Public Address | Cafe | Speaker: Honest Bastards & Dishonest Cowards

BenWilson

Sun, 12 Jul 2015 23:41:14 +1200

I was hoping you might know of a way out of this financial BS we have been lumbered with.

Nah, sorry. I've only got ideas. It's definitely not an area I specialize in. I'm aware that there's alternate economic theories about money and they barely get the light of day…

andin

Sun, 12 Jul 2015 16:07:26 +1200

I’m not saying them to be comfortable

Missed my point completely. I was hoping you might know of a way out of this financial BS we have been lumbered with.
And then you say this I’ve gained degrees in the mathematics required to understand it over the last few years.…

BenWilson

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 23:49:59 +1200

Nor should it. But I would bet it's at mate's rates.

Kumara Republic

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 19:12:31 +1200

Curia does not work for free. Plentiful Nat donations end up in Farrar’s pockets.

As it stands, NZ basically has the best democracy and free speech money can buy.

Sacha

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 18:04:17 +1200

Curia does not work for free. Plentiful Nat donations end up in Farrar's pockets.

BenWilson

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 17:43:32 +1200

Totally. Also the demographic it's traditionally stood for has less money, so less free time to give, quite aside from money. It's a lot to ask.

Deborah

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 16:45:38 +1200

Yes... 'though one of the difficulties I have in asking people to do work for free is that I feel that we should value people's labour.

BenWilson

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 15:51:50 +1200

I should also note that this is also quite a big opportunity for whichever entrepreneurial left wing statisticians take up the challenge. Having the ear of the PM has done DPF no harm, quite the contrary, it's a big thing for his business and his CV. But that's one of…

BenWilson

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 15:43:48 +1200

Labour hires UMR, apparently

I'm pretty sure they do, as I went to a focus group myself that was clearly Labour sponsored, with the aim of trying to get insight into how to market David Shearer better. I was the token unemployed guy, but probably a bad choice for any…

BenWilson

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 12:52:13 +1200

I'm not singling you out. It may feel that I disagree with everything you say, but that is not the case. I just don't contest things I agree with. I've contested things with others too, but in this case you decided that you wanted to defend your trench in which…

Sofie Bribiesca

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 12:48:55 +1200

If nothing else Bart It has got me interested in QE and I think you can both be right. It is obviously not easy to get one's head around as there is much on the internets that point in both the directions both of you are taking. There is nothing…

Bart Janssen

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 12:05:01 +1200

The Bart/ Ben debate is good

No it's tedious and boring and does nothing for anyone.

Sorry guys I shouldn't have bothered. Ben argues with everything I say on this site now – leaving me feeling very much like there is little point in trying to contribute. It takes too…

Sofie Bribiesca

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 11:58:48 +1200

*sigh*

Oh, big effort llew40 . I'm hanging in there to see where it leads ;)

I'm over reading QE for dummies now and still cant see who is right although BW is convincing. The Bart/ Ben debate is good food for thought.

llew40

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 10:04:14 +1200

*sigh*

BenWilson

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 09:50:56 +1200

The important thing to understand is that it is exactly the same as printing dollars.

No, the important thing is to realize that they are not the same. They are entirely different mechanisms for increasing the money supply. They are conflated by many but they are not the same -…

Bart Janssen

Fri, 10 Jul 2015 09:20:36 +1200

It takes 10 seconds to discover this by reading only the first Wikipedia paragraph on the subject, which is the barest minimum of research you’d expect someone to make when trying to comment intelligently on the issue.

Here you go Ben because the wiki page is not the clearest.

And…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 23:35:09 +1200

Or don’t. Or disrupt the game. But I agree that complaining about the game doesn’t seem to work.

As in this sort of 'disrupt the game'?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=0MY2zr4Weac#t=521

Kumara Republic

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 22:41:32 +1200

ETA: Oh, and progressive taxes aren’t as progressive as they sound. It’s a perennial problem that the richest people on the planet don’t pay them. They’re middle class taxes. If you want to understand why the middle class is hollowing out around the developed world, perhaps looking at the way…

Ieuan Wickham

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 22:34:21 +1200

If you can't beat them, join them.
Or don't. Or disrupt the game. But I agree that complaining about the game doesn't seem to work.

