While that’s a clever one liner, the responses to the comments below just weren’t up to scratch;

land and housing should not be sold to non-New Zealand residents or citizens. If you want to buy…

Not when it's said with what appears to be heavy irony.

No matter what his and his family’s housing situation, he was vilified based on his nationality/country-of-origin. Vilified based on his size and weight. Vilified based on his accent. Vilified based on his…

Yes problem. Dotcom was not allowed to buy his mansion and continues to rent it from the owners.

But a Chinese company (actually owned by a kiwi, married to an MP of all things) bought a farm? HOLY SHITBALLS! And not because racism.

Which one…

that's how smart they are, yes.

But we're "not racist" in employment, "not racist" in justice, "not racist" in education, "not racist" in our wars, our news, or our working out where people are from by the spelling of their name. Not…

What it looks like now, in a world where "no one is racist", because they're all so careful about what they say in public. How because "no one is racist" all the bad things that happen to minority groups are obviously…

Not the first time that one's been rolled out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBYWbODB_E0

Russell, cleanup on aisle 2.

Some groups are less warlike than others. Of all the major civilizations China has been the most peaceful, the…

WTF??????

How have Chinese attitudes to women been an issue in NZ????? Give me one example???

Smoking???

FFS

For a lot of reasons, I think algorithms are pretty much in charge – hence the unwind will be pretty much uncontrolled. Flash crash – all dominoes down in the blink of an eye.

But, that's a wild guess.

Any real reason to think it can't? Both seem like they could perpetuate the control of the world by the finance system all the way until everything belongs to the tiniest imaginable group,…

Such a forever increasing value (intrinsic or otherwise) only doesn't 'pop' provided the QE/ZIRP music keeps playing. Or, there is a massive, world-wide consensus on debt…

True- –but is…

Hard to say. You can always build. A ghetto might not stay a ghetto. It's…

Maybe. But however they get their value, it's intrinsic. It's not pure speculation that makes them valuable. Van Goghs are rare, culturally important, incredibly famous. Not to mention beautiful, ground breaking works of genius.…

Well, it's only clear that it was a bubble at that point. So the absence of popping (yet) doesn't make it not a bubble.

Also, a sudden sharp downturn isn't always indicative of a bubble. We could drive down the prices…

A better example of a market good would be secondhand cars, which rise and fall in price according to supply and demand. If there’s a shortage of cars, the price goes up, but only…

There is no consideration, though, of global politics- the enormous influence that even a small slice of one…

Correct. But purely from an investment/capital risk point-of-view – trying to time/pick/enter before the peak of any market bubble is only really a strategy for those…

1) Our country (and the British social order which it follows) has always had a racial hierarchy, but some of us are not happy to face that reality. The statistics show this painfully clearly.

2) We have…

You're right, it's only a bubble if it pops. And I think I earlier explained why I think it will pop. As you point out, the question is 'how soon'. And my response (were I a highly leveraged house…

Suits me, that’s basically what I said mine was. Let’s put it here for completeness:

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is…

Hey JH ---Pakeha New Zealandres are about 70%? of NZ

is that minority status.

There have been more white immigrants from UK + South Africa etc than Chinese over the past…

“Greedy kiwi homeowners shutting out their fellow countrymen from home ownership by selling out to foreign interests”

The source of the money, or the race of the person with the money should be irrelevant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

And I've always liked this graphic representation;

https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/stages_in_a_bubble.html

And I'd go with the theory that "intrinsic value" of our housing stock relates to affordability – the median house price: median household income works for me.

BIG NUMBERS

__The scale of our housing market was revealed today in the March 2015 data out from the RBNZ. The value of all houses is 'now' $791.2 bln, and that value grew by $66.5 bln in twelve months. That is value growth going up at…

I can’t easily define it – this…

I've been enormously conflicted about this.

Asian poverty rise

Issues:

1) China's ability to be a big fish and increase its influence over New…

If it's…

What do you define as the "fundamentals" of a local housing market? Do you mean a measure of median house price to median income – as this seems to be the metric gaining traction in the housing affordability debate both here…

The way I look at it, pretty much every country in the world went into a bubble in the early 2000s, Australia and New Zealand didn't really come down like other countries did. One could argue at length about reasons (I…

No it didn’t. Auckland’s market (median house price) peaked in Dec 2007 – reduced thereafter – only regaining that peak number in October 2009. Lehman Bros went down in September 2008. That median in Auckland remained quite…

Only problem is: How soon? We've been hearing that for over a decade now. Longer from quite a few economic commentators.

Especially since this continued right through the sub-prime bubble elsewhere, through the GFC. It makes me think that our understanding…

You might well be lucky you didn't.

