Posts by Michael Homer
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Speaker: House prices and the "Magic Money", in reply to David Hood,
A tulip is valued at $500. Alice buys Bob's tulip for $1000. Tulips now have a paper value of $1000. Carol sees a good deal and sells her tulip for $1000 to Dan, who sold his own tulip to get the money. Carol uses the money to buy Erin's tulip, and Erin buys Dan's. Four transactions have occurred.
Alice borrowed her $1000. Two other people shortly afterwards didn't buy any tulips because they were now too expensive, so they didn't borrow $500 each.
Total borrowing is the same. Transaction volume has increased. Asset value is doubled.
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Speaker: House prices and the "Magic Money", in reply to David Hood,
No, it won't, because your volume data is obtained by counting transactions. There are two of them here.
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Speaker: House prices and the "Magic Money", in reply to David Hood,
What linger said.
people have to find the money to play those prices
I can swap my tulip bulb for another tulip bulb with a similar valuation without finding any actual money.
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Speaker: House prices and the "Magic Money", in reply to David Hood,
there is no evidence for a dramatic drop off in sales
You're responding to something I just didn't say.
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The argument from volume ("this is based on thousands of sales") doesn't hold, because almost all the transactions can be swaps of assets at their new purported values. You'd need a pretty small number of above-value transactions to set a new benchmark, and you can borrow the same total amount spread across fewer purchases to get that. You can also have a small number of outside transactions with the same effect, or a mixture.
There could be many reasons that behaviour has changed (e.g., initial disproportionate increase in paper value vs income leads to creation of landed class, collective delusion).
It's probably not the most likely explanation, but the analysis doesn't exclude it; it's suggestive only at this point.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to nzlemming,
but there’s a hoop or two to jump through first, and a licencing agreement to accept
The "hoop" is providing an email address and the licence just agreeing not to retain certain data that may have become hidden. It's not an obstacle.
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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland, in reply to BenWilson,
You’re pretty much saying the data isn’t all public, ever, and even what is public is at considerable (at least for a lot of data) cost, which you’re meant to pay to get it?
Property title data, including owners, is public and freely available. The LINZ data service is excellent. To figure out transfers you'd need to compare two snapshots, I think.
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Hard News: This Anzac Day, in reply to izogi,
Cafes have always been allowed to open, as has anywhere else "whose principal business is selling ... prepared or cooked food ready to be eaten immediately in the form in which it is sold".
They don't have to close on Monday either.
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Our concern is [...] access[ing] content without needing any technical know-how
The attitude behind this kind of statement is troubling to me. Why does having or not having "any technical know-how" make a difference?
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Hard News: An unacceptable failure of care, in reply to Alfie,
It's almost verbatim the same article they had a few weeks ago (including that detail). I wondered whether they'd said more than they intended at the time, but seemingly not.