Posts by Russell Brown
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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread, in reply to Craig Ranapia,
For me, the real interest is going to be down-ticket. Has Todd ‘Legitimate Rape’ Aiken thrown a race that should never have been competitive in the first place? We shall see.
I did see a comment yesterday declaring that the Republicans have bungled as many as five Senate races: Akin, Mourdock, can't recall the others ...
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And I'm presuming we'll all be able to watch The Daily Show's live coverage, from 5pm NZ time.
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A WaPo story on when we'll all know about Ohio.
Polls there close at 7.30pm EST -- ie: 1.30pm our time.
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I've kicked off an election-day thread.
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Local TV seems to be making a real effort this time – the time zones are in our favour.
And One News, with an extremely annoying Jack Tame video. I think his work, like that of all the NZ correspondents, has been pretty good, but he needed a producer to tell him to tone it down on that video.
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Meanwhile, video of a voting machine that keeps flipping votes from Obama to Romney.
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I'm kinda transfixed by the Chris Christie thing today. New Jersey's Republican governor, who has attended 100+ Springsteen shows but has never been acknowledged by The Boss, on account of his politics, got to meet Bruce after Sunday night's fundraising concert -- and got a hug. The next day Obama calls him and puts Springsteen on the line.
Christie, no doubt shattered by the effort of trying to put his smashed-up state back together, is genuinely moved. The wingnut-o-sphere proceeds to cover him in pure hate for being a human being.
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Uh-oh.
Risky, "experimental" software added to voting machines in Ohio at the eleventh hour.
Even if this isn't an attempt to compromise the machines, it's still clearly crazy and sloppy and stupid. They need someone to come in and run their elections properly for them.
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Hard News: The Watching World, in reply to Paul Williams,
Hilary, I’ve heard similar things said including by one of my colleagues. She’s able to vote and wants to vote for Obama but has described endless barriers she’s encountered to register since being made to register as a Democrat.
Right now, in Florida. The Nation has stories on people waiting seven hours to vote.
This is happening not because of a natural disaster or breakdown in machinery. It is happening by partisan design. Alarmed by the strong Democratic turnout in early voting in 2008, Republican lawmakers, including Governor Rick Scott, reduced the number of early voting days from 14 to eight. When the restrictions were challenged in federal court under the Voting Rights Act, a three-judge panel said they would have a discriminatory impact upon minority voters. But only five of the state's 67 counties are covered by the federal civil rights law.
In one case, Tea Party activists have managed to prevent the provision of water to people standing in line by claiming it's a form of treating.
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Awesome. Silver has started to run the numbers on the pundits. FRom his Twitter stream:
Dick Morris says Romney will win 325 electoral votes. 538 model puts chances of Romney winning 325+ EVs at 1.1%.
And:
Jim Cramer says Obama will win 440 electoral votes. 538 model puts chances of this at: 0.004% (n.b. we use heavy-tailed distributions)
How on earth does Cramer still have a job?