Sacha

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 21:10:14 +1200

Labour hires UMR, apparently, Not so cosy as Davy and the PM's weekly chats. Who knows what they do with the information we all help pay for?

BenWilson

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 20:44:53 +1200

And if not, what did they spend their money on instead?

I bet they do spend money on it. But Curia is a whole nother level. That's getting a tame and well organized research organization all to themselves. I think the Left is only going to compete by doing something…

BenWilson

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 20:43:25 +1200

I wish I found some comfort in your many words I dont.

Me neither. I'm not saying them to be comfortable. Even if it's a crap game, it's still the game that has to be play.

andin

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 20:24:05 +1200

If you can’t beat them, join them. This is a game both can play.
Except its not a game.
I wish I found some comfort in your many words I dont.
In a many and varied ways globally we are in a watershed of fecal rivulets headed for a big…

Sacha

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 20:18:36 +1200

Has Labour done similar research to work out which dead rats it will need to swallow?

And if not, what did they spend their money on instead?

Sacha

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 20:16:36 +1200

"Playing the game by the rules laid down by your opponent is a sure-fire way to lose, lose and lose again"

First principles: what are the rules laid down by the left's opponents?

BenWilson

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 19:58:12 +1200

Has Labour done similar research to work out which dead rats it will need to swallow?

I'd like to know this too. It seems to me that railing against the influence of marketing in politics is futile. If you can't beat them, join them. This is a game both can…

andin

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 18:42:13 +1200

the public will overlook the most dreadful shit in favour of who it thinks can run the country.

Thats the scariest thing of all.

BenWilson

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 18:05:06 +1200

No you are wrong Ben, quantitative easing is in fact printing more notes and putting them into circulation.

No Bart, you are wrong. It takes 10 seconds to discover this by reading only the first Wikipedia paragraph on the subject, which is the barest minimum of research you'd expect someone…

Russell Brown

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 17:52:10 +1200

They need to focus on identifying ways to depict the Key government as dirty, crony-capitalists. It really isn’t that hard since that’s what they are.

Here’s a possible start: “For the price of a shipload of sheep to Saudi Arabia, you could instead get x number of doctors.”

That's not…

Russell Brown

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 17:49:28 +1200

n the same way that Republicans are painting themselves into a demographic and constituency corner, my concern is simply that Labour are appealing to less and less people, in the name of principles that sadly no longer seem to be relevant to many NZers, and that gaining broader appeal needs…

Bart Janssen

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 15:58:33 +1200

quantitative easing, which is a whole different thing

No you are wrong Ben, quantitative easing is in fact printing more notes and putting them into circulation. Yes it is possible to specifically hand those new notes to specific groups.

However, every dollar you print in NZ will instantly change our…

BenWilson

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 15:30:45 +1200

If the main problem with National’s management is wealth redistribution from the poor to the wealthy, then a progressive tax is the most obvious remedy.

It is. But it’s by no means the only one. It is also what we already have, something offered by all parties except those of…

BenWilson

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 15:28:32 +1200

Your arguments against that statement are simply arguments for the sake of argument.

No they're arguments for the sake of thinking about things, rather than stating strong unjustified opinions as if they are facts to shut down debate. If we are forced to think inside your framework then the range…

Graham Dunster

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 15:13:35 +1200

I quite like this man's overview of the political and financial situation in which we find ourselves – http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/07/greece-financial-elite-democracy-liassez-faire-neoliberalism?CMP=ema_632

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 13:05:50 +1200

a financial transactions or Tobin tax, which neatly address the Double Irish Dutch Sandwich issue

How? Companies will just book their financial transactions through a non-participating state, using a contract for differences or whatever if they need to. And a transaction tax has to be levied at a fairly low…

