Posts by James Bremner
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Other factors such as the CSX closure gate not functioning and the maintained condition of the levees were additional negative factors in the performance of the system.
Final Report of the Interagency Performance Evaluation Taskforce
ARRRGGGHHH!!! Is that cited as a major factor or cause? NO!!!An "additional negative factor" does not equal a cause or main reason!!
Question. Based on information in the IPET, if the levees had been "maintained to perfection" would the levees still have failed? For all the numerous major reasons listed in the IPET, YES!!
It doesn't matter how much lipstick you put on a pig, it is still a pig!!
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To add to my last post, most of the $ value of damage to NO was caused by the failures of what referred to in my previous post and the IPET report as "outlet canals", 17th st, London Ave etc.
I am sure there are a range of estimates, all depending on multiple assumptions, for the damage done to New Orleans by the flooding after Katrina. Without researching the issue, the figure that had stuck in my mind previously was $300 billion.
So you have close to $300 billion of damage caused by a meatheaded engineering design error!!
$300 billion, amazing!! By far the most expensive engineering mistake in human history.
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Danielle,
This is torture. Did you note that your Times Pic article about levee maintenance etc. is dated June 8, 2004. That would be 15 months BEFORE Katrina. Since when do articles written 15 months before an event constitute an authorative description of what caused the event?
Please visit the following site: https://ipet.wes.army.mil/
It is the site of the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force, or IPET, whose 150 members come from academia, private industry and the corps. It is THE report on the performance of levee system during Kartina.
Please select Volume 1, The Executive Summary
Please scroll down to page 10 where the "Overarching Findings" can be found. It has it all there over a few pages. It is actually an interesting read. Now I declare (on this subject, levees) , the case is most definitively closed!!
Danielle, now you can laugh out loud, again. At yourself ...
Now I will have to find something similiar to do with FEMA... Might take a day or two to get to that, I am very busy at work, and I have quite a few other posts to reply to as well.
Yes, I am a persistent bugger. I have no problem admitting I am wrong, when I am wrong, but in this case I know for a fact that I am right, so why would I give up? I wouldn't be doing anybody who reads our exchanges any favors if I did!! If I gave up in frustration (at times an appealing thought) they would all believe you, and I would be partially responsible for mis-informing them.
Why am I so confident that I am correct? Well obviously I am here on the ground and I have a vested interested in finding out what happened at all levels of the Kartrina episode. Being on the ground (as opposed to surfing the web) is obviously (to me anyway, but maybe I am strange) a better way to find about something for reasons like this: My neighbor has been an engineering contractor here in New Orleans for 25 or 30 years and was involved in preparing the IPET report and drew my attention to it a while back. I didn't know him very well at all before the storm, but as you would expect, after the storm I have sought him out and have had several most interesting conversations with him where he has laid out what caused the levee failures. He has never mentioned maintenance once. (No, he wasn't involved in the construction or maintenance of the levees with the major design flaws, so he doesn't have an axe to grind or his ass to cover) He was also involved in some of the meetings in years gone by when local experts tried to persuade the Army Corp of Engineers that parts of their designs (in this case for what are described in the IPET report as outlet canals; 17th St, London Ave etc.) were stupid and would fail. Apparently the Corp would just not listen and ended up making mistakes a first year civil engineering student would be able to identify.
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Danielle,
FEMA is not responsible for initial disaster response, in New Orleans or anywhere else. Local and state authorities are. FEMA has 2600 employees in D.C and another 4000 available to call up for disaster response (from FEMA's website). So with this number of people FEMA is supposed to be in charge of first response for every disaster in the US? Think about it, that is just not possible. If there is a huge earthquake in Los Angeles, FEMA is supposed to be in charge of initial response? It would take them 12 to 24 hours minimum just to get on site with any equipment. First response would be in the hands of the LAPD, LAFD and various state authorities, who after all, are on location and know they own patch better than anyone else.
Due to their fundamentally flawed design, the levees were a disaster waiting to happen. They breeched well before they were over topped (17th st, London Ave etc levees). No amount of maintenance could change that. I have never heard or read anywhere that insufficient or incorrect maintenance had any bearing on the levee failures.
I am not ignoring or excusing FEMA's or the Administration’s short comings before or during Katrina, not at all. I am just pointing out that to place the "blame" for Katrina on just those 2 organizations is simply just incorrect, far too simplistic.
