Hard News: Problems
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Unfortunatly I notice the left are not quite as ready to cut Key any slack
I think I have ...
NZ really just has to ride this out, there is not much we can do till the big boys put their houses back in order except borrow and spend on things that might give us an edge when the world comes back to us for the things we can provide.
Well,there's some clarity. But I have been personally disappointed at the way the government is going about its business.
Brownlee's slash-and-burn in energy policy, the outrageous passing of long-term education reforms under urgency, the bizarre and improper behaviour of Nick Smith wrt ACC, McCully's commandeering of aid policy, Judith Collins' irrelevant grandstanding ... it's like they've gone into the job with the arrogance of a three-term government.
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Ready and willing ... just as soon as the right get on their knees and thank Michael Cullen for not following their advice and twinning Wellington with Reykjavik.
Quite. Anyone who tub-thumped about how we should be more like Iceland (or Ireland) should be turning in their pundit pass about now.
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s/06/05 :-)
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Australian economist John Quiggin's been running a series called refuted economic doctrines over at Crooked Timber. The highlights for me so far: trickle down and the myth of the 'efficient market'.
I'll second this - its a fascinating series, and well worth reading.
The scary thing is that NZ is an orthodox follower of these failed doctrines.
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Anyone who tub-thumped about how we should be more like ... Ireland should be turning in their pundit pass about now.
What, are you kidding me? They just achieved a little something called a Grand Slam Six Nations win pal. If that's not clear evidence of the benefits of laissez-faire and the trickle-down benefits of corporate tax incentives then you've clearly been blinded by the vast left-wing media...
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What, are you kidding me? They just achieved a little something called a Grand Slam Six Nations win pal.
Forgive me if I don't dance the jig in celebration. Only two of the 6 nations have beaten the All Blacks in the last 50 years. Ireland isn't one of the two.
Mind you, Rogernomics was in full swing the last time we won the World Cup. Maybe Sir Roger is the answer to our current economic woes (choke)
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demanding to know if he's a 'stealth muslim'
Anyone else hear Jon Stewart's Bush voice with them air quotes?
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I managed to grab Tory! Tory! Tory! , the BBC doco about the rise of Thatcherism, in the words of those who were there.
The first part (awesome Saturday viewing, I tell ya) was fascinating, and presented clear themes:
1. By the time the neo-liberals came to influence in Britain, there were stark economic policy problems that needed addressing, and their solutions did speak to that.
2. Most of them were bonkers in one way or another. Unsurprising, given the movement's cultish origins, but it's quite striking that Enoch Powell and Keith Joseph both managed to take themselves out of the game before it started by letting slip some alarming views on race and eugenics.
3. The ground was laid in influencing opinion outside the democratic process -- think-tanks-a-go-go -- long before people got to vote on it all.
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The Iceland article is extraordinary. The two things that stood out for me.
The reporter questions a fisherman-turned-banker (they all pretty much were):
"You spent seven years learning every little nuance of the fishing trade before you were granted the gift of learning from this great captain? And even then you had to sit at the feet of this great master for many months before you felt as if you knew what you were doing? Then why did you think you could become a banker and speculate in financial markets, without a day of training?"
And:
Yet another hedge-fund manager explained Icelandic banking to me this way: You have a dog, and I have a cat. We agree that they are each worth a billion dollars. You sell me the dog for a billion, and I sell you the cat for a billion. Now we are no longer pet owners, but Icelandic banks, with a billion dollars in new assets.
Shit was real fucked up there, but there's a bit of relief that at least things aren't that mental here.
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Shit was real fucked up there, but there's a bit of relief that at least things aren't that mental here.
As Lewis points out early on in the story, Iceland even gave Americans a chance to say "Well, at least we didn't do that ."
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Which is like having a mortgage of 3.5 times earnings - people seem to mostly be able to service those. Or at current interest rates, the US has to put around 15% of GDP into servicing the interest (public and private).
Um No it's not. Mortgages are usually intended to be paid off and if your income drops banks tend to ask hard questions or sell your house.
Most folks would think it a little strange to pass on that kind of debt to their kids. It would be even stranger to suggest that instead of paying off the debt those kids should make it bigger and pass it on to your grandkids, who should make it bigger and pass it on...
Note also in this case many of the lenders (other countries) also have similar debts. Does China actually have all the world's money?
Anyway as for cutting Key some slack...
There is no way any NZ politician can miraculously solve NZ's problems. We are utterly at the mercy of the EU, Asian and US economies. They tank, we tank. All any politician can do for NZ is try to not make it worse.