When most people say they have "the capital to invest" – they normally mean they have "the capital to borrow". Our borrowing here in…

Yeah, nah, it's not personal. Beyond some newsy articles and the wrath of usual suspect commentators, things look to be about exactly the same as they’ve always been. Which…

Exactly. Something that could be researched by Labour, if they bothered.

All this purported concern about kiwis having access to housing stock while ignoring the root issue – property speculators and rentierism – really doesn't sound…

I think you're confusing ideas around disparate impact discrimination and racism, which differ in important ways. If you're going to…

Exactly.

I've heard a…

This makes sense if you view racism as a matter of intent. The pure in heart can't be racist.

Many people though…

Nup, more because they are sensitive land parcels and/or worth more than $100million See the OIO webpage

Also people who want to rent a house in Auckland. In short, everyone in Auckland, beyond the age of about 18.

Well....not at the moment, and not amongst urban liberals, amongst whom I mostly hang out and who are mostly on this blog. But it wasn't so long ago the the Crafar farms…

that was my concern at the outset – and sure enough, days later what are we talking about?

Hard not to see this as a massive stuff-up, whether the alienation angle was planned/accounted for, or not.

From here (which is, admittedly, some way away), it appears…

Right, I get what you mean now – good point!!!

Katharine, I'm not taking sides on this. I'm simply dismayed that Kan, a writer I generally admire, joins so many others in ignoring the growing proportion for whom, regardless of ethnicity, home ownership is a fading dream. If his message goes 'over their heads' it's because it's…

I'd say most of us agree that ugly nativism is a symptom of globalisation benefiting only those at the very top. But at the…

Oh, it’s Kan, actually.

I might be an idiot (i.e., not on your level by your standards along with all those other masses of NZers out there), but am I am on ‘your side’ in terms of the injustice of this free flow of foreign direct capital investment…

Seems like another example of typecasting to me? Just what category do these "significant and growing proportion of NZers " belong…

"I think the whistle-blower I dealt with did Aucklanders a favour and put this information into the domain out of a sense of public duty. I think Aucklanders owe that person a debt of gratitude."

The…

I'd say it went right over the heads of the significant and growing proportion of NZers whose names don't, and probably never will, appear on a property title deed.

Chris Trotter refers to it in his recent comment;

http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2015/07/15/perilous-whites-labour-china-and-the-liberal-intelligentsia/

This is a useful one – although I disagree with the suggestion to only impose the stamp duty to Auckland properties – we really don't want to exacerbate the problem to a nationwide…

The columns themselves might say different things, but the comments underneath don't.

(I liked Raybon Kan's piece, although (because?) it clearly went over lots of heads).

I’m really sorry you had to read that. Took my eye off the ball a bit there. jh is not welcome here.

Like a yellow star or something for the PRCs, that'd work; and silver ferns for 'local' Chinese; but when the line is blurred, make them do tests to make sure they *can't* speak Mandarin. Then put the locals into a special…

You don't mean that the way it sounds, right?

I’ve…

I don't really get your point and I'm not sure of its relevance.

Hear, hear.

I don’t feel inclined to add much to this except my support for Tze Ming, Keith, and others who are exposing this for what it is. It feels like a giant step backwards.

Aren’t we better…

Funny because I've been thinking of joining. I'd like to support a party that is realistic about the effects of foreign…

Yes, and in terms of my own personal interests in my ethnic community’s self-respect and safety, there will be two kinds of views.
a) non-racist ones.
b) racist ones.

I do Phil Twyford and the Labour Party a…

Asian Vote – Keith Ng (via the Listener)

http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/have-the-property-wars-become-racisms-new-frontier-20150713-gialms

Well, bother. You may be right. I’m using Firefox and I’ve told it to use NZ English first, then English, then US English if it really has to. Still getting the correction, though.

[edit] Aha!…

Are you assuming its 'American' ,because of your belief that Americans 'spell funny'. They could be Canadians.
This meme has revealed deeper xenophobia than we thought.

After all , who knew 'Australians' are the brains…

yep. by comparison try looking for disabled people as a subgroup.

Well in marketing speak I guess you'd call it segmentation. If a group is not disposed to buy your…

I’ll be interested on any stats (ha! ha!) on the heritability of voting patterns. The fact we have more political parties than…

I doubt it’s all we have. Labour will be doing their own polling, and the party people will at least…

Okay, five minutes later, you're right: if by 'not many', you mean there are 'not many' Chinese people *in* the NZES 2011. There are 103 'Chinese, Indian or other Asian' respondents in the dataset.…

Yes. You can also specify your ethnicity; most of the entries in this category are people writing 'New Zealander' in a state of high dudgeon.

