Public Address | Cafe | Speaker: The Future

Rich of Observationz

Tue, 15 Mar 2016 11:05:32 +1300

I believe that sort of thing gets you drummed out of the market research association lest you unveil the fundamental bogosity of much of their output.

linger

Tue, 15 Mar 2016 11:02:01 +1300

The framing of the question makes a huge difference. Was it an open-ended question, or was it a list of selected nominees?
In the latter case, the list would presumably be drawn up based on name recognition, e.g. a count of media references within the preceding year.
(It might also…

Brent Jackson

Tue, 15 Mar 2016 09:49:29 +1300

I think that any poll of the general public will suffer from limited knowledge. Many people would only be able to name English as a potential leader, because they don't actually know any other National MPs.

Rich of Observationz

Tue, 15 Mar 2016 08:59:16 +1300

They're polling the wrong electorate, surely? It's the National MPs who choose the leader.

Mr Mark

Tue, 15 Mar 2016 06:17:23 +1300

I've set out the details of various public polls conducted over the last 5 years on who people prefer as the next National Party Leader here ...http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/

andin

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 18:40:45 +1300

we’re all committed, in a helpless fashion, to the future.
Time isnt on our side at present. As for your questions...well... short termish seems to me. Our present way of organising ourselves is a rod we have created for our own backs, and its breaking us.
We cant carry on…

simon g

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 13:49:12 +1300

Playing the politician's game of not answering your questions but asking/answering mine instead, I'd suggest there's a continuing gap on the conservative right. A succession of failures (Christian Coalition 1996, Dunne's brief expansion of caucus post-2002, Colin Craig etc) but the voters are still out there – see any online…

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 12:35:51 +1300

Dunne is MP for the most white-bread part of the Wellington region. I think his constituency knows to vote for him over National and National know not to try to hard.

Harawira lost because Labour regarded keeping fat Germans out of NZ politics as more important than denying Key a…

Rich of Observationz

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 12:31:44 +1300

Will the Chinese economy avoid a banking collapse / FX crunch / rioting and if not, how will NZ parties cope with a new normal of bank failures, negative equity, zero demand for milk and a property crash?

Graeme Edgeler

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 12:16:05 +1300

Dunne's done, I think. I can't see that 750 majority increasing and the manner in which Labour, NZF and others coordinated in 2014 could be repeated.

Whom is Labour running against him? Does this factor into your conclusion at all?

John Palethorpe

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 10:41:35 +1300

2. United Future.

Dunne's done, I think. I can't see that 750 majority increasing and the manner in which Labour, NZF and others coordinated in 2014 could be repeated.

tony j ricketts

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 10:41:21 +1300

Could be the Maori Party walks from the coalition.
It will be in National's interest, as well as Maori Party's, if just a few months before the election they have a parting of the ways.
The Maori Party will have a little more cred that they are not National stooges,…

BenWilson

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 10:33:00 +1300

But we’re all committed, in a helpless fashion, to the future.

Great line, dude.

Bart Janssen

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 09:42:20 +1300

I think there's a question here that is missing.

Will the youth engage sufficiently to change NZ politics?

There are some odd things going on in politics at the moment. Sanders in the US has somehow (god knows how for such an old white guy) captured the imagination of a…

John Palethorpe

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 09:11:23 +1300

1. Post- Key National

National have some reasonable communicators, but nobody up to Key's standard. The Bill English puff piece in the Herald at the weekend emphasised his boringness (plus he's been there, done that, taken the 20%), Judith is too easily riled. Much like when Auntie Helen left, it'll…

Alex Coleman

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:51:32 +1300

Events dear boy, etc.

Coming up at some point soon, for example, is the whole water rights debate around Iwi and the Treaty and what 'ownership' means and how any such Iwi ownership will be recognised by the government, if at all.

How ACT, Labour, National, NZF and the Maori…

John Palethorpe

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:49:11 +1300

I'm a primary school teacher Ian, not a researcher or politico – my homework currently is devising multiplication problem solving questions, working out the national standards for the 6 year olds in my class and getting through Ka Whawhai Tonu Matou (one chapter before bedtime)

I'll give my reckons on…

Ian Dalziel

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:47:04 +1300

So here’s some questions about the future to consider, I’d be fascinated to have your opinion on them;
Why do I get the feeling we are helping you do your homework?
Perhaps you could put up your thoughts in the same space, as well…

…and surely any exposition on future…

Andrew Geddis

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:36:55 +1300

The Māori Party only has one electorate. If they lose that, they’re not in Parliament.

But the Māori Party can retain the Waiariki electorate while losing so much of its share of the list vote that it does not qualify for an additional list seat, thereby remaining in Parliament while…

David Hood

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:34:17 +1300

ACT

ACT
Can David Seymour revive the party in an electoral sense, and is he relying on peeling off soft National voters to do so?

(Admittedly this is based on the data for one election back) If your voters like National more than your own political party, and the majority…

John Palethorpe

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:33:46 +1300

I think that's the idea, that the Māori Party would partner with whoever is the majority party in a Government – beyond left and right, representing Māori. Uncertain if they can actually pull that off as a tactic though.

Graeme Edgeler

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:24:14 +1300

Maori
Will the Maori Party be able to continue its role as everyone’s coalition partner if they lose any more seats?

This one’s easy: no.

The Māori Party only has one electorate. If they lose that, they’re not in Parliament.

Also, the Māori Party cannot *continue* a role as everyone’s…

Public Address

Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:24:14 +1300

Discussion from blog post.