Public Address | Cafe | Speaker: The Brexlection

BenWilson

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 10:41:30 +1200

New thread on the results, btw

Rich Lock

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 10:28:32 +1200

caning the SNP in Scotland?

Do you know something we don't, Mystic Tom? As of typing, zero seats have declared north of Newcastle.

Rich Lock

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 10:26:47 +1200

It did insofar as UKIP has essentially been wiped out in the first two seats to declare. There's not much point voting for a single-issue party once the issue is done and dusted.

BenWilson

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 10:09:14 +1200

One thing is quite odd. It appears not to have been the Brexlection at all. Brexit barely figured at all. I'm mystified by this, but then I'm mystified by the whole Tory strategy of essentially trying to sleepwalk it in.

BenWilson

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 09:45:42 +1200

Where are you following it, Tom? I've resorted to Al Jazeera

Tom Semmens

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 09:41:58 +1200

Gosh! a newly minted left wing Labour party is caning the SNP in Scotland? Who would have thought?

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 09:38:32 +1200

UK Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is an complete fucking mess

It appears they would rather control a toothless opposition of say 150 MPs than govern

Tom Semmens

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 08:34:12 +1200

And Guyon Espiner interviews hardened neo-liberal fifth columnist Josie Pagani for “lessons for the left” in the UK election.

That woman wouldn’t know the left if she fell over it, got up, dusted herself off, and it then bit her on the bum.

Mike Treen, of the Unite! Union is…

John Palethorpe

Wed, 24 May 2017 10:59:25 +1200

The 2005 victory was reliant on the Liberal Democrats polling their highest ever, around 20% or so. They won't do that this time round.

Rich Lock

Wed, 24 May 2017 06:02:39 +1200

...although an increase in overall vote share/turnout for Labour over the 2015 Miliband result might get the Blairite haterz and wreckerz to STFU. For a day or two.

Ben Austin

Tue, 23 May 2017 21:04:53 +1200

Well, quite. Although there is a lot of speculation that a lot of the stabilising in support will largely end up stacking votes in safe Labour areas, not marginals.

Rich of Observationz

Tue, 23 May 2017 17:03:36 +1200

Looking at recent polls, reports of the demise of Labour seem to be a bit premature.

Ben Austin

Fri, 12 May 2017 20:36:34 +1200

In electoral news, yesterday 4PM was the deadline for candidate nomination, so the news is now full of amusing stories of crazy candidates or incompetent local parties who didn't file in time.

More seriously, the Times today reports that the Conservative Party central HQ have managed to filter out a…

Rich Lock

Mon, 08 May 2017 23:02:43 +1200

I'll just leave this here:

Yep, no way of spinning anything positive from that. UKIP has completely taken control of it's host body and is abandoning it's previous physical chrysalis form, and the electorate are too pissed off and apathetic to push the turnout above 30-35%.

Ben Austin

Mon, 08 May 2017 20:11:17 +1200

Luckily I don't? Anyway, the point was I literally went to a speech he made and my conclusion was that he is an amazing political performer, despite his many issues, which I hadn't really appreciated having not being in the UK during his premiership

Whatever some journalist thinks of that…

Tom Semmens

Sun, 07 May 2017 13:48:31 +1200

I went to his launch speech a couple of months back in London and it was really quite amazing to watch him in action.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-jeremy-corbyn-unpopular-labour-party-general-election-a7721561.html

Yes, well. Don't believe everything Polly Toynbee and Nick Cohen tell you.

Craig Ranapia

Sat, 06 May 2017 09:16:24 +1200

I'll just leave this here:

Local elections: Tories gain over 550 seats as Labour and Ukip votes plunge.

Ben Austin

Thu, 04 May 2017 04:22:34 +1200

Well it's official, we are going to be at with with the EU by lunchtime, now that the PM's accused Brussels of interfering in the election. This being the one she called without necessity and the one everyone has known for months would deliver a handsome Conservative Majority on a…

Rich Lock

Tue, 02 May 2017 21:44:24 +1200

No doubt. My wife talks about seeing him on telly delivering his keynote speech at the Labour party conference a year or so before the 1997 general election and getting goosebumps. And then her grandad 'Red George' turning to her with his wolrd-weary smile and saying 'just wait'.

Fool me…

Ben Austin

Tue, 02 May 2017 20:16:52 +1200

Well there are a lot of people out there who want, desperately, to believe in a Labour politician / leader and Blair has obviously seen this opportunity of Brexit to try and remove some of the poison around his name.

