Posts by Julie Fairey
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I got a Circulon wok. It is precious.
Ah, one wok to bring them all and in the darkness bind them? Just what do you have planned for PA in 2009 Russell?!
I got the complete Black Books on dvd which I am quite excited about as I've only seen two episodes so have a lot of fresh enjoyment to come. Wriggly got a ridiculous number of toys and was quite delighted with himself and the day in general, not least the shiny cameras and wrapping paper all around.
I shall try your marvellous Otter story on him but fear his extreme youth may make him a poor critic at this time. We'll get back to you in about a year I suspect ;-)
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I don't get as much time to comment here as I'd like, and the threads tend to get away from me before I have a chance to poke my oar in, but I do enjoy PA, especially the System addition, and I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next. Thanks to Russell for linking The Hand Mirror a few times this year, and also to David Slack for his fantastic contribution to launching Drinking Liberally in Auckland (as well as coming along to the Suffrage Eve Debate and laughing at my jokes).
Safe holidays everyone!
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I've always found Tizard pleasant enough, and certainly she very kindly offered to babysit my son just yesterday. I think Russell's post is a pretty balanced account of Judith's pros and cons, as he does point out that she was probably not best suited to be a senior Minister.
In terms of whether she should go back into the House if she does get in on specials, my personal opinion is that she should probably decline. She'd be expected to stand down at some point during the term, or at the next election, anyway, and it seems likely that many within Labour would want to put a new candidate into Auckland Central in 2011 to try to recapture the seat. They'll want to start that work now really, I imagine.
Politics is cruel sometimes, and sometimes we make it crueller with the way we treat people. Thanks for the timely reminder Russell.
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Key reckons the difference is that Winnie was Foreign Affairs and that should never be outside Cabinet. Whatever.
I had a nasty thought on the way to work this morning:
1. John Key has said he won't have Douglas in Cabinet.
2. Act and National seem to have an in principle agreement that Act with have Ministers outside of Cabinet.
Do you see where I'm going with this?
Although frankly (boom boom) I think it'd be a mistake on Key's part which would take the shine off his honeymoon. I guess we'll know by this time next week...
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On the Elections website, the specials are there on the electorate pages but separated out. I don't know if your comment was directed at me, but I did factor that into my calculations, and think either way Judith was exaggerating to excess, got bad information, or just flubbed her line, that turnout was down in Auckland Central by 12,000!
Hence all the question marks in my comment, I wasn't sure and was seeking clarification. I agree Tizard is way off the mark.
I wonder what will happen if Labour do get another seat on specials which would mean Tizard is back in on the list. Will she take it or will she not? If she doesn't Damian O'Connor is next and the same question applies.
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One thing with the turnout figures - at this stage I assume that the 2005 figures are final finals (ie after specials) whereas the 2008 figures exclude specials? So it might be a little early to be doing any analysis from those figures unless it's a big drop?
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In one of the comment threads at The Standard a reader had done the numbers on the turnout falls in South Auckland and they were significantly down, Auckland Central much less so. I doubt I'll have time to find the thread, sorry, but someone else might have their finger on it.
Also encouraging (in terms of the tolerance thing) was the gay on gay action in Te Atatu - Chris Carter for Labour was re-elected after losing his seat in 1996 after coming out, and Xavier Goldie stood against him for the Greens. Both openly gay, and no issue made about it.
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I agree that the centre-left is far from bereft. As long as Labour's caucus has the discipline to manage the leadership transition quickly and cleanly (and I think after so many years of Clark that they will have that discipline) then the way ahead is not so grey.
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Kaye definitely did do a lot of door knocking, I have no idea how much the Labour team did, but Paul's comment tends to suggest a certain amount of disarray in their campaign. I believe that Kaye, and a lot of other National candidates, took several months off before the election to campaign exclusively, and clearly this has paid off.
It's also worth noting that the List MPs that result from MMP make electorate seats more vulnerable to change, imho. The advantage of being an incumbent is undermined when your opposition can also set up in the electorate, go to all the envelope openings, slowly work their way into the local consciousness as a local MP, but not have the actual responsibilities of being the true electorate MP. Rodney Hide's victory in Epsom in 2005 and Nicky Wagner running Brendon Burns so close in Chch Central this time are good examples of this.
Great post David, I was looking forward to reading your first post-election offering and you didn't disappoint :-)
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