Arrrgh.

Nah Mate, take the seeds out, much better burn. :-D
arduino controlled blinkies.
Yeah, I end up doing that too and I had such high hopes. ;-)

This may be the go, if you're using SAS...

Studying the voting across time is done to some extent, both in questions about how people voted last time, and also in actual comparisons for individuals…

Also, maybe a longitudinal study on how attitudes shift during elections?

I've been looking at it like that on my workstation, but I don't know how to give that out on the web. It would need some kind of java applet or something...

I could show a 3D model in 2D if I could rotate it…

Waiting with bated breath.
Will we be going 3D?
;-)
We could end up with a HollowGraph...
/coat...

Could be. Or maybe it isn't really that much of a distinction between the main parties' voters.. Can dig deeper here. Won't…

Well, OK, I can try. It's something that isn't important in the Labour/National distinction, but is important in the second dimension. In other words, it's not something that could distinguish Labour voters from National ones, but could help you tell NZF ones…

If you feed that sentence through a reading grader, it comes out at a (US) grade 12 (as in 6th/7th form – 17/18).

That's a higher level of literacy than most people can manage, so it'd quite possible that the…

Thank Steve, although it's far from being as complete as I'd like. I'll be fleshing it out a lot more over the next month.

As for the same plane thing, well the analysis itself looks for…

The…

Parkes argues (and he's hardly the only one) that it's not Corbyn's policies that will spell disaster for UK Labour, but the company he keeps and the things he is on record as saying.

The most interesting observations…

http://qz.com/491061/because-of-an-electoral-mishap-a-us-tax-vote-will-be-decided-by-a-single-woman/

It looks to me like LR is trimodal. In more dimensions that might actually break down, resembling a normal distribution more and more (obviously I mean the higher dimensional equivalent). That's what I'd expect...but I might be wrong.

Ah, that explains a lot.

I think the graph is fundamentally misleading in that it is based solely on the Labour National dimension, and winning the median of that means a party is pretty closed to being able to govern by themselves- it…

OK, but I'm not seeing that last graphic undermining the strategic positioning argument. It looks like there's a big chunk of people…

Sounds like one of those food colouring agents that was banned long ago in first-world countries on suspicion of triggering seizures.

I spent entirely too long this evening looking up what colour election orange was. I am, for the record, now using #f89828…

Why does that seem…

Is 4 the median there? I'd have thought it was 5, despite not being the mode.…

Keep it up, I'm reading it. I'm going to leave off these specific variables now*, since you're going hard on them. I'm going to take a different…

Of the 3101 entries in NZES
1587 voted…

Yup, at the very least, it's interesting to ourselves.

if you do botch things early on, you just go back to the code of the early stages,…

I fully expect, that if I argue on the internet about things that I have little specialist knowledge (for example, what I know about both political science and housing markets is only that of a broadly read member of the general public) I might miss something…

Some very interesting (albeit necessarily tentative) conclusions.

Me too. Part of the point of doing this on here is to get an idea what a "lay" audience can understand. By "lay" I'm meaning a clever and interested audience, who are not themselves statistics specialists,…

There's a heck of a lot of them. The number of potential coalitions is 2^(number of parties), roughly (every party is either in or out of the coalition). For the top 8 parties, that's 256 potentials. But of the probable ones…

How about modelling potential MMP coalitions as single entities? Be interesting to see where the two major left/right ones overlap rather than just use Nat and Lab as proxies.

I change the wording of that entirely. How people rated* themselves has little bearing on how they rated* Labour and National, but does…

Worked out how to do this. Still learning how to interpret the outcome though. Note that I had to scale up the arrows and placement of the texts, because otherwise they'd have been lost in a tight cluster…

It uses R, which is free, but you need to know the R language to use- though in theory you can just put in these commands and get a csv file…

verily

also not that smart in an MMP environment

What I'm saying is when they judge how left the Greens are, they evaluate how much like Labour the Greens are compared to how much like…

Just to make the conclusion quite clear here people moving from Labour to National were doing so while thinking National was…

http://www.nzssds.org.nz/system/files/2011+NZ+Election+Study+questionnaire.pdf

I'll give overall totals.

I excluded them from my positioning plots. I'm treating the left-right evaluations where they occur as numbers, rather than…

Some fascinating insights . I don't have SPSS so haven't had access to the NZES data (apart from photocopying a couple of chapters from Vowles' The New Electorall Politics a while back).

Am I right in assuming that those respondents who didn't know where particular…

It could be...but in this actual case I think we got something along the lines of what I'm suggesting.…

I think we need to exercise care on how we judge perception of position. There's lots of skew for the party positions and the mode will always be an integer and…

The median rating (so the mythic median voters perception) of National among those that voted National in 2008 and National in 2011 that “knew” National's position was 8.

The median rating (so the mythic median voters perception) of National among those…

Is grey everyone else beside the top 4 parties? Looks like it from the code :-)

Can you plot the variable coefficient positions too? All 9 of them?

