Public Address | Cafe | Polity: The overconfidence man

andin

Sat, 04 Jul 2015 20:26:28 +1200

For some it’s because many citizens feel shafted and they want to put NZer’s first, for others it’s zenophobic. I happen to feel it’s both.

Well people being what they are, there's a whole lotta grey area in those two small things. Is the planet crowded yet?

BenWilson

Sat, 04 Jul 2015 14:18:56 +1200

It's pretty safe to say that byelections don't work like full elections. There's less at stake and an increased sense of the value of the vote, and the campaign is likely to be targeting entirely local issues. Also, in this case, there is the confounding factor of the extraordinary reason…

Sofie Bribiesca

Sat, 04 Jul 2015 10:16:03 +1200

Peters campaign up North was one man and 2 helpers on a bus . Standing on street corners with a microphone . Visiting pubs and halls and community centres and he talked with everyone who wanted to talk . He listened to what was being said. He is good at…

Sofie Bribiesca

Sat, 04 Jul 2015 09:45:41 +1200

When I went into the Council to vote in the Bi election, I spoke with a man who's wife was voting . He was trying to get off the Maori role as he felt it was worth a vote against National. He felt very strongly about it. Interesting times .…

izogi

Sat, 04 Jul 2015 08:13:29 +1200

It crossed my mind to wonder. I'm still not clear if it was a giant mass mailing, or a targeted thing at addresses recently identified to have new occupants for the purposes of gauging political preferences at the address.

The return slip address was freepost to parliament, but I guess…

Ian Dalziel

Sat, 04 Jul 2015 05:31:40 +1200

it's a funny old thing, life(buoy)...
Sadly we’re probably looking down the barrel of a fourth term for Key. Andrew Little is a nice guy but he isn’t resonating with the public. ...
Maybe I’m having a bad Friday…
Hopefully that's just a case of premature capitulation – coupla years…

Kumara Republic

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 23:48:25 +1200

Bridges bribe was cream for Winston. Either Winston forced National to give 10 new bridges in 10 days or if not it proved they were dirty liars as has been seen now. And he made National pledge them even if they lost. So ,now Northlanders see more lies from National.…

Kevin McCready

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 19:54:55 +1200

'slick PR machine' ? And that doesn't describe Winston??? Peters is the flipflop champion of NZ history. It's just that he's probably the smartest at in in NZ history.

tony j ricketts

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 19:23:56 +1200

Someone needs to think hard about the Maori seats – turnout is usually low in these seats, which means that the simple numbers of actual party votes cannot be large, and it is party votes that decide parliament.

Joe Wylie

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 19:14:02 +1200

Key now has a media stacked to the gunnels with his cheerleaders.

Swine with mouths in the trough seems a more apt image

The more talented ones seem to be able to cheerlead, trough, and tug at their cuffs all at the same time.

andin

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 19:02:54 +1200

Key now has a media stacked to the gunnels with his cheerleaders.

Swine with mouths in the trough seems a more apt image

Kumara Republic

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 18:51:14 +1200

People who can afford lawyers. Since forever.

It does seem to have company town strong-arming written all over it.

Ewan Morris

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 17:11:11 +1200

can’t find the mandatory publication of it, which I think was in the print edition, anywhere on The Herald’s website

Here

Euan Mason

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 16:18:56 +1200

Sadly we’re probably looking down the barrel of a fourth term for Key. Andrew Little is a nice guy but he isn’t resonating with the public. This public is insensitive to serious misbehaviour by the Nats so long as JK gets out there and dissembles wildly. People don’t get what’s…

Sacha

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 15:23:50 +1200

If the Northern Advocate had to retract info re, Ruakaka Kauri within a couple of days of that story going to print, who is pulling the strings?

People who can afford lawyers. Since forever.

Sofie Bribiesca

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 15:15:03 +1200

This is something the Press council could look at, I reckon. Should be "banner of the day"

The herald should have been ordered to acknowledge the ruling in print etc. If the Northern Advocate had to retract info re, Ruakaka Kauri within a couple of days of that story going…

Kumara Republic

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 15:08:51 +1200

With Helen Clark and Jim Bolger, “having a beer” with the PM seemed an unlikely thing, but an insignificant thing. Now it seems to be the only thing.

Sometimes I wonder if it's the most successful astroturf job ever pulled off in NZ. Or has Tall Poppy Syndrome cashed up…

Rob Stowell

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 13:43:23 +1200

We collectively can push for better accountability.

Amen to that,
On a slightly different note, as one of the (9 or 10) complainants to the Press Council over Glucina's ponytail article, I was pleased with the ruling* and very pleasantly surprised how supportive Press Council people were in their interactions.…

Joe Wylie

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 12:05:02 +1200

We collectively can push for better accountability. Everyone can help. No matter what preference of Party. If we treat the opposition as one instead of individual groups, the opposition will be a more powerful force.

Amen to that, though one would have to be Pollyanna personified to work the likes…

Sofie Bribiesca

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 11:36:59 +1200

Yes, here's hoping the average National voter doesn't have the stomach for the kill, when they wake up and realise the future National will be denying the generations to follow

Although many National voters got out on Bi Election day up here in the North, it took Winston shouting louder…

BenWilson

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 11:33:24 +1200

Well then how about inviting David to switch loyalty

Why bother? It's actually a good thing, what he does. Keeping National abreast of the public mood is probably why they're swinging to the left already. And it's not rocket science. There's room in the NZ market for 2 of him.

