Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Five further thoughts

446 Responses

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  • Farmer Green, in reply to Greg Dawson,

    It’s not clear where the payout would end up if the 30% uplift doesn’t come through,

    One of the trading banks has published a figure of $4 , based on the current GDT auction prices.

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Farmer Green, in reply to Chris Waugh,

    All the comments to that article are very interesting.

    Uh-oh a dairy farmer has posted a comment.
    Time for farmer brown to have another go ; I wonder if he will get moderated.

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Jack Harrison, in reply to Farmer Green,

    post withdrawn

    wellington • Since Aug 2014 • 296 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Farmer Green,

    Each to their own Mr Green. Dont need to panic Mr Brown.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca,

    Can I get a witness. Is the "rockstar" economy in the crapper.Has the dealer been busted?

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    It would be interesting to see what percentage of dairy farms are profitable at various levels of payout. I'm guessing there are a few for which $5.30 doesn't cover the mortgage, and a lot more at $4.

    Not to mention that with the NZD looking a bit shakier and Chinese depositors retrenching, there'll be a lot less demand to lend NZD through the carry trade, which will make mortgage refinancing harder.

    Key might have got re-elected to run into the perfect storm. Of course, he may have realised that and be planning to head off to Hawaii before his term is up.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Jack Harrison,

    Saw a strange article today, some newspaper article worrying that T.V 3 sucked because John Campbell is out of touch with her vision of T.V land.

    Why would newspapers worry about the ratings of Television stations? They have no reason to comment so colourfully apart from self-interest.

    Slagging off a competitors pulling power is a bit naughty , this influences the ad market place, the revenue.

    wellington • Since Aug 2014 • 296 posts Report Reply

  • Yamis, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    It would be interesting to see what percentage of dairy farms are profitable at various levels of payout. I’m guessing there are a few for which $5.30 doesn’t cover the mortgage, and a lot more at $4.

    One of the articles linked to earlier said that farm operating costs alone came to about $4 or a little over in some cases. So even a farm with zero debt would struggle to deal with that for too long. But around 90% of NZ dairy farms do have debt of some sort to service going by the graph that was at the top of aforementioned article. It’s back a few pages

    (edit, page 11). Article below…
    http://agrihq.co.nz/article/no-bonanza-to-debt-laden-farmers

    and Winston Peters is quick to jump on this issue...
    http://agrihq.co.nz/article/surprised-peters-suspects-milk-conspiracy?p=

    Since Nov 2006 • 903 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Jack Harrison,

    Slagging off a competitors pulling power is a bit naughty , this influences the ad market place, the revenue.

    Could you come up with a source, Jack, because I think you've just run out of sharks to jump. Not least because this week, the handful of mentions I've seen of John Campbell and TV3 this week have been to praise their election night coverage over TVNZ's. (Can't say whether that was accurate or not, because the hostess at the party I attended on Saturday declared her living room a Mike Hosking-free zone.)

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Jack Harrison,

    I did read it. It was strange. It’s that strange column that leaves a little bit of sick in your mouth after you’ve read it. Media revenue is god here. You can see what they're doing.

    wellington • Since Aug 2014 • 296 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Come on, surely by now you know the first port of call when there's some shit-stirring masquerading as journalism.

    Slater = Collins = Glucina ...

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=11330147

    They. Never. Stop.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1333 posts Report Reply

  • Jack Harrison, in reply to simon g,

    Thank you simon for making me not link. Thank you Craig for calling me the fonz.

    wellington • Since Aug 2014 • 296 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Jack Harrison,

    I did read it. It was strange. It’s that strange column that leaves a little bit of sick in your mouth after you’ve read it.

