rate US power, especially when operating pretty much alone.
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Speaker: You ain't from round here, in reply to Rich of Observationz,
I agree. I think that especially in post-quake Christchurch, there's a lot of people who're living in places thy'd never planned to.
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Hard News: Jonesing, in reply to BenWilson,
Wellington Central & Rimutaka are only safe because of good electorate organisation and hard work by the MPs.
[Which is to say, there's some good things about Wellington that aren't just being lucky as to seats.]
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Hard News: Jonesing, in reply to Sacha,
Yay! Which other politicians do we get to call bitches now?
[No, actually, seriously, I’m not just going to joke. Look, let alone the fact Mallard’s been a staunch MP for twenty years, and worked for Labour Governments as well as he could. Look at his record on conscience votes. Homosexual Law Reform. Prostitution Reform. Civil Unions. Marriage equality. That’s a record I’d be proud to have, and it’s a brave record as well.
Mallard’s been a pillar of the liberal left for a long time, and I think it’s disgraceful to call him a “bitch” more concerned with himself than his party or his country on the basis of the Standard’s smears, without any respect for the man’s history of service.]
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I am unsure how significant that difference is --- the sample size is pretty small by that point. I don't think these polls are particularly valuable.
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Hard News: Jonesing, in reply to Deborah,
Mostly, all these polls are measuring is name recognition. (Which is why Robertson’s more than doubled his support in the past two weeks.) And notice how Cunliffe is seen as only just as trustworthy as Robertson — that’s pretty concerning, indicates he has pretty high negatives. Especially given he does badly on "in-touch with New Zealanders".
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As far as I can tell a major enabler of clowns like Jones is Cunliffe backers (like the RMTU & DWU) giving him second preferences. Really, what the fuck. Not super impressed at that.
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Hard News: Jonesing, in reply to Sacha,
Sacha, I’m not sure why you’re insisting on difference being a negative. I think that the diversity of the modern “left” is one of the best things about MMP, and trying to erase that difference into a “left-wing” coalition is quite disrespectful to the Green Party as a separate political organisation. (Apart from anything else, many Greens may not even see themselves as primarily left-wing.)
[I think it's pretty dubious to blame paucity of female candidates on the women of the Labour Party. The patriarchy is a thing, after all.]
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Who do you rate as the four in Spreydon/Heathcote? Four of Allan, Clearwater, Jackson, Scandrett, Potter?
Obviously I’d advise you to vote Clearwater/Potter, as two fine candidates who’ll be fine Councillors…
My read in Riccarton/Wigram is that Buck will take votes off Broughton mostly, and Chen has a very strong chance of getting in. Have actually been favourably impressed with Broughton over the past short while, for all she's a Tory.
The weird shenanigans on the right in Chch local body continue to baffle me. City First, iCitz, the unmarked but clearly Tory Lonsdale, and then Manji and Jackson? All very weird, and (hopefully) vote-splitting!
That story's hilarious!
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Hard News: Jonesing, in reply to Hebe,
Are you in Spreydon Heathcote? Yeah, it will be interesting — what’s your feel?
[ETA: agree lack of any actual politics, but, you know, she appears to be running with the tacit backing of the right, so yeah.]