Damn you McLaughlan, now you've got me downloading microdata past my bedtime. But I also just had a peep at the questionnaire and the ethnicity categories only reach to "Chinese, Indian or other Asian".

Based on the 2011 NZES survey, not many. That's a National or Did-Not-Vote bunch of voters.

I'm fairly sure that's not our spellchecker. I think it'll be your American-made web browser.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Up to a point. I think we can expect Rob to do precisely that when he's still fronting…

Much like the Labour or National voters id problem
– how can we pick them on the street?

Yes, it should give blue squiggly lines under "National", just for balance.

Maybe over one of those missed cups of coffee eh?

[edit] UK English would be fine #justsaying

Funny thing is, JC* was probably right all along – is it really Bayesian analysis, when you're just working out proportions? We didn't get any juicy details like what distributions he set for his priors just before MCMCing it all.

*Jim Cathcart that is, not the more famous JC.

Yes indeed and I would see anonymity and redaction an important part of the process, especially with respect to qualitative data. The goal here is to act ethically and…

Damn straight, and I've let Twyford know that I'm personally disappointed in him as a person as well as Labour as a party.

If I posit that Chinese buyers will cluster round particular real estate agencies based on previous personal experience, referral by a friend or a willingness to deal in Mandarin (or Cantonese), would I be accurate? And that some agencies will have lots of…

I'm embarrassed to be a Pakeha right now. But relieved I haven't voted for this lot (nor any party that would have Brash, either).

I like the idea of including priors it makes a lot of sense. But I think Bayesian analysis has to do its time on the wheel of epistemological rigour.

i) The scope and impact of assumptions made in Bayesian analysis still need some testing, for…

It might not be "fair", but that might be his deal with his employer. Presumably you've occasionally done research that you weren't allowed to just release to the world without…

It may be. But it can only go horribly right if it is maintained. "Orewa" is shorthand, not just for a single speech, but for an election strategy that National kept pursuing…

Private researchers often have no choice, though. You can't freely give away IP that belongs to other people. It's not on Rob to let the method out…

Aussie Labor is voting in favour of the ban on reporting cases of abuse of imprisoned asylum seekers, including children. New Zealand Labour is not quite that monstrous at present.

Perhaps I am old fashioned in this respect but I don't hold researchers who do this in high regard. When it comes to politics especially on contetious issues with racial implications, this is writing a credibility…

Which is worse, conspiracy or incompetence? I mean, in my post, I concluded the former. The latter still is pretty painful though.

The most chilling part is that it might work. But I do have to ask how…

Argh! I thought I’d selected all the text except for the footnote, which wouldn’t select, so I just pasted in what selected + footnote.

I’ll fix that now. Sorry!

Man, for Chinese immigrants…

Yes, exactly.

James Cameron was buying what was deemed as sensitive land (farmland over 5ha or over 3ha near waterways)…

No they fucking can't — if the shocked pearl-clutching I've seen from certain quarters over The Herald doing what The Herald does with monotonous regularity is at all sincere, well congratulations. Whoever is…

It isn’t. Whether the majority of the foreign funding is of mainland China origin isn’t any more of a concern to me – all QE/ZIRP sourced funding that…

People think they're getting the probability of the null hypothesis, given the data, something they…

Perhaps. Or more likely because it was the phenomenon that was under investigation: What is the level of non-local-resident Asian investment in NZ? It's something you'd want to know. I'd be surprised if the data…

__CLSA analyst Nicole Wong said the latest moves will discourage mainland Chinese property buyers in the city, "hence removing a very meaningful portion of demand." The…

We followed some advice – especially about estimating Asian ethnicities – from prominent US academic studies. I won’t be describing that process further, as that is sensitive IP for Labour.

We probably can't really expect Rob to take responsibility for what Labour wanted out of all of…

Hell yes. It's quite literally transformed statistics in the last 20 years. When I first studied stats in the early 90s it was a promising research direction. When I just finished my undergrad degree in stats early this year…

1. The specific choice of Chinese sounding names would be likely to provoke outrage for its racial profiling approach
2.…

Personally, I’d guess that all these explanations are true: that Chinese New Zealanders (on average) buy both homes and investment properties more than other New Zealanders, and that there are foreign property investors of Chinese ethnicity. But that’s a guess: these data don’t tell…

a) "There will be toxic side effects, but we'll go ahead anyway because the wider issue needs to be addressed, and this will certainly make headlines"

b) "We want the toxic side effects"

The latter…

Is there a separate statistical explanation for how you got from the imputed ethnicity to the asserted non-residency of house purchasers?

It would be surprising if…

As someone who belongs to another ethnic minority where people stereotype about money and leap to conclusions based on names, this…