Posts by Sacha
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About the source of the 10,000 figure (my bolding):
The preliminary figure of around 10,000 was not based on the Civil Defence's process of red stickering houses, Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee said.
He said the preliminary figure was provided by the Earthquake Commission's geotechnical engineers in the first few days after the quake.
Brownlee said a red sticker on a house meant a house was "presently uninhabitable" and that some houses with a red sticker are likely to be repaired.
But Christchurch mayor Bob Parker today responded to Key's comments, saying it was speculation to suggest large areas of land will have to be abandoned because of earthquake damage.
Parker told reporters there may well be 10,000 houses that will need to be rebuilt but geotechnical information is needed before decisions can be made.
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Light relief from the 'stroking a grudge' file. Our old friend Mr Siataga from his exile at The Standard manages to make this topic all about our host's todger. What a silly little fella.
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Hard News: What Now?, in reply to Neil Morrison,
To some extent the facts don't matter to journos aware of that power struggle. We'll probably see other oblique stories about it too.
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Seems fair for the government to be trying to set general public expectations about the scale of this disaster. And you'd expect the local council to be continuing to cheerlead for its area.
However I suspect the tussle over numbers is more a reflection of the broader power struggle between central (Brownlee et al) and local (Parker) government over who calls the shots - and who gets to dole out the pork.
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Hard News: What Now?, in reply to Sacha,
More questioning of Key's numbers.
Official figures released today by Civil Defence tag the number of homes condemned to date in Christchurch at 2190 - about 7800 shy of John Key's estimate of 10,000 - causing some to question where the Prime Minister's office is getting its information.
Although hundreds, if not thousands more houses could be red-stickered (signaling their destruction) as inspectors continue the arduous assessment process in Christchurch, Civil Defence staff were scratching their heads yesterday following Key's update on the earthquake situation.
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Key told reporters Monday that in addition to the 10,000 homes doomed for destruction a further 100,000 were damaged.
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Civil Defence media relations said those figures were inconsistent with their own records as only 70,000 of the 190,000 or so houses in Christchurch have so far been inspected.
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Hard News: About Arie, in reply to Andre Alessi,
photographic evidence of what look like injuries from a beating
or falling hard against a solid object, to be fair
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Is it possible that rapid demolition of red-stickered properties may be incentivised by contractors getting salvage rights over valuable contents? (h/t Cheryl Bernstein)
In the CBD owners have of course been unable to get independent experts in but decisions are being made to demolish simply because buildings have been red-stickered. The red sticker means they are unsafe to enter as it stands – it should not mean automatic demolition. It involves no judgement as to whether the building could be restored if appropriate shoring up took place. At present owners are being given 24 hours notice that a building is going to be demolished with little possibility of influencing the decision and no chance to recover possessions.
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Another reason behind the demolition of red-stickered buildings is that the demolition companies apparently get the materials and contents as salvage – so we have been informed by an antique shop owner who defied the red stickers (in a suburban area) in order to recover stock ahead of the demolition crews.I will try to get more details to you tomorrow, but it is clear that there are owners who want to restore their buildings but are simply being told they have to come down and that is that.
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Some disunity in communication - Parker says abandoning damaged suburbs is only "speculation" by Key.
Parker told reporters there may well be 10,000 houses that will need to be rebuilt but geotechnical information is needed before decisions can be made about land remediation.
"But with regard to land remediation and which pieces of land will or may not be rebuilt - and they may all be able to be built on - the simple fact of the matter is anything else until we get that geotechnic information is really speculation and can be very alarming," he said.
"So I want you to relax. When we've got that information those in the affected areas will be the first to know," Parker said.
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Commentor at DimPost makes forceful defense of Brownlee:
Like hell he’s wrong. He’s stuck a big fat finger of realism into the Christchurch eye and rubbed it around a bit. Probably every building in the city was subject to G forces way in excess of the design codes.
So wham, 10,000 houses have to be demolished. Bam, several suburbs will probably have to be relocated. Pow, 100,000 homes damaged. Kapow, 60,000 have fled the city and oh yeah.. several hundred old buildings have to come down to make the inner city safe and encourage people to eventually venture back in there again.
The figures are simply stupendous.. 10,000s home and 30-40,000 people displaced in an instant.. we’ve never come close to that impact in our history! Brownlee is simply the first of many to come to the realisation that Chch is in grave peril of a future unless it gets its priorities right and deals harshly with the puling fools clinging to genteel decay. Christchurch is finished as a major town if it places its past ahead of its future.
JC
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Hard News: About Arie, in reply to Craig Young,
aren't assaults on someone with Aspergers classified as hate crimes
The assault would have to be motivated by knowing that about the victim - unlikely to apply here.