Posts by Andy Fraser
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Peter
Venus is solidly in the goldilocks zone
Most people who try to link Venus with a future earth don’t have any idea of the atmospheric chemistry of either planet.
We have inadvertently engineered a more stable climate than we might otherwise have experienced
I’m the naive one?
Just thinkingMy nihilist tendancies temp me to buy an early 1970s V8. The thought being, the quicker we use up the 'cheap' fuel the quicker renewables will come on board.
So long as Hummers and their ilk are still running around in the US we’ll get there plenty quick. REAL action would be if we could replace all vehicles in the USA with Corrollas, fleet mileage instantly to 35+mph, and as Kiwi’s need to lead this change we’d be restricted to Suzuki Altos for the 1st car and bicycles thereafter.
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Russell, a bit bitchy? hard to get more bitchy than feeling cheered about the death of someone whose views differ from your own.
I believe in climate change. Clearly from the reliable long term temperature records avaliable there are at least local and regional temperature rises. We have the evidence of over 80 years of glacial retreat.
Humans have at least some responsibility beyond the radiative effects of CO2, e.g land use change and deforestation.
The well being of Earth and our future generations depends on many things - our ability to feed a growing population, sustainablitly of resources in general and changing mindless consumerism habits in particular, and the threat of Nation's military responses to coming shortages. In my bleak moments I don't hold out much hope for any of the above. And I didn't even include the nigh impossible task of keeping our planet's climate 'stable'. -
Carol, Russell, Sam...
MBH98 and MBH99 are debunked. It would take a person of considerable thick skin to defend them. Other hockey stick reconstructions since are full of problems. Any study using tree ring temperature proxies are riddled with problems, as the use of trees as temperature proxies is increasingly questioned.
The temperature records over the last 100 odd years are a shambles.As for the emails - unlike you Russell the more I read the less comfortable I get.
I don't condone poor science, bullying or misrepresentation of facts from any of the skeptics and I didn't think I'd ever see it from the AGW proponents. But the following, in their own wors, leave me deeply worried where we are. Irrespective of 'context'._______________________________
* Phil Jones writes to University of Hull to try to stop sceptic Sonia Boehmer Christiansen using her Hull affiliation. Graham F Haughton of Hull University says its easier to push greenery there now SB-C has retired.(1256765544)* Michael Mann discusses how to destroy a journal that has published sceptic papers.(1047388489)
* Tim Osborn discusses how data are truncated to stop an apparent cooling trend showing up in the results (0939154709). Analysis of impact here. Wow!
* Phil Jones describes the death of sceptic, John Daly, as “cheering news”.
* Phil Jones encourages colleagues to delete information subject to FoI request.(1212063122)
* Phil Jones says he has use Mann’s “Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series”…to hide the decline”. Real Climate says “hiding” was an unfortunate turn of phrase.(0942777075)
* Letter to The Times from climate scientists was drafted with the help of Greenpeace.(0872202064)
* Mann thinks he will contact BBC’s Richard Black to find out why another BBC journalist was allowed to publish a vaguely sceptical article.(1255352257)
* Kevin Trenberth says they can’t account for the lack of recent warming and that it is a travesty that they can’t.(1255352257)
* Tom Wigley says that Lindzen and Choi’s paper is crap.(1257532857)
* Tom Wigley says that von Storch is partly to blame for sceptic papers getting published at Climate Research. Says he encourages the publication of crap science. Says they should tell publisher that the journal is being used for misinformation. Says that whether this is true or not doesn’t matter. Says they need to get editorial board to resign. Says they need to get rid of von Storch too. (1051190249)
* Ben Santer says (presumably jokingly!) he’s “tempted, very tempted, to beat the crap” out of sceptic Pat Michaels. (1255100876)
* Mann tells Jones that it would be nice to ‘”contain” the putative Medieval Warm Period’. (1054736277)
* Tom Wigley tells Jones that the land warming since 1980 has been twice the ocean warming and that this might be used by sceptics as evidence for urban heat islands.(1257546975)