He's really good though and this is what almost makes…

Rich Lock

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 22:01:07 +1200

Blair still gets a lot of stick, but I think it is almost accepted now that he’s somehow in the process of being rehabilitated.

Jesus wept. All that's going to do is further entrench the utter loathing and contempt that huge numbers of people feel for him and his acolytes.

Ben Austin

Thu, 27 Apr 2017 21:36:24 +1200

Blair still gets a lot of stick, but I think it is almost accepted now that he’s somehow in the process of being rehabilitated. Probably due to Brexit. That process isn’t complete and won’t ever be complete for some people, but I have noticed in the last 6 months that…

Steve Todd

Thu, 27 Apr 2017 16:09:11 +1200

Also, I’d just point out that Lindsay Perigo (who?) was not the first to suggest a collective presidency for the US, it was unsuccessfully proposed by Edmund Randoph and others in the Federal Convention of 1787.

Lindsay Perigo (founding leader of the Libertarianz Party), in his magazine, Free Radical, was…

BenWilson

Thu, 27 Apr 2017 15:34:48 +1200

without giving any examples

You need one? Donald Trump. or Vladimir Putin, admittedly accompanied by ballot rigging.

There have occasionally been good presidents too, you know, and no shortage of party appointed fuxors. I can't say I'm totally convinced the system of directly electing presidents is broken. It is a…

Ian Dalziel

Thu, 27 Apr 2017 14:23:37 +1200

Trump is a closet Francophile – accordion to some sources....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOsGt4bEUyU

Steve Todd

Thu, 27 Apr 2017 13:45:40 +1200

Thanks for your comments, Rich.

I should have said, no *direct* role to play in filling single-vacancy public offices.

Bringing extremist candidates into power is in many ways an artefact of such unfair voting systems[.]

To me, what you are saying here is that any electoral system used to directly…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 27 Apr 2017 12:58:52 +1200

"the people" have no role to play in filling single-vacancy public offices

No, I'm saying that they have every role to play. They should elect a parliament, who choose a Prime Minister who commands the confidence of a majority. Given a fair voting system for MPs, this ensures the PM…

martinb

Thu, 27 Apr 2017 08:07:59 +1200

So I'll put Neill down for TLDr...

Neil

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 22:28:26 +1200

Mombiot pays out Blairite hypocrisy in rather compelling terms

Blair hasn't been PM for quite some time. I'm not sure that Corbyn will get any more votes by attempting to exorcise a ghost that most voters don't really care about.

It seems more to do with Labour infighting which probably…

martinb

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 21:01:39 +1200

From the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/25/vote-labour-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may

Mombiot pays out Blairite hypocrisy in rather compelling terms

Ben Austin

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 20:45:36 +1200

I would hope they don't drop below 200, but things are looking very weird. Recent polling puts them in with a shout in places like NE Wales. Their target seats list now seems vast and whilst they don't have the people to flood those seats, they might not have to.

Steve Todd

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 19:59:38 +1200

Okay. You're basically saying that, in all circumstances, "the people" have no role to play in filling single-vacancy public offices.

France and the United States are never going to give up their republican forms of government. Also, there will always be reasons, and a desire in certain circumstances, to elect…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 17:37:57 +1200

In the case of Ireland, the president is a mostly ceremonial post, and a "beauty contest" suffices. They could of course abolish the post and have the Taoiseach be head of state as well as government.

The US and France should adopt a parliamentary system, like the vast majority of…

Steve Todd

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 16:44:55 +1200

(all systems of directly electing a single leader, including NZ mayoral elections, are intrinsically bad, but conventional instant run-off STV is probably the least worst => I’d suspect Le Pen would have been eliminated at the 3rd or 4th round of such a system).

Certainly, FPP and two-round voting are…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 11:33:27 +1200

inevitability of the ascendance of the populist right in France

The Front National's first-round vote has varied between 10% and 17% over the last 25 years, so 21% is not a huge leap – and it's a long way from there to being electable.

The two-round system is a fairly…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 11:07:42 +1200

Are we seeing the revitalization of the UK Labour Party or its demolition?

Neither, probably.

The British haven't changed their 2-party structure since the introduction of universal suffrage, which resulted (after a delay) in many of the newly enfranchised voters finding a home in Labour and the Liberals becoming unelectable.…

Tom Semmens

Wed, 26 Apr 2017 07:39:05 +1200

The “Hillary is an evil warmonger wall street stooge but I don’t suppprt Trump” and “Macron is a elitist blah blah bringing on the victory of the FN but I don’t support Le Pen” is a peculiar form of kabuki that has real world consequences.