Steve Barnes

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 11:58:26 +1200

The other possibility remains that cynicism and disillusionment

Don't forget fear, fear of having to cough up some of your "Hard Earned Money™" like a tax on the capital gain of your property portfolio or having to pay proper wages to the workers of your cleaning company that services your…

Steve Barnes

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 11:33:47 +1200

Oh noes....
My computer seems to be going backwards
The calculation of our National debt has many variables, one of which is the fact that we do not borrow in NZ dollars. Other factors include foreign investors, who expect to make a buck or five, "income" from the…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 11:07:04 +1200

I think the electorate has moved. And the nature of political persuasion has changed. If Labour believes they can drag a majority of voters ‘left’ through persuasion and through the abilities of great political leadership, awesome. I fear that way lies more electoral pain however. In the same way that…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 11:02:41 +1200

If the main problem with National’s management is wealth redistribution from the poor to the wealthy, then a progressive tax is the most obvious remedy. It would be hard or impossible to direct the other revenue streams suggested by Ben in the same way: e.g. currency devaluation is effectively just…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 10:59:55 +1200

Hence my objection to user-pays which is regressive as well.

Yet somehow when user-pays applies to those at the top, it suddenly becomes a 'tax on hard working Kiwis'. Think proposals for congestion pricing in Auckland to relieve traffic.

Kumara Republic

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 10:56:55 +1200

If you look at the Treasury graphs on social spending – health, education, welfare – the trend is up and steady over time. I think my original point stands. The idea that National has somehow gutted social spending is wrong.

Tinakori: you might be right. If anything it's been redirected…

Bart Janssen

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 09:34:07 +1200

you’re arguing for a more progressive tax regime

Well yeah. I'd hardly consider more regressive taxation as reasonable. Hence my objection to user-pays which is regressive as well.

Essentially my point is that Labour needs to accept that there is a contract between the voters and the government.

The government…

linger

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 09:21:47 +1200

So, more specifically, you’re arguing for a more progressive tax regime.
I agree. If the main problem with National’s management is wealth redistribution from the poor to the wealthy, then a progressive tax is the most obvious remedy. It would be hard or impossible to direct the other revenue streams…

Bart Janssen

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 09:12:47 +1200

I’m saying it’s not the only option, which you claimed when you said.

For any government that wishes to provide significant services to its public taxation is the vast majority of its income.

Yes there are other forms of income, but if you want to provide services you need to…

llew40

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 09:09:59 +1200

Hmm, read this interesting post and thought, you seem to be arguing that Labour has been campaigning as National-lite, and that this is a sure-fire way to continue to lose, and that they should revert to their principles. I think.

Whilst I am a Labour/Green voter myself, thats simply not…

linger

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 09:02:45 +1200

the amount being paid off is greater than the sum being borrowedSteve’s point was that that you originally said something quite different, as “maturing debt” is debt that is coming due for payment (or contract renegotiation), not necessarily debt that is being paid off.

Cecelia

Thu, 09 Jul 2015 07:19:49 +1200

And it also makes voters aware of what it stands for, rather than what it stands against.

Helen Clarke said on Q&A that Labour has to appeal to the centre as well as its base – and groom its leader. Politics it too "political". I want a Labour Party to crusade…

Tinakori

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 19:32:24 +1200

No, that makes no sense at all. The debt is falling because the amount being paid off is greater than the sum being borrowed.

Tinakori

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 19:30:52 +1200

To your third point, the preceding sentences in the summary also say,

"New Zealand has an average annual disposable household income above the OECD average, and the poverty rate is somewhat lower than the OECD average. Poverty rates among older people fell by 11 percentage points from 2007 to 2010,…

william blake

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 17:56:05 +1200

It seems the Chinese stock market "tanking" is merely market correction after a 150% rise it has dropped by 30%. Some people have been burnt and things are cooling but it isn't a disaster.

william blake

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 17:53:14 +1200

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/government-debt-to-gdp

The graph almost makes the % of Debt to gdp look cyclical however the last three numbers are pretty much flatline. So a pretty big increase from the GFC and the National Party.