    More fool you for reading a gossip column then, chap. Still, I'm sure Ms. Glucina will be flattered to hear her fatuous burblings on the passing parade of autocue readers are of such import in the corridors of media power.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Jack Harrison, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Actually jumping sharks is not easy. If you screw up , the sharks are angry and you find yourself in a situation. The sharks are angry because you’ve tried to jump them. The shark thinks , “do I ever try and jump humans? No”. He’s annoyed and he has justice on his side. He could eat you and legally he has every right to. Home invasion.

    wellington • Since Aug 2014 • 296 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Key might have got re-elected to run into the perfect storm. Of course, he may have realised that and be planning to head off to Hawaii before his term is up.

    And what if Jesse Colombo is proven right and the housing bubble pops? Cunliffe would have dodged a poisoned chalice in that case. I forgot who, but a notable Washington pundit was on record saying that whichever party is in the White House in 2016 could be in the political wilderness for a generation.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5445 posts Report Reply

  • Farmer Green, in reply to ,

    , frontera argued that our domestic milk prices where based on the international market.

    Fonterra offers quarterly contracts. I'll let you know what the wholesale price does.
    Naturally the winter price is much higher than the spring price.

    But wait!
    "winter price is much higher than the spring price."

    What is wrong with this picture? :-)

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Farmer Green, in reply to ,

    No need to apologise to me. Now that the truth about fats is coming out , I'm phasing out all the " low-fat" products that I used to make.
    Eventually people will learn that "full-fat" milk contains only 4% fat, and that removing that minimal fat content effectively removes the Vit A and D. Then adding skim milk powder to improve the palatability simply increases the lactose.

    Your practice also means that you get a lowered protein %.

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Farmer Green,

    the fat of the land...

    Then adding skim milk powder to improve the palatability
    simply increases the lactose

    More sugar increases in one's diet by stealth,
    and not for health?

    Can we then lay some of the modern 'Obesity Problem'
    at Big Dairy's door, as well?

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Yamis,

    Thanks for that. That's exactly the numbers I wanted. So basically a $5.30 figure is break-even for an "average" farm and at $4 every dairy farm will be in the red.

    I'm told by a former farmer that a good farmer pays down debt in the good times so as to have a buffer, but given those figures (and the minimal tax receipts from the dairy industry) they haven't been doing that much.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Farmer Green, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    at $4 every dairy farm will be in the red.

    There will be a few with cost of sales below $4; they will be the ones with less than one cow /acre; no nitrogen fertiliser used ; no "dairy support" purchased; no irrigation; and likely to be family- operated.
    Of course if they have no reserves of feed or money , then their fortunes will be very much at the mercy of the weather.

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Farmer Green,

    In further breaking news, the CEO of Fonterra , Theo Spierings did not say

    " . . . we can become the undisputed world leader in exported cheese, yoghurt etc.. . . these are the products that deliver the greatest premiums and for which a growing middle class is ever hungrier . . "

    Oops ! Stupid me!

    Of course Theo Spierings did not say that ; it was the Dairy Australia chief executive Ian Halliday who said that.

    What was I thinking?

    Sorry about that!

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Farmer Green,

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Jack Harrison,

    Aucklands housing bubble could go on for another ten years because it’s not Christchurch and it’s not Wellington ,and it has a biggger job market than anywhere in the country.

    It will just keep pulling people until a strategy is worked out for the civic boosting of other cities. National are reluctant to yank the bubble, as were Labour under Clark because to reverse immigration into the city would reverse economic stimulus in very influential sectors.

    Auckland houses and it's new constant swap culture is big business to very prominent Auckland economic players and creates an unhealthy house versus a non-house citizenry.

    wellington • Since Aug 2014 • 296 posts Report Reply

  • Farmer Green, in reply to Jack Harrison,

    It will just keep pulling people until

    . . . local body rates in Auckland rise to a level sufficient to provide that every waterbody/waterway is swimmable , and the only discharge to water from Auckland is . . . water.

    That would be fair wouldn't it?

    Lower North Island • Since Nov 2012 • 778 posts Report Reply

  • Jack Harrison, in reply to Farmer Green,

    It's certainly something that has to happen from my scientific readings. Polluting waterways is crazy shit for small islands.

    wellington • Since Aug 2014 • 296 posts Report Reply

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