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		<title>Public Address | Cafe | Speaker: The silent minority</title>
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		<description><![CDATA[A talking shop where we put the questions and our community illuminates the issues.]]></description>
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				<title>Rich Lock</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347407#post347407</link>
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						<p><q>the left get their zero-cost victories and the right get their depleted uranium.</q></p><p>Yeah, it's a bit hard not to compare and contrast opposition to the Vietnam war with opposition to Gulf Wars I and II, the main difference being that there was a significant risk that nice white middle-class…</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sept 2015 20:18:28 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Steve Barnes</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347354#post347354</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347354#post347354</guid>
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						Making people aware of the "damage" being done to the  country by National would increase the number of people voting, whether the damage was real or imagined would not make any difference to this. Telling people how much "damage" would be done by Labour and the Greens would not make…
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				<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sept 2015 11:40:37 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Rich of Observationz</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347348#post347348</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347348#post347348</guid>
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						<p><q>there has been a lot of progress in the last few decades, but it’s all been on a level of ‘benefit to the individual’</q></p><p>It's also things that are zero-cost to the 1%. The only downside for them is antagonising the proles.</p><p>And a lot of the "left" are happy…</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sept 2015 10:52:47 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Ian Dalziel</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347334#post347334</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347334#post347334</guid>
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						<p><q>No discussions 55%</q><br />The <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/71698532/maurice-williamson-apologises-for-sexist-speech" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> 'Maurice'</a> Minority?</p><p>Bringing in epidemiological models for disease outbreak is on the money &ndash; something is spreading fast through the whole National stable &ndash; perhaps they should be quarantined, lest they infect the public ...- oh, too late....</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sept 2015 09:37:02 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347325#post347325</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347325#post347325</guid>
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						<p>this is actually interesting</p><p>If you take the how interested in politics are you question, and focus the people who declared "Not at all interested" and then look at how many in person politics discussions were they in, the voting rates are <br />Frequent discussions 100% (tiny, tiny group)<br />Occasional discussions…</p>
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				<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sept 2015 08:55:02 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Rich Lock</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347322#post347322</link>
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						<p><q>By the spirit of igniting thought, I didn't mean killing it stone dead. Now I really wish I'd deleted that post.</q></p><p>Well, I'm glad you didn't anyway.</p><p>What you're saying broadly chimes with some vague thoughts I've been having.  Firstly, and without wishing to minimise the considerable problems that still…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sept 2015 22:09:15 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>BenWilson</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347318#post347318</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347318#post347318</guid>
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						<p><q>Though here is one media people can read to much into</q></p><p>Yes, it looks like an almost classic case of being careful to distinguish causation and correlation. Lots of alternate reasons why these could be correlated besides the hypothesis that these particular news sources improve a person's likelihood to vote.</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sept 2015 17:19:50 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347316#post347316</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347316#post347316</guid>
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						<p>Though here is one media people can read to much into (there is only 5% in difference for most media sources for most people). This isn't trying to work out peoples total electoral news consumption, just plotting the individual sources.</p><p>Still, National Radio should be pleased- being at the top…</p>
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				<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sept 2015 16:57:11 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347312#post347312</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347312#post347312</guid>
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						There is a lot happening this week. (false) flag choices, refugees, etc
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				<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sept 2015 15:43:47 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>BenWilson</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347311#post347311</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347311#post347311</guid>
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						By the spirit of igniting thought, I didn't mean killing it stone dead. Now I really wish I'd deleted that post.
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				<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sept 2015 15:40:49 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>BenWilson</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347174#post347174</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347174#post347174</guid>
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						<p><q>I’m torn between the shame of it</q></p><p>I'm torn on whether to be shamed on it at all. If the social atomization that Rob is referring to above is a real thing, and an ongoing trend, aren't we proselytizing against the tide? (sound nicer than "pissing into the wind").</p><p>What…</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sept 2015 13:14:16 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Bart Janssen</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347098#post347098</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347098#post347098</guid>
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						<p><q> having my own little n=1 lab specimen in the house</q></p><p>Isn't that the reason to have children?</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sept 2015 10:53:24 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Emma Hart</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347095#post347095</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347095#post347095</guid>
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						<p>It's a <a href="http://publicaddress.net/up-front/reviewing-the-election/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cohort thing</a>, indeed. Those young people establish a pattern of not voting, and largely carry it through their lives &ndash; so far at least, which is into their thirties.</p><p>I've recently discovered that my own 18 year old daughter isn't enrolled to vote, and can't be arsed enrolling…</p>
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				<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sept 2015 10:12:33 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347084#post347084</link>
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						General reports are that it is a cohort thing, but I haven't looked at it myself. That will be a particularly interesting question when the 2014 results become available soon given what happened to Labour.