Greece is running at 170% debt to gdp so we are relatively safe from the IMF…

izogi

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 17:14:19 +1200

As long as we’re discussing credibility of National’s governance and the world’s eyes seem to be staring towards Greece, is today’s news about the apparently very big stockmarket problems in China likely to have much of an impact on New Zealand?

Steve Barnes

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 17:01:16 +1200

because of debt maturing exceeding projected additional debt.

Why yes of course, how could I be so silly. The debt we will owe exceeds what we think we may owe so is less.
Like if I borrow $10 from you with $5 of that debt projected as future debt then…

Kumara Republic

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 16:57:07 +1200

They need to focus on identifying ways to depict the Key government as dirty, crony-capitalists. It really isn’t that hard since that’s what they are.

Here’s a possible start: “For the price of a shipload of sheep to Saudi Arabia, you could instead get x number of doctors.”

The trick…

linger

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 16:56:59 +1200

social spending in New Zealand increased by 22%…
Let’s put that in context:
(i) Could certain Christchurch events between those two dates have affected total social expenditure, do you think?
(ii) The GFC also struck NZ between those two date ranges.
So an increase in total expenditure does not translate…

BenWilson

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 16:42:40 +1200

None of those conditions are true

1. You only list one condition, which makes me think you're barely putting any thought into what you're writing here and makes me wonder if I should even bother to reciprocate with serious answers. That condition is that you have an expectation of income…

Tinakori

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 16:40:24 +1200

"Our Govt. is now borrowing at unprecedented levels...."

That's not true and our gross foreign government debt is going to start to fall in 2016/17 because of debt maturing exceeding projected additional debt. Check out the fiscal and economic update on the Treasury website. The changes to the surplus/deficit announced…

andin

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 16:23:15 +1200

Oh stop it you two!
However, the reason people believe Key is because he uses very simple frames
Imagine yourself a couple of centuries back and indigenous...

"If you make your mark here, you wont have to worry anymore and you will be better off"

Yes the power-possessing beings have…

Bart Janssen

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 15:53:11 +1200

1. More debt.
2. Incomes from existing assets
3. Incomes from services – more user pays
4. Directly tapping the money supply

To address your alternatives to taxation

1 More debt leads to more debt repayment costs and eventually defaulting on loans. What you are suggesting is just fine if…

Mikaere Curtis

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 15:44:00 +1200

Simple, but people believe Key when he says Labour are useless and with them and the Greens in power NZ would be a basket case.
Well, with Key's legacy that may well turn out to be true.

Yeah, a Labour/Greens government may well end up having to fix a lot…

BenWilson

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 15:01:20 +1200

While Social Credit founder C.H. Douglas’s aversion to “international jewry” wasn’t exactly a cornerstone of the Party’s policies, it was certainly a factor in it becoming a magnet for a host of crackpot causes.

Yes, I'm definitely not advocating their party here. But the underlying economic analysis was very interesting…

BenWilson

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 14:57:16 +1200

But since you’ve said taxation isn’t the answer it must be true

No, that's not the reason. The reasons were given, and you can engage with them if you want to have a sensible discussion, or keep bringing up poor underdeveloped nations laid waste by war and disastrous ideological interventions…

Steve Barnes

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 14:47:54 +1200

Of course. The other thing the Clark government did was to encourage (to some degree, at least not prevent) finance companies to take on a secondary banking role, which meant that the inevitable banking crashes were ring-fenced away from the real banks,

Had they not done that we may have…

Ianmac

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 14:46:00 +1200

"We’ve become quite good at spotting what’s wrong with Labour, but not very good at agreeing on what they should do now."
The clearly enunciated vision of Bernie Sanders might resonate here.
http://crooksandliars.com/2015/07/bernie-sanders-responds-attacks-being-too

Bart Janssen

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 14:27:38 +1200

I’m unwilling to accept it because it’s not true.

Well since you said so ...