* Tom Wigley say that Keith Briffa has got himself into a mess over the Yamal chronology (although also says it’s insignificant. Wonders how Briffa explains McIntyre’s sensitivity test on Yamal and how he explains the use of a less-well replicated chronology over a better one. Wonders if he can. Says data withholding issue is hot potato, since many “good” scientists condemn it.(1254756944)
* Briffa is funding Russian dendro Shiyatov, who asks him to send money to personal bank account so as to avoid tax, thereby retaining money for research.(0826209667)
* Kevin Trenberth says climatologists are nowhere near knowing where the energy goes or what the effect of clouds is. Says nowhere balancing the energy budget. Geoengineering is not possible.(1255523796)
* Mann discusses tactics for screening and delaying postings at Real Climate.(1139521913)
* Tom Wigley discusses how to deal with the advent of FoI law in UK. Jones says use IPR argument to hold onto code. Says data is covered by agreements with outsiders and that CRU will be “hiding behind them”.(1106338806)
* Overpeck has no recollection of saying that he wanted to “get rid of the Medieval Warm Period”. Thinks he may have been quoted out of context.(1206628118)
* Mann launches RealClimate to the scientific community.(1102687002)
* Santer complaining about FoI requests from McIntyre. Says he expects support of Lawrence Livermore Lab management. Jones says that once support staff at CRU realised the kind of people the scientists were dealing with they became very supportive. Says the VC [vice chancellor] knows what is going on (in one case).(1228330629)
* Rob Wilson concerned about upsetting Mann in a manuscript. Says he needs to word things diplomatically.(1140554230)
* Briffa says he is sick to death of Mann claiming his reconstruction is tropical because it has a few poorly temp sensitive tropical proxies. Says he should regress these against something else like the “increasing trend of self-opinionated verbiage” he produces. Ed Cook agrees with problems.(1024334440)
* Overpeck tells Team to write emails as if they would be made public. Discussion of what to do with McIntyre finding an error in Kaufman paper. Kaufman’s admits error and wants to correct. Appears interested in Climate Audit findings.(1252164302)
* Jones calls Pielke Snr a prat.(1233249393)
* Santer says he will no longer publish in Royal Met Soc journals if they enforce intermediate data being made available. Jones has complained to head of Royal Met Soc about new editor of Weather [why?data?] and has threatened to resign from RMS.(1237496573)
* Reaction to McIntyre’s 2005 paper in GRL. Mann has challenged GRL editor-in-chief over the publication. Mann is concerned about the connections of the paper’s editor James Saiers with U Virginia [does he mean Pat Michaels?]. Tom Wigley says that if Saiers is a sceptic they should go through official GRL channels to get him ousted. (1106322460) [Note to readers - Saiers was subsequently ousted]
* Later on Mann refers to the leak at GRL being plugged.(1132094873)
* Jones says he’s found a way around releasing AR4 review comments to David Holland.(1210367056)
* Wigley says Keenan’s fraud accusation against Wang is correct. (1188557698)
* Jones calls for Wahl and Ammann to try to change the received date on their alleged refutation of McIntyre [presumably so it can get into AR4](1189722851)
* Mann tells Jones that he is on board and that they are working towards a common goal.(0926010576)
* Mann sends calibration residuals for MBH99 to Osborn. Says they are pretty red, and that they shouldn’t be passed on to others, this being the kind of dirty laundry they don’t want in the hands of those who might distort it.(1059664704)
* Prior to AR3 Briffa talks of pressure to produce a tidy picture of “apparent unprecedented warming in a thousand years or more in the proxy data”. [This appears to be the politics leading the science] Briffa says it was just as warm a thousand years ago.(0938018124)
* Jones says that UK climate organisations are coordinating themselves to resist FoI. They got advice from the Information Commissioner [!](1219239172)
* Mann tells Revkin that McIntyre is not to be trusted.(1254259645)
* Revkin quotes von Storch as saying it is time to toss the Hockey Stick . This back in 2004.(1096382684)
* Funkhouser says he’s pulled every trick up his sleeve to milk his Kyrgistan series. Doesn’t think it’s productive to juggle the chronology statistics any more than he has.(0843161829)
* Wigley discusses fixing an issue with sea surface temperatures in the context of making the results look both warmer but still plausible. (1254108338)
* Jones says he and Kevin will keep some papers out of the next IPCC report.(1089318616)