Cullen did that by not spending tax dollars and paying off debt, at the risk of stifling the NZ internal economy. He got away with it for a while but some of the issues we face now come directly from him not changing his policy fast enough.
What Key is planning to do I have yet to ascertain. He routinely speaks a lot without saying anything (he is a politician after all). I'm not sure there is anything he can do except free up some government money (take less tax and borrow in other words) to try and hold up the internal economy. Someone (your kids) will have to pay that money back sometime, but at least you'll have a job and can send your kids to uni/poly/apprenticeships so they can be skilled enough to pay the money back.
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On Iceland: I am setting an assignment for my students on the Icelandic film industry , which has produced 60 feature films since 1978 (from a population base of 309,000). They are asked to make comparisons with the film output of another small nation (NZ, Algeria, Denmark etc). I realise I should probably put a rider on this topic, as Icelandic film-making has probably gone down the toilet.
On a completely different track: what was that final score in the Blues vs Chiefs game on Saturday again?
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I managed to grab Tory! Tory! Tory!, the BBC doco about the rise of Thatcherism, in the words of those who were there.
I was there. It was weird. The Tories did not realise, until too late, that Thatcher was not a conservative. It should have been easy for them: they were all chaps and had known each other since Eton (I am not making this up). She clearly was not one of them. But they gave in to her irresistible force. And so everything was changed. People exchanged long-held beliefs for new doctrines, because everyone else was doing it.
I suppose Labour under Lange and Douglas was much the same. That period should serve as a warning, but I am sure it will not.
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I managed to grab Tory! Tory! Tory!, the BBC doco about the rise of Thatcherism, in the words of those who were there.
There's only one documentary I want to talk about, and that's the BSG series finale.
But I won't, 'cos I'm not a spoiler.
(Yes this is apropos of nothing. Suck it.)
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Maybe, just maybe, if people were more interested in history than fantasy then we might not be in this mess.
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I do like the school of thought that holds that our problems are simply a function of too many regulations. To quote Sir Roger Douglas (13/3/09):
In terms of the failure of the US financial system, it is becoming increasingly clear that that crisis was not caused by deregulation. The banking sector is the most heavily regulated sector of the US economy.... If anything, the financial crisis should make us more - not less - sceptical of Government interference in markets.
There are many questions, but only one answer... "The market will provide!"
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On a completely different track: what was that final score in the Blues vs Chiefs game on Saturday again?
Cut the Blues some slack. If it had been the Olympics they'd have been given a silver medal, and everyone would be cheering them right now.
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On a completely different track: what was that final score in the Blues vs Chiefs game on Saturday again?
How about that Stacey Jones, eh?
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There are many questions, but only one answer... "The market will provide!"
The moment the market Trotskyists see their cherished dogma disintegrate in front of them, they go into denial. If those in denial weren't so deadly serious, they'd probably be stand-up comedians.
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Maybe, just maybe, if people were more interested in history than fantasy then we might not be in this mess.
Geez Paul, where's the fun in that.
In fantasy there's always a magic wand. In history there are always dead people. Except of course for the Lorax......
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Speaking of John Key, Iceland and remarkable Janet Albrechtson: Can we really say that John Key's short cv fits him for a leading role in hard times, when it doesn't include Icelandic Fisherman?
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I'm sure that John Key has plenty of opportunity to fish from his Omaha and Hawaiian dachas, should he be of a mind to.
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Maybe, just maybe, if people were more interested in history than fantasy then we might not be in this mess.
I didn't do it. I did what I could to avoid it. My carefully considered votes were like dust in the wind.
So now, between sessions in the bar, shouting at the tides with my mates, solving all the world's problems (pretty much boils down to being a lack of artisan crafted cider, as it turns out), I entertain myself with good honest documentaries like BSG and Sarah Connor.
Yeah, the problem must be my fantasy life.
Gimme a break.
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On a completely different track: what was that final score in the Blues vs Chiefs game on Saturday again?
I believe it can only be accurately represented via a logarithmic scale, and SANZAR haven't been able to find one yet...
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Everyone knows that Secretary for Education Roslin's standards-based testing reforms resulted in the rapid decline of training options for Caprican youth, leading to the influx of civilians into the military ("I just signed up to pay my way through dental school") and the unpreparedness of the colonies for the second Cylon war.
Don't get me started on trading in tilium options and working conditions in the refineries.
At some point after this weekend's extravaganza I'll be fit to deal with the real world again.
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