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				<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sept 2015 09:01:23 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Lilith __</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347076#post347076</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347076#post347076</guid>
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						David, have you looked at the youth-not-voting issue compared with other elections? I'd be interested to know if political engagement increases with age, or if it's more a generational thing.
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				<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sept 2015 00:11:50 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Emma Hart</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347050#post347050</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347050#post347050</guid>
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						<p><q>Asian New Zealanders in several surveys are the most intensive internet users, but I’m not sure what their electoral turnout is like. </q></p><p>From memory, they're one of the lowest turn-out ethnic groups, along with Pasifika.</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 17:01:32 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>chris</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347049#post347049</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347049#post347049</guid>
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						<p><q>16%</q></p><p>Thanks for that David, much appreciated.</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 16:47:17 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347048#post347048</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347048#post347048</guid>
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						<p><q>I’d like to know more about them.</q></p><p>Looking at it in detail, I think the results for that question are heavily influenced by, in the wake of the election as people fill out the forms, who won.</p><p>Voting won't make any difference is made up of: Labour 37%, National 14%,…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 16:36:42 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347044#post347044</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347044#post347044</guid>
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						I did a cross tab table to make the distinction between interest and knowledge. The take-home is that for a given level of interest there are a range of knowledges, so their knowledge is not fully dependent on their enthusiasm. So raising peoples knowledge to get them to vote is…
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 16:20:47 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Russell Brown</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347043#post347043</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347043#post347043</guid>
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						<p><q>Basically, there is no real difference in there. My suspicion is that as the most recent "age of the internet" has become embedded with day to day lives, any atomisation from the early days has gone away.</q></p><p>Yup. Although you would find the greatest differences in internet use within older…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 16:14:34 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>chris</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347038#post347038</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347038#post347038</guid>
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						<p><q>a big raw number of a bigger raw column, but the percentage is about the same as the reasonable difference.</q></p><p>Yes, a little difficult to fully apprehend without the tables, perhaps it’s the #f89828. but I’m liking your angle David. I guess the real outliers in that group are those…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 15:16:16 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347037#post347037</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347037#post347037</guid>
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						<p><q>This doesn’t really seem to follow, does it?</q></p><p>I absolutely agree causality is not established. To do that you would really need to be measuring an intervention. However, in terms of what the data suggests in terms of the space in which an individual might most constructively put their efforts,…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 15:14:30 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347036#post347036</link>
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						<p><q>The percentage of abstainers in the “voting can make a big difference” </q></p><p>It looks to me that, once you believe voting can make a difference, believing it more strongly doesn't make much of a difference. The larger abstainers in the bar chart is just that it is a big raw…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 15:10:03 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347035#post347035</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347035#post347035</guid>
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						<p><q> I'm sure there are a ton of studies testing and retesting Putnam's claims on this,</q></p><p>From a very quick reading, Putman made no particular claims about the internet, and </p><p><a href="http://www.psmag.com/health-and-behavior/americans-are-staying-as-far-away-from-each-other-as-possible" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">http://www.psmag.com/health-and-behavior/americans-are-staying-as-far-away-from-each-other-as-possible</a></p><p>notes:</p><p><q>There is, of course, one space where civic engagement is alive and well, which Cortright glosses over: the Internet.…</q></p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 15:05:14 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Michael Homer</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347034#post347034</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347034#post347034</guid>
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						<q>If, through talking to them, you increase their knowledge of politics from 0 to 0.5 (nothing to half informed) you increase their chance of voting from 67% to 89%</q>This doesn't really seem to follow, does it? Someone who's fundamentally uninterested isn't going either to know much or to vote, and…
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 14:56:12 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>chris</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347033#post347033</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347033#post347033</guid>
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						The percentage of abstainers in the “voting can make a big difference”  group seems quite high. Does the ‘abstain’ category also apply to those who were unable to vote?