* Tom Wigley tells Mann that a figure Schmidt put together to refute Monckton is deceptive and that the match it shows of instrumental to model predictions is a fluke. Says there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model output by authors and IPCC.(1255553034)
* Grant Foster putting together a critical comment on a sceptic paper. Asks for help for names of possible reviewers. Jones replies with a list of people, telling Foster they know what to say about the paper and the comment without any prompting.(1249503274)
* David Parker discussing the possibility of changing the reference period for global temperature index. Thinks this shouldn’t be done because it confuses people and because it will make things look less warm.(1105019698)
* Briffa discusses an sceptic article review with Ed Cook. Says that confidentially he needs to put together a case to reject it (1054756929)
* Ben Santer, referring to McIntyre says he hopes Mr “I’m not entirely there in the head” will not be at the AGU.(1233249393)
* Jones tells Mann that he is sending station data. Says that if McIntyre requests it under FoI he will delete it rather than hand it over. Says he will hide behind data protection laws. Says Rutherford screwed up big time by creating an FTP directory for Osborn. Says Wigley worried he will have to release his model code. Also discuss AR4 draft. Mann says paleoclimate chapter will be contentious but that the author team has the right personalities to deal with sceptics.(1107454306)
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Craig
Probably, but as I've said I've got no problems with the Goff/Trotter/Pagani school continuing down the merry road to utter irrelevance
not what I said.. the miss is as good as a mile..but if misquoting gets you off, I can't stop you
Carol
Actually that's rubbish, Andy. Where's the evidence that climate scientists have been falsifying data on a grand scale?
We could start with the hockey stick – and carry on with the emails. But if you happy with falsifying on LESS the a grand scale, only a small scale – then I’m wasting my time discussing the subject with you.
Russell
The only way you would create something like the Oregon Petition is if your intention was to deceive
So, the debunked ‘hockey stick’ was just an error? And the matters revealed in these emails are just ‘oversights’?
When did you discard the facility of critical thinking?
This is just so GW Bush. ‘You are with us, or you are against us’. There is absolutely no position a person with an open mind can take, and from seemingly intelligent rational people I find it very hard to understand.
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Steve
“Honest scientists ??
The emails show differently.”Russell
“That's a great piece. I hadn't realised just how, um, manufactured the so-called "Oregon
Petition" was. You can't be that deceitful by accident: you do it very deliberately.”I think there is a lot of truth in both statements. The irony is Russell that your last sentence supports what Steve said.
It does strike me that both sides are guilty of tampering with the evidence.
As for Goff, Trotter, et al - am I the only person who feels comfortable with both Clark and Goff ?
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A fool and his money are soon parted.
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Matthew Poole @ 12:41
I do find it obscene that there's an untaxable allowance available to Ministers that is greater than the median national income, and that even backbench MPs can claim one that's barely less than the minimum wage ($12.5*40*52=$26,000, against a standard MP's allowance of $24,500).
Nail, head.
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Max @ 11:28
I was wondering about the sincerity of Bill English, not the accuracy of that quote
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'I'm just trying to keep my family together'.
If thats actually true, we'll either see his family split apart, or conclude he can manage to live off his ministerial salary.
I'm waiting for any comment from Mr Perkbuster too.
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I agree with Jeremey Eade @ 1205pm
Lets give some credit to the party and voters, National only won by imitation.
Goff needs to start setting the record straight on the last Labour government .The record in the context of the array governments that proceeded them since 1975 is was pretty fucking impressive on many fronts including 9 years of economic growth.
You were the natural party of government for nearly a decade , a legacy impressive enough to be copied by national party strategists in that this first term National Government knows that the famed mainstream voter liked Clarks sense of fairness enough for 3 succesisve election victories.