Posts by Rich of Observationz

  • Hard News: Science: it's complicated,

    It's obviously about control, not safety.

    Perhaps someone could clarify the exact qualifications for a worker to be allowed into the red zone, but I would suspect that unskilled labourers hired from temp agencies are allowed in after a safety briefing and the correct gear (hard hat, boots, etc). It would be quite feasible for those wanting access to go off to tech and get construction safety training that would put them on a par with these employees.

    The reason why not has to do with a narrative by which disaster can only be dealt with in a top-down manner, with ordinary citizens expected to give due obesiance to authority.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    Yeah someone must have a spreadsheet that calculates ...

    You've got elasticity of demand, adaptation to higher prices, effect of fiscal and interest rate settings, etc, to factor in. I think if you asked ten economists you'd get eleven answers.

    You could probably get a reasonable approximation to what happens to the CPI *immediately* when petrol prices increase, but beyond that it gets fuzzier and more theoretical.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    if the NZ dollar drops to say 75 US cents what will happen to our fuel prices?

    In 2000, bulk gasoline was about 64% of pump petrol costs. You've also got the refinery mark up in there (something amusingly called the crack spread) - I'm guessing maybe 50% of todays pump price is crude,.

    Which means that if the oil price stayed the same and the NZ dollar dropped by 20%, the price of petrol would rise around 10%. It might be a bit less than that, given that the oil price probably factors in the rate between USD and other world currencies.

    How much that affects inflation in the short and medium term is hard to judge. You need an econometrician.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Field Theory: All Blacks v South Africa…,

    I dunno, being able to napalm the other team and/or pick them off with drone launched Hellfire missiles might be just the job for a tricky game. Show me where in the rules it says you can't?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…,

    A $12k coffee machine.

    If you had one of those for five years, at 6% interest and assuming a cost per cup for beans and milk of $1 a time, then you'd break even at just over two cups day. (Versus shop coffee at $4).

    I haven't factored in maintenance, or the cost of the piercings, tats and whippit abuse needed to achieve moderate competence as a barista, or even solicita.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…,

    Actually, LA and Anchorage are right under the great circle for Bejing-Santiago (which is probably also the real-world cheapest route). For Bejing-Rio, you'd be looking at Rome, maybe.

    (Great circles often surprise).

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…, in reply to giovanni tiso,

    encircled by an unforgiving desert

    North Shore, Howick, Flatbush, Manurewa. Got nothing on a bit of sand..

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…, in reply to James Littlewood*,

    That's actually a good idea, if you ignore the fact that we're screwing the rest of the world out of legitimate tax revenues. That, and leakage into the domestic tax system (by enabling locals to pay no tax). And inflation. And filling the country with rich scum.

    But it'd be good for contract rates in IT.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…, in reply to George Darroch,

    Except that it isn't on the way, really. (Rio-Bejing = 25% further, Santiago-Singapore = 10% further).

    Do we really want to encourage wasteful air travel in this fashion? (I think it's terrible that it often works out cheaper to backtrack via Sydney when off to the US, even).

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

  • Hard News: An open thread while I'm down…, in reply to Russell Brown,

    “Dubai of the Pacific”

    Corruption, torture, slave labour? What's not to like?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report

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