Public Address | Cafe | Polity: Let the big lies flow

Keir Leslie

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 16:15:12 +1300

How so? There’s no reason a future Labour government couldn’t implement a moderately redistributive tax policy like a fiscally-neutral $11k UBI .

[Whereas I very much doubt that you could practically implement the $86 billion policy.]

Matthew Hooton

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 16:12:02 +1300

Yes, although once you're above $25b it all becomes a bit academic.

Keir Leslie

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 15:58:02 +1300

$86B-$43B is quite a big difference, you'd have to say.

Matthew Hooton

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 15:49:03 +1300

My column notes that if set at Jobseekers it would cost more like $43b, plus maybe $6b for extra support for children. This is gross of course, but you don't get to take off the full $25b because that includes National Superannuation.

Keir Leslie

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 15:30:57 +1300

Ah. See I think it is very clear that Labour will not in fact set the UBI at a rate high enough to ensure that you can eliminate other welfare schemes. (See 5.3 of Harris & Bierema.) Instead it will be set at, I would imagine, the level of the Jobseeker's.…

Matthew Hooton

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 15:23:52 +1300

My $86b figure is an annual figure based on three assumptions: (1) it is universal from age 18, (2) there are no losers and (3) you can do away with other welfare schemes to remove means testing and eliminate the problem of high EMTRs. This is a gross figure, so…

Matthew Hooton

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 15:17:51 +1300

“I estimate Stephen’s car likely cost a MILLION DOLLARS”.
“That is a lie”.

I think if you explain to Stephen how you reached the million dollar figure, he ought to say more than "that is a lie" and ought instead to say something like, "no your first and second assumptions…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 15:12:32 +1300

I’m not going to wade into the debate over whose fault the flag failure was. My views are what you’d expect them to be.

Speaking of the flag, I've called my final judgment on it – it can indeed be worth billions.

linger

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 12:40:32 +1300

You can’t really accuse people of lying about the likely cost of a policy when you refuse to put any numbers around it yourself.There is as yet no detailed policy to cost, which means that any numbers you pull out at this stage against it act only to shut down…

Steve Barnes

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 11:49:42 +1300

Does anyone have a good primer, or reference?

History of basic income Basic Income Earth Network.

Basic income Wikipedia.

Keir Leslie

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 11:46:47 +1300

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of the way Labour's handled this UBI stuff, but it is pretty clear that an $82B figure is, ah, driven by some interesting assumptions.

In fact you pretty much can cost the preferred UBI policy set out in the Harris & Bierema paper – probably…

Stephen Judd

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 11:23:45 +1300

You can't really accuse people of lying about the likely cost of a policy when you refuse to put any numbers around it yourself.

Of course you can accuse. "This policy is likely to cost $82bn" is a truth claim that can be wrong, and it can be consciously wrong,…

Matthew Hooton

Thu, 31 Mar 2016 10:27:19 +1300

You can't really accuse people of lying about the likely cost of a policy when you refuse to put any numbers around it yourself.

Tom Johnson

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 18:07:19 +1300

In economic terms it’s a correction because our gdp has not fallen the way that was promised. So you get a significant increase of dollars to the guy or girl cleaning your work toilets or any hard low paid job like that. Suddenly they have a $10,000 increase in annual…

Nat

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 17:05:59 +1300

I'm fascinated with the idea of UBI but would like to read more about it. The back of the envelope calcs I've done do seem staggeringly huge, especially here in the US. Does anyone have a good primer, or reference? (I'm not an economist but happy to do maths)

BenWilson

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 12:59:50 +1300

By definition, surely if it’s only applied to some groups, or in some communities, it’s not a UBI?

It could be universal within the group or community. Which most benefits aren't. So it's not entirely crazy to trial the idea. I don't think that's how it should be trialled here,…

linger

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 12:48:03 +1300

To be clear, I support the introduction of a UBI.
However, I'm a little confused as to how the social justice notion "that everybody is getting the same" is compatible with incremental testing or rollout. By definition, surely if it's only applied to some groups, or in some communities, it's…

BenWilson

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 12:33:28 +1300

Just the idea that everyone is getting the same means that people start working and acting in a more community minded way. It is all about social justice.

Yes, I think attempting to boil the whole idea down to the exact $ each person gets is a good way of…

Joe Wylie

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 12:28:44 +1300

relentless dissatisfaction

Coming from English, that sounds like a politely gentrified version of Orwell's "boot stamping on a human face – forever."

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 12:26:02 +1300

relentless dissatisfaction
Aha!
So that's the R & D they are backing...

Steve Barnes

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 12:01:54 +1300

National’s policies seem to be heading towards – ‘spare change?’

Oh Ian, you sound disappointed but never mind, that seems to be Nationals plan...
In parliament yesterday the inimitable Bill English informed us that...
Part of the key to this Government’s success is relentless dissatisfaction
So, it is…

Sacha

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 09:44:27 +1300

It also has to go to everyone at the same rate including children.

Did he say why? Most discussions I've seen lately propose a lower rate for children.

Sacha

Wed, 30 Mar 2016 09:42:55 +1300

Also building up funds through returns from investments in public assets (eg Norway has huge funds from years of state owned oil exploration).

Whereas our govt stopped investing into the Cullen fund and keeps shifting the date when they will resume.

