Posts by Rich of Observationz
-
For an example of what might have happened last election under STV, see this (based on the University of Auckland's simulator) see:
-
Legal Beagle: Now it's up to you, in reply to George Darroch,
Assuming that we did have multi-member seats, STV inherently creates a “threshold” of (for a party with uniform national support),:
1 / (members_per_electorate + 1)So 4 member electorates would have an implied 20% threshold.
That’s for parties with uniform support. If a party had all their support in one electorate (Maori or otherwise) they could get in with
1 / (number_electorates * (members_per_electorate + 1))So a party running in one 4 member electorate out of 30 could get in with 0.66% support.
That’s an imbalance right away, before you look at horse-trading with preferences and how-to-vote cards, etc.
[ It would be possible to have a hybrid MMP/STV system with preferential voting in multi-member electorates, and list MPs to iron out any disproportionality. That isn’t on offer. Nor is any form of list-only system ].
[ And to achieve the current threshold of 5% for a party with uniform support, you’d need to have maybe 6 electorates with 19 members ].
-
the potential for people who vote for retention of MMP in Q1 to skip Q2 all together, which could skew the results of that part of the referendum away from a proportional system
*None* of the options given in Q2 are proportional, except by chance (all of them *may* produce a proportional result, but they aren't guaranteed or even expected to).
I'd recommend voting tactically for the least attractive and popular of the Q2 options (on present polling, SM), so that in any run-off referendum, MMP would have the best chance of prevailing.
-
Hard News: Auckland, so much enormity to…, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,
catering to what is affordable
Less meat is better than cheap meat, but try telling that to NZers who've been indoctrinated with the idea that meat five times a week is a minimum healthy diet. Often by athletes, who have utterly different nutrition needs from people.
-
Hard News: Auckland, so much enormity to…, in reply to Bart Janssen,
It was quite good when I didn't live here and often stayed there on business.
It's been on the market for the last few years, I understand.
(But also, a well run hotel should have maybe 80% occupancy, right. If they don't jack their prices for major events, then they'd only get a maximum 20% revenue boost - which isn't really the promised bonanza. We were hoping to rent our spare room for $150+ a night, but got no takers.
I reckon F1 would get us more big-spending 'illmans. We could have the track going round the ferry ramps, bus tunnel and Oriental Bay for extra crash action).
-
Hard News: Auckland, so much enormity to…, in reply to Paul Williams,
The DIA will do an expedited passport for a fee. That seems fair enough, rather than trying to corrupt a politician to get one.
-
I'm not sure Key's actually ever been to a Warriors game before
I had this idea for a business as I saw all the pollies doing sport tweets over the weekend. The idea would be that politicians who don't give a shit about sports but want to be down with the people can subscribe, supply social network credentials and get a flow of tweets written for them during major games, while they sit with their feet up reading John Stuart Mill/Hager/Trollope.
Guaranteed impartial, confidential service. Optional pre-game focus grouping to determine whether the electors of Haltemprice South would appreciate their MP supporting Namiba or Tonga.
-
I think we might have blown the "public fun" budget for the next 20 or 30 years.
All those dollars that were going to flow into the hospo industry - not so much.
Maybe we should lobby the IRB to allocate world cups in strict alphabetical rotation amongst rugby-playing nations. Then we'd get it every 80 years, and wouldn't have to spend millions or change our laws.
-
You'll need to explain who Rick Perry is. I'm guessing he might be Katy's brother?
(I snogged a bloke?)
-
Sorry to snark, BTW. I just get a bit irritable when people persist in this romantic illusion that there's an old lady in a castle who can sort out our governments if they get too out of hand...