I suggest you visit Cambodia, a country with essentially no taxation. Lots of schools, paid for by foreign aid but no teachers because there is no money to pay them. No money to maintain roads.…

Joe Wylie

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 14:02:30 +1200

The Social Credit version of economics had at least some hold then and for many decades later, and it was quite a different view of how to reconcile capitalism with socialism. It was a view that might have been ahead of its time then, because it envisaged not a world…

Tinakori

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 13:42:20 +1200

Given National has gutted education, health and social welfare spending............

According to the OECD

"The real value of social spending in New Zealand increased by 22% from 2007/08 to 2012/13. This is well above the OECD average of 14%. "

Tinakori

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 13:35:59 +1200

Sometimes these policies work best when the two major parties are in agreement. The debt repayment started when National first had a surplus in 1994. Similarly both parties had effective bi-partisan approaches to bank regulation which improved the banks' ability to withstand the shocks of the GFC. That both Australia…

BenWilson

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 13:24:16 +1200

Sadly too many people here and elsewhere are unwilling to accept that in order to have the nice things we need taxes.

I’m unwilling to accept it because it’s not true. Taxes are only one way that governments can get money. There are at least 4 other sources I can…

Bart Janssen

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 12:51:21 +1200

Given National has gutted education, health and social welfare spending foisting ever more onto user-pays type operations that are great for the rich but suck for the poor (and even for the middle class) ... the Labour policies shouldn't be hard to write.

Fixing those core institutions after the damage…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 12:32:03 +1200

That’s 80 years ago, so an election and parliament that’s not dominated by Blue versus Red opposing each other is beyond living memory for nearly everyone, but that doesn’t mean things can’t change again.
Surely must be time for the the 'Bastards vs Complete Bastards' game to run its natural…

Grant McDougall

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 12:31:34 +1200

I think the single thing labour need do is to offer up a vision of hope, hope to those so utterly devastated by this govt policies and those stuck in the middle watching their lifestyles crumble (but house prices go ballistic)

Hear, hear. Labour also needs to stick to its…

BenWilson

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 12:24:17 +1200

I agree that's a possibility, and that the 30s are a period to look to for at least some possibilities and glimpses of the future. It's hard to do that without Godwinning any discussion, of course, but that in itself should be cause for pause about thinking we're all good…

Stuart Munro

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 12:22:30 +1200

I think that while the obvious example of Greece is dominating the news the utterly treasonous irresponsibility of National's 'policy' needs to be highlighted and ridiculed. That Stuff should print the arrant fantasy that the Gnats have somehow achieved a surplus by massive borrowing should be contested. We are going…

bob daktari

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 12:07:09 +1200

We've become quite good at spotting what's wrong with Labour, but not very good at agreeing on what they should do now.

I think the single thing labour need do is to offer up a vision of hope, hope to those so utterly devastated by this govt policies and those…

Rich of Observationz

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 11:27:24 +1200

izogi

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 11:02:34 +1200

We've become quite good at spotting what's wrong with Labour, but not very good at agreeing on what they should do now.

Another more radical view (and I'm trying to play devil's advocate here) might be that Labour is simply past its time, at the very least in its current…

BenWilson

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 10:47:41 +1200

We've become quite good at spotting what's wrong with Labour, but not very good at agreeing on what they should do now. Not surprisingly, since the wrongs are in the past, fixed items of consideration, but the future has unlimited possibilities. It's also particularly hard for progressive parties compared to…

Mikaere Curtis

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 10:40:45 +1200

Labour need to do what National did so well – identify weaknesses in the government, research which frames resonate with voters and then have a coordinated campaign of describing the government using these resonant frames.

National are a horrible government, with many, many issues that can be used to provide…

Russell Brown

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 09:41:49 +1200

In New Zealand the vaunted Cullen surplus run in the first decade of the 21st century occurred in the boom period, ending immediately after the GFC took hold. It’s manifestly clear that, post-GFC, we are nowhere near the domestic or international stability which produced those past results.

But it is…

Public Address

Wed, 08 Jul 2015 09:41:49 +1200

Discussion from blog post.