Public Address | Cafe | Speaker: TPP: This is a fight worth joining

David Hood

Wed, 20 Nov 2013 10:33:12 +1300

Nice visualisations of the leaked chapter
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/18/the-united-states-is-isolated-in-the-trans-pacific-partnership-negotiations/

Kumara Republic

Fri, 15 Nov 2013 11:48:13 +1300

From the Fairfax Web: WikiLeaks exposes trade talks

Chris Waugh

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 15:16:26 +1300

I had a look at CNN to see how the US is responding, but couldn't find anything. The Washington Post, however, is on the case, I found these two:
Hollywood wish-list, which makes an interesting statement:

But in other cases, the U.S. position appears to run counter to U.S. law.…

David Hood

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 14:54:07 +1300

Unrelated to the TPP (except as a sign of how the U.S.A. responds to treaty issues)- It must be said , the slowly unfolding U.S.A./ Antigua WTO dispute has been hilarious from the outside.
http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/avast-me-hearties-antigua-legally-pirate-us-copyrighted-works

Chris Waugh

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 14:17:09 +1300

China must be loving this.

You'd think, but I've searched Baidu News, Xinhua and The Beijing News and can't find anything. Still, it is only quarter past nine, and the Third Plenum is hogging all the column inches and pixels. Maybe there'll be something this afternoon.

Sacha

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:55:39 +1300

China must be loving this.

Kumara Republic

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:53:57 +1300

I’ve just been thinking this. I suppose the idea of just expelling the US and getting a deal done isn’t realistic …

Too Big To Expel, much? The way things are going, it's looking less like a free trade agreement, and more like the East India Company with cellphones.

Matthew Poole

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:46:20 +1300

I suppose the idea of just expelling the US and getting a deal done isn’t realistic …

I suspect not, no, particularly since trade negotiations work on consensus and the US wouldn't agree to being ejected when there's still the possibility of brow-beating everyone else into submission in the US's…

Russell Brown

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:43:57 +1300

Let’s ignore the US, for the moment. Pretend their obnoxious positions aren’t present, and it’s the original trade agreement that was envisaged. A comprehensive winding-back of agricultural protectionism in the likes of Korea would be good for NZ. That would still happen, with or without the other bullshit which has…

Matthew Poole

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:09:33 +1300

and hell, the US ain’t good at honouring the associations it already belongs to

Indeed not. Their long and ignominious history of losing before the WTO, only to be taken back for the exact same behaviour by the same victim "trading partner" shortly thereafter, speaks volumes to their true colours…

Matthew Poole

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:07:00 +1300

How would it be bad for New Zealand to walk away from it?

We are not gaining anything from it, are we?

Let's ignore the US, for the moment. Pretend their obnoxious positions aren't present, and it's the original trade agreement that was envisaged. A comprehensive winding-back of agricultural protectionism…

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 12:23:46 +1300

Imperius wrecks...
the USA should never have been allowed to join
Damn straight! +1
Classic 'cuckoo-in-the-nest' behaviour,
or am I thinking of parasites?

...and hell, the US ain't good at honouring the associations it already belongs to:
They, along with Israel, have lost voting rights at UNESCO for non payment of…

Paul Campbell

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 12:02:26 +1300

Here's the wikileaks link

http://wikileaks.org/tpp/

Chris Waugh

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 11:33:33 +1300

NZ Herald, too. It looks to me like the USA should never have been allowed to join, and now that it is in, we should get out.

David Hood

Thu, 14 Nov 2013 11:14:58 +1300

The Sydney Morning Herald is reporting on a leak of the IP Chapter
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/trade-deal-could-be-bitter-medicine-20131113-2xh4p.html
It sounds pretty bad for NZ from that.

Sacha

Fri, 01 Nov 2013 21:49:11 +1300

We are not gaining anything from it, are we?

Probably something, to be fair. But it's hard to weigh that up when they won't tell their citizens what they're trading off.

gregfullmoon

Fri, 25 Oct 2013 22:34:41 +1300

How would it be bad for New Zealand to walk away from it?

We are not gaining anything from it, are we?

And the USA doesn't want our dairy, and do we want more dairy farms anyway?

We have mutual trade arrangements with a number of the countries and one…

Kyle Matthews

Mon, 14 Oct 2013 12:03:30 +1300

*This* is not an impossibility, and has been contemplated & signalled by USA writers since the 1940s-

So 0/70 or so then? Not a very good prediction rate.