It would be nice if…

linger

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 22:55:15 +1200

Supporting Le Pen clearly correlates with Fear of the Other:
immigration, terrorism, insecurity (=non-specific fear, maybe including fear of violent crime, but possibly also including fears about economic security, including of course fear of “foreigners, coming over here, taking our jobs”).

Interestingly, “unemployment” by contrast (if you’re not already experiencing…

Kumara Republic

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 21:56:47 +1200

Seems those in actual economic distress aren't necessarily that hot on Le Pen the Younger, if this election issues chart is anything to go by.

From my basic French knowledge, here are the issues from top to bottom:

* Purchasing power
* Immigration
* Unemployment
* Terrorism
* Taxation
*…

Ben Austin

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 20:31:08 +1200

I'm not sure you can draw too much from UK media's interpretation of French politics, but I would say that everyone who isn't a member of UKIP has been worried about Le Pen for a long time, even though we in the UK pay less attention to French politics than…

BenWilson

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 14:02:32 +1200

a peculiar form of kabuki that has real world consequences.

Yup. I don't really have a dog in the Brexit fight and can't claim a strong opinion on it based on personal consequence for me, but it looks like a massive fail. The British are going to piss away something…

Neil

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 12:13:25 +1200

Anyone who isn’t some kind of neofascist wannabe does cast a ray of hope to those who aren’t treating it as a spectator sport that would be incomplete without a serious villain.

It seems to be a growing trend. Hard to know how much influence it has but it played…

BenWilson

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 11:56:38 +1200

Emmanuel Macron’s election simply postpones the inevitability of the ascendance of the populist right in France, because he offers no solutions beyond feeble tinkering with the status quo, yet across Europe the elites have hailed his election as a signal for business as usual. We shall see, I guess.

Yes,…

Neil

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 11:52:01 +1200

Since the evisceration of Corbyn by the establishment media…

There might be other more significant reasons for him being unpopular –

Thanks Hugo Chavez for showing that the poor matter and wealth can be shared. He made massive contributions to Venezuela & a very wide world

He and Mélenchon share a…

Tom Semmens

Tue, 25 Apr 2017 10:00:19 +1200

Whilst Tom may rail against the Guardian’s Comment Is Free pieces and the like post referendum as being evidence of anti democratic sour grapes…

Since the evisceration of Corbyn by the establishment media, I have come to think the polarisation of the British press is more apparent than real. Acceptable…

Joe Wylie

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:01:50 +1200

Why not join Scotland, for a stronger opposition, and a stronger democracy!

https://youtu.be/qxDJMn-534Y

Ben Austin

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 22:55:55 +1200

The smacking one would be closest in my experience yes, although for different reasons and no one is going to call someone a traitor to NZ for being pro or anti smacking.

Ben Austin

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 22:52:16 +1200

The media culture of the country also makes a huge difference too, comparing NZ to the UK. Whilst Tom may rail against the Guardian's Comment Is Free pieces and the like post referendum as being evidence of anti democraticsour grapes, he should also draw his attention to the pieces being…

linger

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 22:32:20 +1200

I can’t think of a recent New Zealand exampleSo, Springbok-tour-level divisiveness.
Yeah … not with referenda at least.
It’s not that NZ hasn’t had referenda hijacked and wildly misrepresented in the media by promoters of extreme ideological positions (e.g. the so-called “anti-smacking” referendum). We just haven’t yet subjected ourselves to…

Ben Austin

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 22:14:41 +1200

There has been idle chatter here and there of doing that, but think the closest they ever came was in the North East. But that was incredibly unlikely to happen for all sorts of reasons. That being said, the North East is basically more closely linked to Edinburgh than to…

Ben Austin

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 22:05:07 +1200

With respect, I think you're guilty of the same problems you've identified with the left. Coming out with "get over themselves" and "take a course in democracy 101" is exactly the same kind of sneering that you're accusing the Remain groups.

Now having lived through the referendum campaign I really…

linger

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 21:47:53 +1200

Pure flight of fancy I know (in that it would raise some fundamental existential questions), but it’d be interesting if the SNP started fielding candidates south of the border.