People here place the blame on all the various local, state and federal authorities involved to various extents, but if there is one organization that is universally loathed and saddled with the majority of the blame, it is the Army Corp of Engineers. I have heard that the Corp have had to take any identification off their vehicles and are not able to wear any uniforms or identifying clothing least they be abused or harrassed, which is really unfair. The people who made the design mistakes 20 years and more ago are long retired and gone, the current Corp people are working their butts off to fix the problems, the levee breeches are hardly their fault.
There were 50,000 flooded cars in New Orleans after Katrina. A lot of the people who did not evacuate had the means to do so, and chose not to. Bad decision. The idea that those who got stuck in New Orleans after the storm were all poor with no cars is a myth (another one). I have some friends who routinely blow evacuation orders and stayed for Katrina. They had quite a story to tell about how they got out, I expect they will evacuate next time!! When I first got to New Orleans, rather than evacuate we used to buy enough beer to last 3 days and have hurricane parties!! People do some stupid things, we are all human after all. There was an article in the newspaper a few months ago with about 10 or 12 of the most remarkable Katrina survival stories. Every single one of these people had the means to get out of the city and most had friends and relatives begging them to get out. They didn’t, and almost lost their lives as a result of their own bad decision. The City Council was roundly criticized after Katrina for not having any plan to evacuate the elderly, disabled, sick or those without cars or access to transportation. The Council now has a plan to collect them and transport them to an arena in Baton Rouge. Better late than never I suppose.
Anyway Danielle, enough!! I have given it a good shot, but if by now you don’t see that there is a lot more to Katrina that “it was FEMA and Bush’s fault”, you never will!!
You can lead a horse to water …..
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Haven't been back here for a few days, its been a busy place!!
Michael Savidge wrote:
State-sponsored terrorism, neo-colonial foreign policy and outright deceit and hypocrisy are just a few of the reasons the "bad guys" came knocking on your door.
No reasonable person is defending Al Queda's actions (nor the IRA et al over the years) but we can try and understand what drives people to such extremes.
Generally I think you'll find they were very angry. And generally for quite valid reasons.Osama came knocking on Uncle Sam's door because it was a step in his grand plan to reestablish the Caliphate and move on conquer the world for Islam, he has enumerated his grand plan and the reasons for it on numerous occasions.
It is not about neo-colonial foreign policy or any "valid reason". Islam is a religion of conquest and Osama wants to conquer the infidels. Ditto Armidinijad in Iran.
There is no possible way to reason with those guys, they want our submission or our heads. All of this is not only completely justified as far as they are concerned, but commanded by the Koran. I wish it wasn't so, but unfortunately it is.
Our forebears didn't take Hilter seriously, or thought they could talk to him and come to some reasonable agreement. A big mistake that cost 60 million people their lives (total death toll of WWII). I hope we don't make the same mistake in our times.
Clarke
Predictions of next Al Qaeda in days and hours. Very funny. Why don’t you ask Lisa Simpson since she seems to be your guiding philosopher?The question is when we know Al Qaeda are still trying to, and have repeatedly stated their intentions to attack the US, why make it easier for them? We can take some very reasonable steps and make it much harder for them without costing the US much at all in time, effort, and civil rights "given up". In fact I had any civil rightds taken from me since 9/11.
I have every right to expect, infact I demand that the Govt do EVERYTHING in its power to keep me and my family safe. I don’t care how small the chance of being killed by a terrorist act is, if I want to eat myself to death by chocolate that is my choice, to hell with any possibility of having my life or the lives of my loved ones or friends or anyone taken by some crazed rag heads.
Tangentially related point. The more Al Qaeda guys the US kills in Iraq the better. Means we don't have to deal with them on our own turf. In terms of terrorism, away games are a much better option!!
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Michael,
I couldn't agree more with you that the IMF, WB and WTO are far from perfect organizations that have made some huge screw ups (the IMF royally screwed Argentina a few years ago), but you can't tie that to one US Administration or another. Like the UN, in setting up the organizations the intent was good, but the execution in many cases is appalling. It doesn't matter what country they are in, what the language is, what the culture is, by and large bureaucracies are lousy and ineffective and routinely screw up.I am glad you like the US. By writing pro US comments here I am not saying the US is perfect or always right at all. Far from it, it routinely screws up, but so does every other country. Winston Churchill said of Americans that "they always do the right thing, after they have tried all the alternatives!!"
Try imagining the world we would be in today if the US had not existed last century. We would most probably be either be speaking Japanese, German or Russian and be "living" in a brutal fascist or communist dictatorship. I would much rather have the US as the world’s sole super power rather than Putin’s Russia, or China, or Chirac’s France (for sale to the highest bidder on an issue by issue basis!!)