Sacha

Sat, 12 Oct 2013 12:22:55 +1300

And I get really nervous when politicians tell us to 'relax'. It is that patronising 'we know best' attitude, when really I don't believe they do.

You only have to hear Groser, Joyce and co speak about the TPP after you've learned the most basic features of it to have…

Stewart

Fri, 11 Oct 2013 23:10:20 +1300

While I am cautious about most forms of FTA, I can see that benefits accrue when the partners of the FTA are of approximately similar-sized economies. But when there is a significant imbalance in the size of the economies the agreements always tend to favour the larger economy, to the…

Judy Spencer

Fri, 11 Oct 2013 18:37:16 +1300

This response from an American activist organisation on the TPPA which affects Americans:
start watching at 25.11 for the TPPA 'take action' comments, although the whole piece is worth listening to – Monsanto (there is an anti-Monsanto March tomorrow at Aotea at 2pm), Nestle stealing water and paying nothing, a…

George Darroch

Fri, 11 Oct 2013 14:36:08 +1300

The impacts aren't well explored.

While medicine and IT have well-stated objections, the effects will be felt across all areas of society.

In my new day job I'm reading quite heavily about pokie machines. As you might expect, the global industry is led by the United States, with Nevada being…

Don Christie

Fri, 11 Oct 2013 09:25:34 +1300

The opposition to the TPP is not a minority far left movement

Correct. NZRise represents the NZ owned digital business sector. One of our very first acts was to attend the Vietnam round a few years ago and instigate the "lunch with negotiators" events. We are concerned about the TPP…

Chris Waugh

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 22:58:18 +1300

There is talk of American interests reshoring in America because of the wages in emerging economies increasing and therefore reducing the need for multinationals to go off shore.

Yes, there's been talk of China manufacturing shifting to Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, wherever cheaper, for years, with others countering "but China's…

Judy Spencer

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 22:29:33 +1300

I'm interested to know where the Price Waterhouse Coopers wage and manufacturing report sits in regard to the TPPA. It certainly proves the point that low wages are always the major link to where manufacturers tend to set up shop and it certainly puts the lie to New Zealand wages…

Sacha

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 19:53:46 +1300

If the TPP is agreed in the form that is feared, it could have implications for access to affordable medicines all over the world

That is the hope of the big pharma companies who have been privy to its details, yes.

Islander

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 16:37:42 +1300

nd it would be catastrophic for me and many others who have played medication roulette for a long time and finally found something that works.

One of my family takes Venlafaxine daily – because it's the only one -after playing
that medecine roulette for nearly 3 years – that brought…

Judith Fursdon

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 15:26:52 +1300

As a mental health client, I take a range of medications, but the two most effective are the expensive ones. I really do fear the measures that Pharmac will have to take in order to keep their budget under control. After all, there are similar drugs in the same class…

Geoff Lealand

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 14:50:00 +1300

Although there is a hint of instant gratification (I want my new show and I want it now...!!) regarding access to film and TV shows, there is an important issue around the monopolisation of content by one dominant player in NZ pay-TV. Certainly, Sky got off far too lightly in…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 10:51:52 +1300

Cause and effect? The Chinese economy has grown rapidly in that period. In particular, the middle class (who consume our dairy products) have grown greatly in numbers and wealth. Consumption of raw materials (such as timber and coal, especially before construction and hence the steel input complex slumped) has also…

linger

Thu, 10 Oct 2013 09:25:50 +1300

NZ’s exports to China have trebled since the signing of the China-NZ FTA in early 2008. See the graph. That FTA was and is crucial to our economy.

… although the impact on NZ’s balance of trade is less clear-cut, as NZ imports from China have also risen since the…

Matthew Reid

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 20:54:00 +1300

I’m worried for New Zealander’s access to affordable medicines through Pharmac.

And beyond that, the availability of generic pharmaceuticals is a global issue. If the TPP is agreed in the form that is feared, it could have implications for access to affordable medicines all over the world, particularly if its…

Islander

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 19:46:15 +1300

I wonder what would happen to any FTA if the USA becomes a fractured or divided country?

*This* is not an impossibility, and has been contemplated & signalled by USA writers since the 1940s-

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 18:51:02 +1300

I wonder what would happen to any FTA if the USA becomes a fractured or divided country? – they sure seem hellbent on fomenting insurrection at the moment...
I'd want some clause in there that said if the level of democratic process or basic freedoms drop below a certain point…

Ross Mason

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 18:46:05 +1300

So John Key is saying the opposite now from 2003. What is he going to do when he is no longer PM? Do a Helen Clark? Unlikely. But there are surely openings for gamblers like inside the WTO or the World Bank.Oh..and Tim Groser has been in the running for…

Sacha

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 17:55:20 +1300

You have to ask who is running this thing.