“Brassed off with Brexit?
Hate the smug Tory bastards, but can’t bring yourself to vote for the alternatives?
Why not join…

Tom Semmens

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 21:37:08 +1200

The remainers need to get over themselves and take a course in democracy 101. Their plan appears to be to punish Labour because Cameron called a vote that UKIP lied to win. The SDP/Liberal Democrats as always are showing what complete political morons the middle class are when they are…

Ben Austin

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 20:51:45 +1200

Scotland is going to be very interesting as well, if just for different reasons.

The SNP is polling well still, as it has for a few years at this point, so it is certainly possible that they take the last 3 seats held by other parties. It is also possible…

Ben Austin

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 20:37:42 +1200

Now speaking as someone who spent Saturday canvassing in the very safe Labour seat of Vauxhall for the LDs, it is winnable. But that doesn’t mean to say it is going to be won, as the snap election means that there hasn’t been time to plan a campaign. All I…

Ben Austin

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 20:32:47 +1200

It is going to be an insane election, is basically my view so far. The polling is so badly against Labour in England and Wales that, if applied on a seat by seat basis, results could be as back to the 1930s, let alone the days of Foot. Now it…

WH

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 17:54:29 +1200

While I don't overlook their mistakes, I respect what Tony Blair and Gordon Brown achieved and make time for what they have to say. I doubt Corbyn can attract enough swing and 'centrist' support to be a threat to the Conservatives, but he's Labour's leader fair and square.

Don't underestimate…

tony j ricketts

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 16:04:04 +1200

The Guardianista remainers come across as a bunch of self pitying whiners who still refuse to accept the outcome of the referendum, whilst using every weapon of intellectual snobbery at their disposal to paint Brexit supports as nostalgic little Englander morons.
sad but true – remember that The Guardian was…

BenWilson

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 12:29:17 +1200

Well, at least it is an alternative from more of the same crushing austerity and concentration of wealth in the hands of the 0.1% – which is all “new” Labour, the Conservatives, the French socialists/Gaullists and Hillary Clinton deign to offer the voters.

OK, I think I missed a beat.…

Tom Semmens

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 10:02:04 +1200

I mean say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, dude. At least it’s an ethos…

Well, at least it is an alternative from more of the same crushing austerity and concentration of wealth in the hands of the 0.1% – which is all “new” Labour, the Conservatives,…

Kumara Republic

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 03:39:52 +1200

As a worker with late-diagnosed autism in a sector that's going a bit "rust-belt", I'm well-informed enough to find myself closest to the Sanders/Corbyn camp.

While Andrew Little has been making the right noises about the Future of Work and retraining displaced and obsolete workers, I really hope he can…

andin

Sun, 23 Apr 2017 21:53:03 +1200

“The cure for the evils of democracy is more democracy.”

That would require the politicians to give a shit about the welfare of voters, especially those at the bottom of the societal heap.

And the voting population to be informed, and with the ability to look past their own pocket.…

BenWilson

Sun, 23 Apr 2017 14:06:26 +1200

For all the Fascism of the Daily Mail, the pro-Europe Chardonay socialists of the remainer chattering middle classes

...are just nihilists! I mean say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, dude. At least it's an ethos...

martinb

Sun, 23 Apr 2017 01:12:35 +1200

and in France the choice seems remarkably similar- an ex-banker, friend to everyone, stands for nothing or Marianne le Pen.

And isn't the developed world's working class issue that most of the manufacturing jobs have moved to China and poorer/low-cost nations, and mechanisation? Without any care to what might happen…

Rich of Observationz

Sat, 22 Apr 2017 12:02:13 +1200

To me the main issue with Blair is that he paved the way for Brexit, in the same way that Obama paved the way for Trump.

The ordinary working and middle class people have had their living standards and job security steadily eroded since the 80s. Politicians like Blair (Obama,…

martinb

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 23:08:32 +1200

Bingo for me.

The Labour Party is in disarray because Tony Blair thinks he's still prime minister and that there can not be any left wing faction. I can't think of any serious former NZ PM so keen to be involved in current politics. They have let go.

Corbyn picked…

Hilary Stace

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 20:45:52 +1200

I quite like many of the policies Jeremy Corbyn is talking about. In many ways he is being a radical left winger in the spirit of the historic reforming Labour Party. He is also the leader of one of the biggest left wing popular global movements – doesn't the Labour…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 15:42:19 +1200

The Remains of the Day...
or the Day of the Remains
What do you think the legacy of Corbyn and Momentum will be?
I'd like to think that they'd wrest the wheel from the blinkered driver just before the bus went off the cliff, but they'd have to get up…

maxy

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 15:32:01 +1200

I think if Blair hadn't followed blindly into Iraq, his legacy may be quite different.

