Posts by Sacha
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Richard Grevers,
They're already just below in tv projections, but finely poised - would need some combination of John Banks, Peter Dunne and the Maori Party's 3 remaining seats.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to Russell Brown,
Word of big turnouts in South Auckland
Wonder if that's helping NZ First this time? Could be a contributor to Conservative vote too I guess. Tentatively.
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My bad. How Ray Miller would have told me off for that one.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to BenWilson,
Is that advance votes only, though?
Yes. Oops. Back to the passive consumption of results for me.
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One of the most important results. Looks like MMP wins with 95% counted.
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Hard News: Democracy Night, in reply to TracyMac,
Welcome. Toby has done outstanding work there all campaign, from dawn til dusk.
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About early results skew, on the Listener's live blog.
7.40pm: The advance votes are 90% counted. Let’s do some sums. As Antony Green of the ABC says in his blog votes cast early tend to favour National. In 2008 the advance vote for National was 49.15% but the final result 44.93%, while Labour rose from an advance vote of 30.35% to 34.34%.
This time around, the advance counts (at 90%) are: National 49.7%, Labour 26.9% – on the above calculation that would work out to, roughly, National 45%, Labour 30.5% – a better result for Labour than many predicted – and would leave National needing partners.
The rest of the advance count: Greens 9.6%, NZ First 6.8%, Maori 1.3%, Mana 1.1%, Act 1.2%, United Future 0.6%.
At this rate, Winston Peters is returning to parliament as one of eight NZ First MPs.
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Bare bones electorate results.
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Hard News: Last Words, in reply to Kracklite,
would vote for her unreservedly if she was my electorate candidate
unless your (FPP) electorate vote helped put a candidate you really disliked in front
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Hard News: Last Words, in reply to Yamis,
party at yours, Bueller :)