Kyle,
You conveniently focus on Govt. to Govt. aid, and ignore private aid. The problem with Govt. or UN to Govt. or aid is that so much it either corrupts counties and their decision making processes and ends up in a numbered Swiss bank account or gets wasted, or as you point out, gets directed to spending that the donor country wants.If you did a "Total aid money in, vs Actual true benefit achieved" analysis of Govt. aid over the last 50 years, you would get a dismal result. Untold billions of dollars in aid has been given to Africa by so many countries over the last 50 years and the continent is still mostly a basket case. I'd be all for the US giving more Govt. aid if I thought it would work. The evidence suggests otherwise which is why I believe that private aid is a better form and measure of generosity.
US citizens, corporations and organizations such as churches give enormous amounts of aid all around the world, either in money or time and effort that is mostly given directly at the local level in different initiatives that do much more good than Govt. to Govt. aid.
Your stats also ignore the substantial contributions of the US military from time to time, such as in Indonesia after the Tsunami and in Pakistan after the earthquake in Kashmir.
I have never seen an attempt to calculate a total for non Govt. aid, I don't know how you would be able to pull together the data to do it, but in terms of actual real benefit actually delivered to the needy, it has to be a huge number.Danielle,
Your talking point about me quoting Repub talking points is rather tiresome.
Do you honestly think that Blanco would put up details of her screw ups on her website? Good one!!
Trying to pin the entire blame for Katrina on FEMA and the Administration and say the pointing out the size of the storm and state and local failures are “Republican talking points" is just silly.A few points for you to consider:
If FEMA only had to worry about New Orleans and could have concentrated all its resources there, the result of its efforts would probably have been a lot better. Instead, due to the size of Katrina, FEMA had to spread its resources out over a disaster area in LA, MS and AL that was the same size as all of New Zealand. They were stretched way beyod their capacity.
The levees that broke were built 20 to 30 years ago by the Army Corp of Engineers to a badly flawed design. How is that FEMA's or Bush's fault?
The New Orleans Police force collapsed after the storm. The Police Chief Eddie Compass had some kind of nervous breakdown and was AWOL for 2 days.
The LA National Guard’s head quarters, Jackson Barracks was badly flooded and they lost almost all of their equipment, which slowed down their reaction time.
On the Wednesday after the storm the Red Cross had a big convoy of semis loaded with food water etc. ready to go to the Superdome and the Convention Center and help the people. The LA Dept of Homeland Security denied them permission to go into New Orleans because “our plan is to get everyone out of the city, we don’t want anything that will draw more people to these locations.” Brilliant, so just let the people already there suffer.
The Head of the Red Cross’s response in LA described the state of Louisiana’s disaster preparedness as “abysmal”. He would be a good person to pass judgment on the subject.
One of the things that makes New Orleans a fun place to live, is its "let’s eat good food and listen to good music and let le Bontemps Roule”. That attitude doesn’t mix well with hurricanes and disaster preparedness.
There were 4 big hurricanes in Florida in 2004 and FEMA and the Admin did what was needed of them effectively. Why did it go better in Florida? Smaller storms but also Florida’s emergency management is several orders of magnitude better than Louisiana’s.
Many of the people who were at the Superdome and Convention Center had made a conscious decision to stay in New Orleans. By choosing to stay (far too many people always ignore evacuation orders) in a city that is by the coast and below water as a category 5 hurricane was heading in for a potential direct hit, they played Russian Roulette, and they lost. Don’t you think that they contributed to their unfortunate situation just a little? How is their irresponsible decision making anyone else's fault? If the only people that needed to be rescued were the elderly and the sick, it would have been a much smaller and faster job.
Katrina is the first major media event I have been involved. The media did not show the whole story or get what they did show all correct. They were in “Ambulance chaser” mode from very early on and seem to be focused on sensationalism and whom to pin the blame on, even while thousands of people were making heroic efforts to rescue people and help the situation. A good friend of mine works for the same company as the head of the Louisiana National Guard, he and his fellow National Guardsmen worked their butts off non-stop for a week and rescued thousands of people and he feels completely shafted by the media coverage of their efforts, “I hate those bastards, what they put on TV wasn’t even close to what was going on”. His word, not mine. And media reporting is most of the information that you and everyone else who thinks "it is all FEMA's and Bush's Fault" are basing your opinions on. The Head of the Louisiana National Guard who was in the middle of Katrina for a week, or you. Who do you think is more likely to be correct in their understanding of the Katrina?