Nick Russell

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 13:57:49 +1200

A mixed one. Iraq on the one hand, the end of an armed insurgency in Northern Ireland on the other. And over a decade of economic growth. As Tom Watson pointed out at the Labour Party conference last year, the party achieved a lot in its 3 terms of Government.…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 13:42:11 +1200

would these Blairites be the ones that won 3 consecutive general elections
leaving what legacy?

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 13:39:08 +1200

juglan concepts...
what are the political instincts of yer average walnut?
convoluted?
shellshocked?
oleaginous?

Nick Russell

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 13:26:42 +1200

The collapse in the Labour vote dates from and is the direct outcome of the failed chicken coup by the Blairite dominate UK PLP. Insofar as many of those Blairite cuckoo candidates seem poised to either stand down or lose their seats if Labour takes a bath this election, there…

linger

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 12:42:33 +1200

I suspect the intention of the walnut comparison is something like "to have at least the appearance of a brain"

Nick Russell

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 11:16:25 +1200

Ok, I'll regret asking I'm sure, but... what exactly are the political instincts of yer average walnut?

James Dunne

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:46:31 +1200

But that would require Jeremy Corbyn to be a competent politician and to have the political instincts of a walnut.

simon g

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:36:22 +1200

To Tom/Nick

Of course they had a choice. The reaction would have been predictable: wild vilification, by the same people who vilify them already. Then the noise would fade with the next issue ("events, dear boy, events"). Saying they had no choice is absurd, a real abdication of leadership.

They…

Nick Russell

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:32:53 +1200

One other thing. I have the nagging suspicion that the confidence being displayed by the likes of Corbyn and Diane Abbott is genuine. Not because they think they are going to win the election, but because it will result in annihilation of the Blairite wing of the Parliamentary party. It…

Tom Semmens

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:28:20 +1200

The Labour working class heartland is as split on Brexit as the rest of the UK population, a fact that appears to be completely impenetrable to the frankly anti-democratic remainers who demand Labour commits electoral suicide by surrendering it’s heartland to UKIP and the conservatives (which would be the reality…

Nick Russell

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:22:24 +1200

Corbyn-Labour not only voted for Brexit, but also for an early election

Not sure they had much choice. Think about the reaction if Labour had opposed an early election.

As for Brexit – this is about the only issue on which I have some sympathy for Corbyn. As far as…

John Palethorpe

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:18:19 +1200

I was trying to soften the blow. That said Winnie and Brash are more Farage and UKIP than anything else.

Russell Brown

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:06:59 +1200

I think "NZ First and Don Brash" would be a better analogy

Which kinda makes it worse.

Brent Jackson

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 09:50:05 +1200

It’s like finding out United Future and David Seymour are the only people who agree with you.

I think "NZ First and Don Brash" would be a better analogy, considering that United Future is a 1 MP party, and David Seymour is a current MP. Tony Blair hasn't been an…

maxy

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 09:41:30 +1200

Then there’s Northern Ireland, who haven’t got a power-sharing agreement at Stormont following the resignation and death of Martin McGuinness.

May be nit-picking but that wasn't the reason, it was co-incidental. There was a big bust up over a financial scandal which led to the recent elections, and Sinn Fein…

simon g

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 09:34:35 +1200

Corbyn-Labour not only voted for Brexit, but also for an early election. Repeat: this is only happening because Labour voted for it to happen.

Worth bearing in mind when the fingers get pointed in June.

Tom Semmens

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 09:30:23 +1200

"...Remainers, on the other hand, find themselves in a situation where the hated Liberal Democrats and Tony Blair appear to be the only people who represent them..."

if the tone of pro-Remain liberal publications like the Guardian are any guide to the actual mood of the hard core remain supporters,…

linger

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 09:17:06 +1200

How does 52% translate to "overwhelming support" for Brexit?
(I mean, apart from through using a nondemocratic FPP electoral system to skew the support within Parliament.)

Russell Brown

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 08:33:17 +1200

Remainers, on the other hand, find themselves in a situation where the hated Liberal Democrats and Tony Blair appear to be the only people who represent them. Yes, that is as bad as it sounds. It’s like finding out United Future and David Seymour are the only people who agree…

Public Address

Fri, 21 Apr 2017 08:33:17 +1200

Discussion from blog post.