Powerful US industry lobbies who as Hadyn notes have had privileged access to the negotiations all along (unlike our own parliament).

Groser and chums are utterly deluded if they think our farmers will get better access to the US, but they're…

Russell Brown

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 17:29:56 +1300

I’ve never found a free trade agreement of any use in selling things overseas.

You may not be looking hard enough. NZ’s exports to China have trebled since the signing of the China-NZ FTA in early 2008. See the graph. That FTA was and is crucial to our economy.

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 17:22:59 +1300

A TPP between the "small" pacific countries was a good idea for NZ

But they already buy lots of stuff from us, and are mostly constrained by having no money.

Generally, if we make things people want, they'll buy them, free trade agreement or not. Even if they hate and…

Myles Thomas

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 17:04:17 +1300

The TPPA could limit our local creative industries also. It would make local quotas for TV or music illegal (unfair favouring of local suppliers). Although we don't have quotas at the moment they've worked really well in Australia and we might need them in future. This method of assuring local…

Bart Janssen

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 16:34:50 +1300

downplayed John Key’s role

i.e. he kept the minutes. I hope his typing skills were up for it and they didn't make him run and get tea and biscuits too often.

izogi

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 16:29:53 +1300

That J-Pop video is actually pretty cool. It's funny how the concerns raised from an economy so different from NZ could be so similar, though it probably should be expected.

lprent

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 15:04:43 +1300

Generally the tech sector views it with trepidation. A agreement designed to make it easier to sell milk powder trading off our fastest growing export sectors? Haven't found a tech manager/investor yet who views it with anything apart from disquiet.

Doesn't offer us anything and gives us the negative creativity…

Russell Brown

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 14:49:44 +1300

This Knowledge Ecology International paper, Evolving Copyright and the Relationship With the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, offers a detailed and highly useful update on the copyright/IP elements of TPP negotiations.

It's notable how the USTR position tramples not only on existing US law, but on explicit White House positions. You have…

Hadyn Green

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 14:40:01 +1300

I did enjoy the US press briefing which rather downplayed John Key's role:
Secretary Kerry served as the head of – took the President’s place and played a very important role in the meeting both in terms of presenting the U.S. perspective but also in helping to lead the discussion…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 14:37:34 +1300

Schrödinger's Trade Agreement...
Why would we want to enter a Free Trade Agreement with a country that owes at least $US16 trillion (and gawd knows how many dollars there are in existence these days) and has ground to a halt because of a bid to borrow more?

Time to cut…

Chris Waugh

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 14:34:43 +1300

But the inclusion of the large anti-competitive, protectionist countries like Japan and the US means that the TPP is likely to be very bad for NZ since it is likely to include provisions that are anything but "free-trade".

I agree completely. Allowing the US in was a huge mistake.

But…

Kumara Republic

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 14:24:23 +1300

But we can’t walk away now because a TPP that excluded NZ…

Bart Janssen

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 14:16:35 +1300

I think we're screwed. A TPP between the "small" pacific countries was a good idea for NZ.

But the inclusion of the large anti-competitive, protectionist countries like Japan and the US means that the TPP is likely to be very bad for NZ since it is likely to include provisions…

Kumara Republic

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 13:39:47 +1300

The TPPA in its current form will be even more pointless if farm subsidies remain a sacred cow, and the ICT sector treated as expendable, by which point it will simply become an excuse to have an East India Company with cellphones.

Aside from InternetNZ, where do our local techpreneurs…

Stephen R

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 13:32:28 +1300

Thanks for this Hadyn, I appreciate it a lot.

lprent

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 12:05:06 +1300

Should be an interesting debate about the TPPA between Wayne Mapp and Jane Kelsey on opposite sides tonight in Auckland.

As far as I’m aware it s about the first time that one of the supporters of the TPPA has fronted up. Personally I suspect that Jane Kelsey will cream…

Graham Dunster

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 12:00:51 +1300

Thanks, Hadyn, appreciate the updated scarey preçis. I wonder if it will eke out long enough for Cunliffe to be our main man, If so, where will he take us?

Public Address

Wed, 09 Oct 2013 12:00:51 +1300

Discussion from blog post.