Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: There is History

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  • Joe Wylie,

    Yes, except... no. It's not what happened at all.

    Ah . . . so, for example, "Nick Smith stricken with suspected Coughing Pig Death" isn't alarmist nonsense. I stand corrected.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Like Goldacre said - you'll always find a quota of vaudeville in the media. But that doesn't mean there was no story or that it was a beat-up. And in general I've found the coverage a lot more sane and balanced than the coverage of most other things - although it has to be said I don't watch the news on the telly. But now I'm beginning to sound like a broken record so I'm going to leave it there.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie,

    And in general I've found the coverage a lot more sane and balanced than the coverage of most other things -

    When 'most other things' consists of 'Editor's picks' such as Linsey Lohan's latest tattoo, well naturally. The 'element of vaudeville' you describe has been centre stage for some time now.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Perhaps, but it seems that a lot of people have taken the vaudeville as a demonstration that it was a beat up. That's what gets me really. (I know, I said I was going to leave it there.)

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    If somebody has been crying wolf it's the WHO, and a bunch of the world's leading virologists, and I doubt they did that either.

    If not crying wolf I can't help feeling that they are playing to this as much as anyone. The governmental pressure, coming from public panic must be immense.

    Then we get things like this:

    THE World Health Organisation is poised to declare a global swine flu pandemic, despite suggestions by scientists that the H1N1 virus may be no more dangerous than the average seasonal flu and confidence in Mexico that the outbreak is easing.

    So they push the panic levels wee bit higher, just in case. Because further down that same page we are told:

    "This might not be any more virulent than normal seasonal flu infections. We feel reassured that if this develops into a pandemic, it might not be a particularly severe one," Mr Hay said.

    Scientists are encouraged by analyses of the DNA sequence of the virus, which has found it lacks the traits that led to the death of nearly 50 million people in the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak.

    A senior consultant who has been treating swine flu victims said: "The way they are talking, you would think our culture is collapsing. This time last week, we were all incredibly worried because the reports from Mexico were that hospitals were full and people were dying all over the place. Actually, it doesn't seem to be that severe. The symptoms are unpleasant -- fevers, shivering, aches -- but no worse than normal seasonal flu."

    WHO medical health officer Nikki Shindo said the biggest concern was that the virus could mutate and become resistant to Tamiflu. The US Centres for Disease Control in Atlanta, Georgia, says 98 per cent of existing H1 flu strains were resistant to Tamiflu in the last flu season.

    So it's no worse than the flu we've all learned to live with, but we''ll keep on ramping it anyway. It might mutate (or it might not). And we need to be vigilant. Agreed.

    Myself, I'd like to see how it got this far without the evidence to support the conclusions that seemed to have been drawn by people we trust to know better. Surely someone should've, given the dire over projections of the past few year from WHO and their directors, asked for a little more than what we now know were clearly inconclusive results from Mexico.

    Oh, and in 1918 we flew in these and if we needed surgery this is where (a very fortunate few) would've found ourselves. Even in much of the third world medical science has advanced quite somewhat over the best part of a century ago.

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    The 'element of vaudeville' you describe has been centre stage for some time now.

    But nowhere more than with Indonesia's Health minister whose statements here are pretty firm evidence that, in this country at least, intellect is not a prerequisite for higher office.

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Experts warned the virus could mutate and come back with a vengeance.

    As a person who gets pissed off the media headlining with uninformed people with no qualifications all the time, it'd be a little hypocritical for me to bitch about them giving lots of space to "people who have qualifications and jobs that mean they allowed to say what they want in this field".

    It takes the focus one step further away from the real problems facing people day to day in the developing and still to be developing world.

    Yes. It's also interesting to note that we're not especially concerned with how its affecting Mexico, our prime concern is once it crosses into the 1st world and starts to affect us. Poorer countries can have all their diseases, as long as they keep them to themselves.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Poorer countries can have all their diseases, as long as they keep them to themselves.