Ianmac

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 11:23:29 +1200

We need data. We need a David Farrar of the left.
Well then how about inviting David to switch loyalty. He could be bought and you could trust him implicitly. Remember in Keys acceptance address after the last election, David received the first rousing thankyou? He won the election.
So…

BenWilson

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 11:04:27 +1200

Or they convey their feelings to the party and even if we get another National government, it's one that really does consider rising poverty to be an important problem that they have significantly failed to address, and begins to do something about it. That's democracy working, and that's the Opposition…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 10:45:05 +1200

flinching at the close...
They may never be able to stomach voting Labour or Green, but they might just be able to stomach staying home on election day, just this once.
Yes, here's hoping the average National voter doesn't have the stomach for the kill, when they wake up and…

BenWilson

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 10:34:16 +1200

@I/S
Looking back to 1969 – almost 50 years ago – for your political entrail reading probably isn't a good idea. It was a completely different world then.

That's true, but if you look short term you're approaching n=1 for your data.

@ScottY
People have been saying this for the…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 10:19:54 +1200

The Flimflam Man...
Well, in today’s mail my wife and I received a personally addressed, tidy and colourful letter signed by John Key on behalf of the National Party.
I hope National paid for the postage and it wasn't delivered for free as a legitimate communication from Parliament...

George Darroch

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 10:11:04 +1200

in today’s mail my wife and I received a personally addressed, tidy and colourful letter signed by John Key on behalf of the National Party. It makes a big deal about National’s success with (1) free GP visits & prescriptions for under 13s, (2) jobs & higher incomes, (3) “better education”, (4)…

Bart Janssen

Fri, 03 Jul 2015 09:27:20 +1200

National won the party vote

Nope. Labour lost the party vote.

The key fact of the last election is that National gained almost no extra support in total votes. What happened is Labour voters stayed home.

Yes the effect was the same, a National government, but realizing that Labour lost…

andin

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 19:29:04 +1200

NBR called it “The Confidence Man.”
Is that supposed to be a vote of confidence or a clever play on themes or summint??
Back in my day.... it meant a Con man...N2BT

simon g

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 16:54:45 +1200

History doesn't help us much here. In 1996 voters were playing a new game of MMP and the rules were unfamiliar ("Party vote? Sure, I'll have one of those as well!"). The result can be interpreted any which way – an anti-National majority, a conservative majority, a plague on all…

Russell Brown

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 15:56:58 +1200

“Key doesn’t actually believe Labour is in do-nothing mode – he just wants the public to believe that. Hence the interview.”

In NBR, behind a paywall? Please, even if half their audience (no matter how affluent) read the article that is still a tiny sliver of the electorate. You are…

izogi

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 15:30:06 +1200

I expect Key will ditch his underperforming Ministers, copy as many of Labour’s ideas as he can get away with, and go into the election with a new, refreshed team proposing big ideas for New Zealand’s new issues.

Well, in today’s mail my wife and I received a personally addressed,…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 15:16:34 +1200

The Key government has thus far had a tailwind not of their making.

– firstly the Clark government avoided getting the mainstream banking sector into the sort of trouble that happened overseas, whilst allowing the finance companies to act as a bush league safety valve for that sort of crazy.…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 15:04:37 +1200

Which suggests they could quite possibly continue to win all but a handful of electorates (or even all of them) and still lose the election.

bob daktari

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 14:57:35 +1200

For me, I expect Key will ditch his underperforming Ministers, copy as many of Labour’s ideas as he can get away with, and go into the election with a new, refreshed team proposing big ideas for New Zealand’s new issues.

I can see the logic in this but looking at…

william blake

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 14:49:21 +1200

"You were there to do a certain thing for us."

From memory it was a tax cut for the better off, paid for in the following years by taxing the rest with a GST hike and by dismantling,or privatising, public services and by racking up debt.

The reinvention is likely…

George Darroch

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 14:41:13 +1200

Also, the public still – inexplicably – loves them; remember, National won the party vote in every electorate bar three last year.

A plurality, perhaps. In Wellington Central and Rongotai the Greens and Labour both carved off about 30% of the vote each, with National and other parties splitting the…

Tinakori

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 14:37:39 +1200

"Key doesn’t actually believe Labour is in do-nothing mode – he just wants the public to believe that. Hence the interview."

In NBR, behind a paywall? Please, even if half their audience (no matter how affluent) read the article that is still a tiny sliver of the electorate. You are…

Hilary Stace

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 14:10:14 +1200

There is also the issue of a very compliant media. Ministers refuse to talk to the media if there is any chance of a tough interview and they get away with it. I remember a time when there were regular debates between government and opposition spokespeople, and if one didn't…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 14:00:24 +1200

Bar four (Kelston, Mana, Mangere, Manurewa) (plus all the Maori seats).

Grant McDougall

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 13:42:34 +1200

I'd like to see the Nats booted out too, but unfortunately they have big numbers on their side. They have a massive caucus and even if they loose a few, they'll still get by.
Also, the public still – inexplicably – loves them; remember, National won the party vote in…

ScottY

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 13:08:09 +1200

the public mood is turning against National because of perceived inaction on the big issues facing New Zealanders

People have been saying this for the last five years. Where's the actual evidence of a change in sentiment?

Sacha

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 13:02:39 +1200

If the left wants to win, they’ll have to think hard, and work harder.

And cooperate across parties. How's that going?

Idiot Savant

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 12:56:50 +1200

In fact, we’ve also done the numbers on third term governments in New Zealand. There have been five in the modern era (under Fraser, Holyoake, Muldoon, Bolger / Shipley, and Clark respectively). Two of the five got a fourth term.

And they're the oldest ones. Looking back to 1969 -…

Public Address

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 12:56:50 +1200

Discussion from blog post.