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Michael,
Global security? The US has spent billions and billions providing a security umbrella for the whole free world for 60 years and is spending billions on a ballistic missile defense system it has said it will share with any friendly or allied Govt.Development? The US Govt and citizens provide more aid and development money than any most other countries combined. USAID spends billions and billions every year. Have you heard of the Gates foundation? Spending billions in aid and development all over the world.
What about the $15 billion Bush is spending on a huge AIDS prevention and support program for Africa?
The US is spending far more than any other country on alternative energy research
I mean, come on.
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Hamish,
As far as giving up rights is concerned, I haven’t giving up any rights that I would not happily give up to help ensure my safety.Why don’t you apply a modicum of commonsense yourself and listen to and consider the thoughts of those that actually live in the US. A few news reports a day, a few websites a day, there is only so much you can learn from that.
As far as New Orleans is concerned, I live here you don't. To be blunt, you don't know shit from clay as far as New Orleans is concerned.
First of all Katrina was one hell of a storm that would have caused absolute chaos wherever it hit. Secondly, the most critical failures were at the City and State government levels, they either fell to pieces completely or froze like a deer in headlights.
Just one example of the kind of shit that was going on here, under US law the US Military need permission from the state Governor before they can deploy within the US. The Army were loaded up and ready to go and in the middle of the biggest disaster in her State's history, when Governor Blanco was asked for permission for the Army to deploy to New Orleans she said, " I need 24 hours to think about that" What a f%$king idiot!! If there is one person who should be hung from a tree for Katrina it is Blanco. She will get booted in 2008.
Sure FEMA screwed up. Everyone did. Katrina was so big and so bad it would have been a gigantic cluster f*&k no matter where or who or what was involved in the rescue efforts. The area declared a disaster zone was the same size as ALL of New Zealand. Mother Nature can be so big and so bad, it was just unf@#king believable. -
Danielle,
The House and Senate committees are very important, and especially ones like the Intelligence Committee, a lot of critical work is done there and of course all manner of sensitive material is reviewed. Having a corruptible fool running such a committee is a terrible idea, especially when the appointment is all about Pelosi putting personal political payback ahead of national security.The religious aspect of all this is so overstated in the international media. Atheists look at anyone who is Christian and recoil, when some of the greatest leaders in history have been Christian, and almost all of the worst tyrants and murderers have been atheists, Hilter, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Hussein etc. Seems to me that if you want to get your knickers in a knot about religious nuts, you should be worried about Armidinajad in Iran.
Michael Savidge,
You wrote "... we want rational, responsible, accountable types". Thank you, my point exactly. This guy Hamilton is none of those things, and neither is anyone who would make such an appointment.Ben,
You wrote “...that being that the people of the World now know that a majority of Americans do not actually agree with the policies and actions of their President."The election did not mean what you seem to think it did.
The 2 big issues that decided the election were Congressional corruption and behavior, and Iraq.
A Repub Congressman (Foley) hitting on a teenage page or a Congressman taking a bribe or pork barreling for their home district have nothing to do with the White House or its polices.
While most Americans are not satisfied with the Administration's performance in Iraq, some people want to pull out, while a good number of others actually want to be more aggressive and are pissed off at things like Moqtada Al Sada not having received a 500 pound JDAM as an early morning "wake up" call.
60% to 70% or Americans agree with the Bush and his National Security polices, like the Patriot Act, NSA and money tracking programs, aggressive interrogation of terrorists (i.e. water boarding) and locking terrorists up in Gitmo until they get a military commission type hearing.
Also gay marriage bans passed in a bunch of states, so this election does not mean that the US is any less conservative than it was before.
As for the US and its prospects, as long as it stays on the offensive and plays this war on terror as an away game, and not a home game, it will do just fine. Its economy is amazingly strong and resilient, good growth, 4.4% unemployment and net household wealth that has increased from about $40 trillion in 2000 to about $54 trillion as of the last quarter. Yes, that is "net" and "T" as in trillion. Not bad, not bad at all. Uncle Sam is not going away anytime soon.
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For all of you out there who think that the Dems are going to be just great and that the US and the world will be safer and better off with them running the Congress, you might want to follow this link ....
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=110906D
It is hard to believe that an appointment like this could even be considered, let alone apparently probably happen (this possibility has been out there for months and has not been repudiated).
Almost all the Dem leadership and the people running all the key House and Senate committees (i.e. those who will have all the power in the Congress) are unreconstructed ultra libs, only people like that could even contemplate of something this stupid.