    And they keep sending the pork to us. I'm doing some reading on the food conglomerate behind those mega pig farms and it's... juicy stuff.

    Happened with Argentina too, didn't it? The West obsessed about the pandemic of defaulting bonds, but I didn't hear too much concern for the Argentineans themselves.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie,

    Those cuuute little piglets.

    Hogwash. Those cuties grow up to resemble some mediaeval concept of the antichrist. Left unsupervised they'll cheerfully devour their arguably cuter nominal cousins, the guinea pigs.

    Swine fever at a Japanese petting zoo:

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie,

    Those cuuute little piglets.

    Hogwash. Those cuties grow up to resemble some mediaeval concept of the antichrist. Left unsupervised they'll cheerfully devour their arguably cuter nominal cousins, the guinea pigs.

    Swine fever at a Japanese petting zoo:

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen,

    The joy of hindsight

    Myself, I'd like to see how it got this far without the evidence to support the conclusions that seemed to have been drawn by people we trust to know better.

    Two weeks ago there was no way to know this wasn't deadly serious. And reports from Mexico while confused suggest it indeed was serious. Please don't beat these guys with your hindsight.

    Surely someone should've, given the dire over projections of the past few year from WHO and their directors, asked for a little more than what we now know were clearly inconclusive results from Mexico.

    There is no time for that with flu. You ask and investigate BUT at the same time you must prepare for the worst.

    Consider it like a Tsunami warning, you detect the earthquake and send a Tsunami warning immediately, which you can later retract after investigation. Any other action is foolish.

    Oh, and in 1918 we flew in these and if we needed surgery this is where (a very fortunate few) would've found ourselves. Even in much of the third world medical science has advanced quite somewhat over the best part of a century ago.

    Yes you are right but it has NOTHING to do with the lethality of cytokine storms which is what killed in 1918.

    Remember this from 2006

    Our best medicine can just, sometimes, maybe keep someone alive through a cytokine storm but it takes luck and the absolute best ICU. 1918 flu is just as lethal now as it was back in 1918, our current medicine cannot help much at all and a pandemic of 1918 strain would have a very similar death rate. That's why they were shitting bricks.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4461 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    The joy of hindsight

    It has nothing whatsoever to do with hindsight. There were quite a number of educated voices urging caution from day one, but they were largely ignored. When it was clear within a day or so that the claims coming out of Mexico were suspect and perhaps rather overstated, still the clamour continued for the best part of two weeks with a snowball effect of increasing insanity. And WHO played an unfortunate role in that and, looking at that link I posted, still seem unable to let it go.

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Meanwhile, first cases of the virus spreading from humans to pigs, in Canada. Not that the eminent epidemiologists and virologists on this thread should feel any concern, naturally.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    Meanwhile, first cases of the virus spreading from humans to pigs, in Canada. Not that the eminent epidemiologists and virologists on this thread should feel any concern, naturally.

    it seems the eminent epidemiologists and virologists anywhere seem rather unconcerned about this, so I'm not sure why we should be winding ourselves up again, although the latter is not unlikely given recent events.

    Apparently it's rather common.

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    Eminent person speaks to the public on April 26 when there were already question marks over what was coming out of Mexico:

    The death toll of the H1N1 virus could reach 50million – as high as the Spanish Flu of 1918, according to John McCauley, of the National Institute For Medical Research.

    He claimed the virus – a contagious respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza – is much more similar to the Spanish Flu than the feared H5N1 bird flu.

    'It could be a similar death rate to back in 1918,' he said.

    ohh, now that's not going to cause a mild panic, is it?

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Apparently it's rather common.

    Apparently, I give up.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    ohh, now that's not going to cause a mild panic, is it?

    McCauley was guilty of some extremely dramatic forecasts if bird flu caught on, too:

    "There's no reason to say the virus will not continue to evolve so that it can transmit directly from one person to another. There's a realistic chance that could happen.

    "If it does - if the virus becomes adapted to man and can transmit efficiently - there'll be no point in selling a vaccine. You might as well give it away at that stage, because money would be meaningless. The world order would change."