Observations:
1 – National voters…

Conclusion:…

Well I kind of do have one conclusion. Self-evaluated centrists themselves see less political distinction between left and right. Tallies with the political science wisdom that they’re more influenced by valence issues than policy ones. Perceptions of honesty, competence, etc,…

Or maybe it's we who are confused? In this question, the entire thread hangs. Do we listen to them and find what they mean by left and right? Or decide what left and right means for them, and divide them into…

There's a very large number* of possibilities. Rob Salmond mentioned upthread what his method was. It's not crazy, but it does use National and Labour as the reference point and is thus, as Sacha comments, FPP flavoured. He…

That was one hypothesis I mulled. I decided I'd leave it unmediated by my perceptions, and see if you got the same idea.

So bottom left is…

Its kind of the opposite, its what twats do to ignore the real issues, a bit like LA LA LA l CAN'T HEAR YOU LA LA LA .........

Let me know if you don't understand how to interpret this graph...it's kind of overkill on your question :-)

In no way shape or form.

I think the only way that could be false would be if Labour was on or to the right of the center.

I’ve just been rereading through the 2015 budget thread, some good musings there. 2011 sure seems a very long…

I'm not sure what you mean. Can you elaborate?

What I really want to know is how far right or left of center Labour’s policies are

Yes, I'm…

What I really want to know is how far right or left of center Labour’s policies are and whether…

I don't know. Probably best to address that question to him. I'd say he feels there's strong evidence that…

You tend to get a lot of screeching, howling feedback, and the signal-to-noise ratio is appalling.

Does that…

ahem, but harking back:

I’m not optimistic, but I’m at least trying. It’s an extremely complex question. Perhaps precision is impossible. If so, I think that a data driven discussion is also impossible, and the whole thing…

Yup. I was actually jesting anyway. I didn’t expect you-know-who to take offense. I didn’t know subtweeting could be done outside twitter.

Yes, that's all true. I was subconsciously subsetting on people who are prolific in their opinions online.

a case of a few words painting a thousand pictures

Yes, words are sometimes the better tool, although in that case I think that it…

:- )

Saw your vid. Glad to read that he refloated. Hope he made it through the channel out to the ocean without incidence.
I've been priviledged to get up close to a whale (for filming purposes, thanks CBS) It is very special. Sticks with ya.

No sorry this is madness. A bunch of politicians follow me, I don't feel compelled to tag them if I want to comment in public about something they do. I reserve my right of…

To maintain an aloof abstraction about it is only possible if you:

1. Don’t actually care, or
2. Are naturally aloof, or
3. Are carefully maintaining aloofness for whatever reason.

Some people are just too damn busy to spare sufficient energy, some…

I'm a bit cynical about the "great electorate MP thing". You can come across as wonderful if you listen to what people say, agree with them vehemently and then do stuff all about it. As practised by…

Well, now you put it that way ...

With a couple of other things going on yesterday, I was feeling a bit…

It is interesting to note that a significant number of people (~80) put National at 0, and a similar number of people put Labour at 10. Were they the same people ?

Ben replied:

Interesting question…we’ve got the data. Any thoughts about how to answer that question? You…

Yes, you can jump off the swing anywhere. Also, you can jump back on the swing, from anywhere.

ETA: Presumably this means that you can also move around off the swing as well…

On this topic that's a big ask. I'm amazed it's as civil as it has been. We are, after all, talking about the most hotly contested political competition in the country, and how it should best be won. To maintain…

Yep.

For example: "Rule 1 in politics is "learn to count" 33 < 50".

Or his apparent assumption that none of us have ever heard of Anthony Downs' seminal thesis (most of his critics of the last week or so do, in fact, hold Pol Sci degrees)

Convenient, too, how New Labour's win in the 1997 UK General Election apparently had everything to do with Blair's Right turn and nothing whatsoever to do with his comically self-destructive opponents (Black Wednesday, a series of major Tory corruption and sex scandals, endemic Tory disunity over the EU...), but the NZ Labour / Alliance victory in 99 apparently had nothing to do with the political alternative being offered and instead was entirely down to Shipley Government ineptitude. Funny how that happens.

I'll be posting a considered (largely, but not necessarily entirely , snark-free) response on my sub-zero politics blog (although, given severe time-constraints, it might not be for a week or so – by which time everyone will have lost interest). But I'd really like to get to the heart of things and move the debate along a bit.

In the meantime, here's Stephanie Rodgers' quick reply... https://bootstheory.wordpress.com/2015/08/26/a-quick-response-to-rob-salmond/

* As opposition, I should add, in case that’s fodder for rebuttal. So yeah, since 1987 – : The Cold War, Iran-Contra testimony , The Last Emporer, Wall Street, Got my mind set on you, King’s Cross fire, Black Monday. No majority. We…

I said as much in my latest comment to her. It probably wont get in but her last piece is well worth reading. Dita De Boni, Her last Herald article
Another good writer pushed under…

Except that Labour didn’t technically win that election, or any subsequent election for that matter. Labour haven’t won an election since 1984. In 1999, even with Alliance support,…

I suppose I am a bit late with this news but I am so pissed off that I had to post it somewhere.