Tom Johnson

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 22:30:06 +1300

The economy promises of the last 30 years have demonstrably not been achieved . They have failed in their target performances and thus any ceo would seek an active programme of new policy. ....but no, coz national dont blink ever baby

linger

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 20:59:03 +1300

end up like that other great Labour policy, “flag change”
i.e. appropriated by National, who then attempt to impose it in an unrealistic timeframe without sufficient public discussion or expert input?

Labour have called for a UBI to be discussed, not for one to be introduced tomorrow. Given that a…

Hilary Stace

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 20:57:54 +1300

Just been to hear Guy Standing who gave examples of pilots of UBI – some in India. Says it can be small and incremental to start with. Just the idea that everyone is getting the same means that people start working and acting in a more community minded way. It…

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 20:46:48 +1300

beggar's belief...
...or is going to end up like that other great Labour policy, “flag change”
National's policies seem to be heading towards – 'spare change?'

Emma Hart

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 20:42:24 +1300

And is $200 a week going to be enough

No, it's not. It's a ridiculous amount. Yes, a Jobseeker Allowance is $210/week, but almost everyone also receives an Accommodation Supplement, because you cannot live on that. In Christchurch, it's up to $65/week, and in Auckland it's higher. I support a…

Raymond A Francis

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 20:24:21 +1300

So if David Farrar is lying, how about telling us just how Labour is going to pay for UBI, higher GST, higher taxes on all the bands, what?
And is $200 a week going to be enough
Let's wait and see how Finland manage it first before climbing on the…

izogi

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 19:47:47 +1300

Don't blame the media for that. They don't have the resources to do independent analysis a lot of the time, so they will regurgitate anything that sounds plausible.

In other words, there's a serious problem with New Zealand's current state of democracy?

Alfie

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 19:38:32 +1300

Don’t blame the media for that. They don’t have the resources to do independent analysis a lot of the time, so they will regurgitate anything that sounds plausible.

Sorry but I have to take issue with that comment Nick. I've worked with a lot of journos over the years and…

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 18:34:06 +1300

I suspect Audrey may be barking up the wrong tree
... or ring barking the whole forest – just in case!

simon g

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 17:49:07 +1300

I realize that Rob can't control the media narrative, and so he's doing his bit:

when National infects our public conversation with lies and excuses, I’ll be here on Public Address providing a little ray of sun.

That's fine. But obviously there are two different issues at play here.

1)…

andin

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 17:34:29 +1300

narrative?

You usually only need one of those when the lies require stitching together ;-|

Angela Hart

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 17:33:59 +1300

A big part of the problem we have here is this unquestioning repetition of statements by the media without any checking whatsoever. Truthiness results when people have seen/read/heard the same lie so many times without it ever being challenged that they accept it as truth. It’s a terrible way to…

Nick Russell

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 16:44:55 +1300

The likes of David Farrar and Jordan Williams know how to get the media's attention. Labour should have had their own narrative on cost and tax rates ready to go when they announced this, so they could pre-empt the inevitable attack, but it seems they didn't and so the Government…

Mr Mark

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 16:39:12 +1300

A Yes/No Option

Audrey Young thinks that "it should be easy for John Key to defend himself against inevitable criticism" on the flag process, clearly implying that most voters will accept his responses.

For example, she tells us: __"To those who say people should have been asked first if they…

Rob Salmond

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 16:27:05 +1300

Re the UBI – I'm sorry, but exactly what did you expect? It's not National's job to help Labour develop good policy, or to provide constructive feedback.

Fair question. Certainly I agree It's National's job to put up arguments against the idea if they disagree. But it's the media's job…

izogi

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 16:23:09 +1300

Doing hit jobs on Labour policies is basically what Kiwiblog and the Taxpayers Union do

To be fair, though, unless DPF is no longer on the self-appointed Board of the Taxpayers' Union (which is not actually a registered union for very good reason — nice set of rules in the…

Sacha

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 16:18:54 +1300

It might be a good idea to anticipate the attacks and pre-empt them when releasing a policy, or even announcing that you are thinking about it, rather than giving the other side free hits.

Still waiting for anyone to explain how Labour continues to be unable to perform this most…

Lucy2

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 16:15:34 +1300

"They want to ensure Labour stays in opposition, and they stay in Government. So they try to find and exploit flaws in your policies" there was a time when governments were about more than the 3 year cycle, they were about ensuring that their citizens were feed and looked after…

Ian Dalziel

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 15:48:51 +1300

That is not dirty politics. That is a democracy at work.
No, it’s adults being dicks – so much for the greater good of the country or healthy and reasoned debate, it’s not the system I want dictating, nay scrub that, deciding our future…

Nick Russell

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 15:37:10 +1300

Re the UBI – I'm sorry, but exactly what did you expect? It's not National's job to help Labour develop good policy, or to provide constructive feedback. They want to ensure Labour stays in opposition, and they stay in Government. So they try to find and exploit flaws in your…

bob daktari

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 14:26:54 +1300

shine away Rob – however here you talk to those who can see through spin, Labour's continuing problem is to get to those who believe the media regurgitation of what they're told and press released

Now the flag is done I'm growingly bitter that for all that transpired we are…

Public Address

Tue, 29 Mar 2016 14:26:54 +1300

Discussion from blog post.