Posts by Rob Hosking
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Couple of points:
One is that like many posters here I'd like to see greater scientific literacy, if thats the word, among journalists. There's an inbuilt bias away from the sciences in journalism, because most of us (myself included) are artsy types.
Its of particular concern, I guess, because our economy depends pretty much exclusively on 'life sciences'.
I don't agree though that only qualified climate scientists are entitled to be reported on the subject of climate change, (although one good side effect would be it would shut Al Gore up).
To quote somebody or other, we didn't abolish the divine right of kings in order to fall down before the divine right of experts. This is a public policy debate.
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Cui bono?
Nah, he's in the clear.
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The "recession is inevitable" line is false and that is what Ganesh was trying to say before Bernard cut him off.
A lot of the economic woe stuff ash to do with it being election year, and Don Brash tried *exactly* the same line in 2005.The talk of recession, or even economic woe, has got bugger all to do with the election. AAnd I'm not sure anyone is saying a recession is inevitable - I talk to economists every week and no-one has said that.
There is a slowdown under way, which had to happen simply because you can only boost consumption by borrowing for so long before you have to stop and pay back at least some of the debt. That has sweet FA to do with the electoral cycle.
The most telling stat in last year's Budget papers - emphatically not referred to in any of the speeches or press releases - was Treasury's estimate of how much extra households would be paying out in interest payments over the next couple of years. Just short of $4 billion. That was (a) on top of existing interest payments and (b) based on calculations made before the US credit crunch hit and made finance for the banks even more expensive. It is also more than 2% of annual GDP.
It is quite possible, as some are saying, that we are already hitting the bottom of the cycle, and things will pick up from heronin. I'm not so sure. There's one hell of a lot of debt people have taken on under the assumption property values would continue to rise in double figures.
On the positive side: most NZ firms are not carrying high amounts of debt, and capital investment over the past five years has been quite high.
Personally, I doubt we will see a full blown recession, but we're going to have an extended period - possibly 2-3 years - of slow growth.
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Re: the Wahine - happened to be re-reading Maurice Gee's Plumb trilogy. There's a bit about the Wahine storm in the third book, Sole Survivor. Gee is brilliant on Wellington weather - there's some great bits also in Going West on the way the northerlies gust and swirl violently around Tinakori Rd.
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Is it too nerdy of me to recognise quite a few of those cassette inlay cards, and also to notice that the TEAC C90s that I used to live off (bought by the box of ten for about $20 as I recall) aren't there?
The cheapest I recall buying were from Farmers - $1.99 each (this was about 1982) but without any inlay cards at all. Had to make your own.
BTW - you're not the same Dave Patrick who lived in Waiuku, mid 70s onwards? If so, gidday...
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David,
You posted some Armstrong & Miller a couple of months back: I'd never heard of them, but thanks for enriching my life, I think they're brilliant.
I think you're a bit harsh on Morcombe & Wise. Even when their material wasn't up to scratch, their performing (OK, Morcombe's) usually overcame it.
Fry and Laurie? The first time I realised what a huge talent Hugh Laurie had was when I saw this:
Be Nice! -
Nae King! Nae quin! Nae Laird! Nae master! We willna' be fooled agin!
Crivens! There can only be one t'ousand!
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Obviously the memory kinda lingers....
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Those of us at school in the mid-70s might remember this: a Dunedin band, but not of the sort you might normally associate with the term...
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Other good country songs:
'Drop Kick Me Jesus through the Goalposts of Life' by Bobby Bare is a classic.
Its here:
'Spiders and Snakes' and 'Wildwood Weed' (both by Jim Stafford) are also pretty damn good.