Dita De Boni ‏@KeepingMum Aug 9
Hi all. In answer to questions,…

To further complicate it, I think it would be a mistake to treat non-voting as one destination. As measured by the data, a ACT supporting non-voter may be in a very different voting space to a Internet/Mana one.

Snark exists on Twitter so some of us (ie, me) don't come and ragepost all over your nice polite threads, Russell. You should be grateful for it. ;)

I was just a bit confused about the "subtweeting" bit. Surely one can snark on Twitter in response to a patronising article without having to tag the author,…

Yes, the swinging voter can jump off the swing. I'm interested in the possibility that that is the more likely outcome, that being determined to vote but unsure of who to vote for might seem less rational…

Also, for the NZES 2014 survey data, of the 2835 surveyed people. 90 fewer voted for Labour this time than last time (same people in the survey casting…

...and a doddle for someone with a surname (and profession) starting with a B.

:- )

I'm not saying that the non-vote is identical to the voting population. Apart from anything else, they don't…

Also known as "criticism".

No, agreed. The shift definitely began with Smith. I think Rob was wrong about that and it’s quite okay to say so.…

It’s not so much that I don’t appreciate the nature of the discussion itself

It’s just that I guess I’ve become accustomed to wanton misrepresentation in the form of snipes like this only ever (rarely) being part of the discussion – not the leading posts:…

They're personal posts by Rob, who contracts to Labour. I'm interested in…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_proof

Or have a scratch around for that the moral compass. It’s not as if the ocean isn’t warm and beckoning, there’s nothing stopping anyone…

Douglas also continues to maintain he is a socialist (and the only real socialist…

Amen!

Well yours and everyone with an opinion. My own arse was the one I was worried about the smell of, TBH :-)

It’s not that pundits aren’t probably more likely to have an informed opinion about the classic definitions of left and right.…

Island Bay isn't an electorate?

A lot of that is because Green (and maybe NZF) voters support the Labour candidate rather than their party candidate (NZF didn't contest…

Well I don't insist and yes that is my, very simplified, definition.
And notrather than out of someone's arse.By which I gather you mean mine. If it comes out of the arse then it is either shit or…

Interesting question...we've got the data. Any thoughts about how to answer that question? You want to know specifically…

I don't think it means nothing. It just doesn't mean the same as what you mean.

Do…

That argument, mutatis mutandis, applies to the Chinese names/foreign buyers debacles. Perceived to be racist, therefore racist.

Ditto :-)

It's also interesting…

Like I said earlier, with reference to the video "Humans Need Not Apply",
They shoot horses, don't they?.

we are heading towards
Life vs Death

So you end up with…

That sounds awfully like National apart from the ideology part, that is run by Steven…

There will inevitably be differences among the leftist and centrist supporters of a progressive / social…

Yeah, that list of "X is better than Y" was the most depressing thing about the…

In this scenario, our Labour Leader and his/her shadow cabinet will hide inside a giant…

and also without being in Government. From the other thread, my pick of what Rob has written/amended/collaborated/compromised on thus far here was this:

Let’s start with your proposed purpose for Labour, which…

Firstly, the NZ Parliament is defined by the Party Vote, and we STILL haven't confronted the disparity of 'safe' Labour…

People of Māori descent make up ~15% of the…

Been meaning to answer this. So we've got 2 ways of deciding if someone…

But if your attitude is that concerned leftists are 'the kamikazi wing of the Labour party', you may end up with…

No there’s plenty of data.

ETA: Please note the red and blue are Mana and Maori parties...couldn't think of a color for them.

http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-results-and-reporting/2014-general-election-voter-turnout?electorate_name=All+electorates&voter_descent=2

And there is evidence that party support is in age bands

http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2008/05/political-par-9.html

And ethnicity

http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2008/05/political-par-7.html

So if anything it needs some evidence that the voting population is different to the electorate population to make the 1/3 1/3…

At least in this particular dimension. Auckland is between Sydney and Melbourne, if you take only latitude into account.

And I see Maori Party, NZ First, and United Future inhabit the 'space' between Lab and Nat.

But I do want to take issue with the opening statement around 1/3 left 1/3 right and the middle deciding the election. That is absolutely only the case if the voting population,…

use two underlines on each end, not one

That said, if you compare medians instead, the median self reporting is 5, but for Labour it’s 3 and National it’s 8. So the median opinion on Labour’s position is that it’s closer to the self-reported median…

Anyway, Rob, on the thing about

Lab+Greens

If Green is to the left of Labour, and swingers have to be centrists, how come National voters can defect to Green without going through Labour?

Folks votes is driven by tons of stuff: sex appeal, parties' stated intentions, how their parents…

Arse, I notice the…

The colored lines are the mean positions that the sample put the parties at. I also put on the mean of the self reported positioning – it has the solid black line.

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/may/political-centrist-voters-051515.html

The US is both legally and culturally a less private environment than NZ. There's no effective data protection law, for instance, and a the primary system means a large number…

yep, there's the unpredictable factor.

OK, but the median is 5, because this is an integer value and that's by far the…

See "Median Voter Theorem" for the reasons why.