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 14:55:07 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Rob Salmond</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347031#post347031</link>
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						<p><q>I can justify that with:</p><p>2011 voting rate for those with access to the internet 87.45%<br />2011 voting rate for those with no access to the internet 87.50%</p><p>And that difference is just margin of error.</q></p><p>I think looking at this in a bivariate way isn't likely to give you…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 14:51:44 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347029#post347029</link>
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						<p><q>nihilists? </q></p><p>I haven't gone through the data, but the story I assume in lack of evidence is a mix of principled atheists who are voting at the same rate as everyone else, through to the extremely lazy.</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 14:40:45 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347028#post347028</link>
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						<p><q>For Putnam, technological change (eg. TV, internet) is a large, long-term driver of that atomisation</q></p><p>While I have not looked at TV, but can understand the case for it doing that, I don't think Internet is having that effect (possibly because we are now in the age of community building…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 14:18:27 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Rob Salmond</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347027#post347027</link>
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						<p>These results seem right, and fit with both common sense and much of the existing literature on turnout. (The Pacific MPs thing is the obvious, very NZ-specific, exception.)</p><p>Bob Putnam's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowling_Alone" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bowling Alone</a> makes similar claims about why voter turnout is declining in the US. He says turnout decline just one…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 13:29:08 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>chris</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347025#post347025</link>
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						Sorry I missed the largish number of non-religious abstainers &ndash; nihilists? Anyway...
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 13:09:12 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>chris</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347022#post347022</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347022#post347022</guid>
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						<p>*comprehension.</p><p>There’s some fascinating stuff here David.  I was interested by this;</p><p><q>Basically, the 18-26 year olds (as I divide it up in this graph) are not-voting at about twice the rate of the next cohort. </q></p><p>Though not a new trend it’s good to have data. It popped back into…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 12:51:19 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347018#post347018</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347018#post347018</guid>
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						<p><q> *effect* </q></p><p>A fair cop :) Though it was what language was spoken at home, rather than a pure measure of fluency.</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 12:17:17 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>BenWilson</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347015#post347015</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347015#post347015</guid>
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						LOL. Now, now.
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 12:10:48 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>EliotBlennerhassett</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347013#post347013</link>
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						Hmmmm.  "Now, there are other groups where things *effect* voting – for example English language fluency"
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 12:07:53 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>BenWilson</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347011#post347011</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347011#post347011</guid>
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						<p>jknow is not a questionaire value, but one of those calculated after the fact. Does it take weighting into account already?</p><p>ETA: I'm not expecting you to know the answer, just bringing this to your attention, although I'm pretty sure you already knew.</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 11:58:45 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>David Hood</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347009#post347009</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347009#post347009</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[
						<p><q>You’re assuming that sample is representative of the total population</q></p><p>Er, I did say "As a technical note, this is just playing with the survey results themselves, without working through the weightings to make them representative of the general population." </p><p>This is a Sunday Evenings stroll through the data. I…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 11:52:03 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>BenWilson</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347008#post347008</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347008#post347008</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[
						<p>Great work. The question of engagement is fascinating. Interaction between the variables you found would be good to know about.</p><p>From a biased perspective, it would also be very interesting to know whether the decision trees come out different, conditioned on what party they .... hmmmmm....felt closest to? (Can't be…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 11:50:31 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Rich of Observationz</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347005#post347005</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=347005#post347005</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[
						<p><q>the response rate (weighted to take account of the oversampling) was 31.2 per cent</q></p><p>There’s your problem, right there. You’re assuming that sample is representative of the total population, but the respondents are self-selecting for being interested in filling out a 24 page questionnaire. That would, I think, give you…</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 11:38:15 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Tom Semmens</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=346999#post346999</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=346999#post346999</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[
						Lovely graphs. Pity the Soviet Corbynites are now shelling your bunker.
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 11:26:19 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Katharine Moody</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=346998#post346998</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=346998#post346998</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[
						<p>Here's a great example initiative along these lines during the lead up to the last election;</p><p><a href="https://www.pledgeme.co.nz/projects/2411-political-cuts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.pledgeme.co.nz/projects/2411-political-cuts</a></p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 11:21:00 +1200</pubDate>
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				<title>Public Address</title>
				<link>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=346997#post346997</link>
				<guid>https://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-the-silent-minority/?p=346997#post346997</guid>
				<description><![CDATA[
						<p>Discussion from blog post.</p>
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				<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sept 2015 11:21:00 +1200</pubDate>
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