    Woah. Dude ...

    But that doesn't invalidate the central point that risk escalates dramatically when novel viruses jump species. Your best bet is to contain the virus as quickly as possible, because the alternative is losing control and hoping things don't go too badly. So I'll actually wear a little media drama if it amplifies public health information.

    Meanwhile: Canadian guy infects pigs after returning from Mexico. That's a little unnerving.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Meanwhile: Canadian guy infects pigs after returning from Mexico. That's a little unnerving.

    You had just been informed a smidgen upthread that you don't need to worry about that. Apparently. Focus, Brown!

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Heather W.,

    According to this Center for Disease Control and Prevention factsheet swine flu is quite common in the US and human-to-pig and pig-to-human flu direct transference also common. It's the human-to-human Influenza A(H1N1) version that is more rare.

    In NZ one of the Hawke's Bay possibles (school trip that returned from North America last Tuesday) has been confirmed as North American influenza so caution still required.

    North Shore • Since Nov 2008 • 189 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    You had just been informed a smidgen upthread that you don't need to worry about that. Apparently. Focus, Brown!

    I told you I was sick.

    And, you know, I hovered over that one: it was a science story in The Independent after all (and by their science editor as well, which has traditionally been a warning sign) I should have known better. Nothing in the story explicitly validates the claim about mutation. It's just "scientists say". Bah.

    But another thought: I don't buy McCauley's Survivors style scenario as anything other than a remote possibility, but if a couple of novel viruses did get away, I could see big social changes; certain obligations incumbent on being in public places, lots more handwashing and facemasks, etc.

    One thing to remember is that the 1918 virus appeared as a mild flu, then swept back as a terribly virulent one.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    And, you know, I hovered over that one: it was a science story in The Independent after all (and by their science editor as well, which has traditionally been a warning sign) I should have known better. Nothing in the story explicitly validates the claim about mutation. It's just "scientists say". Bah.

    From what I recall from The Scientist's coverage, jumping species is what creates the conditions for the virus to mutate.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    From what I recall from The Scientist's coverage, jumping species is what creates the conditions for the virus to mutate.

    Sure but eminent people seem to be rather unconcerned.

    The pigs in Alberta were thought to be infected by a farm worker who returned from Mexico on April 12 and began working on the farm two days later. Officials noticed the pigs had flu-like symptoms April 24, Evans said.

    Approximately 10% of the 2,200 pigs on the farm have been infected, Evans said.

    Officials said the pigs were likely infected in the same manner as humans worldwide, and that the virus is acting no differently in the pigs than other swine flu viruses.

    "Whatever virus these pigs were exposed to is behaving in that exact manner as those we regularly see circulating in North America and in swine herds in virtually every nation around the world," Evans said.

    According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, studies have shown that swine flu is common throughout pig populations worldwide, with 25% of animals showing antibody evidence of infection.

    The new virus has shown no signs of mutation when passing from human to pig, Evans said.

    Maybe we need some differing eminent opinions to that we can ramp up the panic again

    Sorry that was a bit snarky but I think there are going to be some questions asked in coming weeks of WHO's response and perhaps a revaluation of if and when the word pandemic, which, despite it's definition, carries rather stronger connotations to a jumpy public and a circulation hungry media, especially when one considers the way WHO and other supposedly eminent people have misused it in recent years

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    Whooo..that was a bit to bitchy..sorry Gio...

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    to ------> too

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • giovanni tiso,

    Whooo..that was a bit to bitchy..sorry Gio...

    No, it was fine. Of course we know about the prevalence of swine flu among pigs, in fact the company that runs the mega farm in Mexico that some blame for the original outbreak claims to run regular vaccination programs and check among the animals. But the mechanism of ricochet among the species and mutation of the virus are far from predictable or containable. Here's The New Scientist a few days ago. With history. And, yes, concern.

    Wellington • Since Jun 2007 • 7473 posts Report Reply

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