Public Address | Cafe | Polity: Four thoughts on polling in Wellington’s mayoral election

Joe Wylie

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 22:00:55 +1300

A living wage is important to my real life, and I would have liked to have been able to read what candidates' positions were on such matters.
Apart from candidates' own social media efforts, Living Wage Aotearoa New Zealand did a pretty good job of keeping up with where many…

Son of Dad

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 15:03:44 +1300

Sadly, with a young family and the necessity of making ends meet, I do not enjoy the privilege of having sufficient spare time to attend candidates' meetings. A living wage is important to my real life, and I would have liked to have been able to read what candidates' positions…

Lucy Telfar Barnard

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 12:51:26 +1300

I thought Public Address had a policy of never direct linking to Mr Slater's site? Or maybe that was just wishful thinking on my part.

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 12:48:58 +1300

And an ambassador – with a Ferraro Rocher budget no doubt.. A cynic might think that Woolf is being given unlimited free travel in return for his support on any issues Lester wants votes on.

Hilary Stace

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 12:43:05 +1300

In an aside to the Mayoralty race in Wellington, we now have an official city scientist! New councillor, Peter Gilberd, has a PhD in physics and used to administer the Royal Society's Marsden Fund. We might even get a council supported science seminar series.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/85561687/new-city-ambassador-and-scientist-roles-as-lester-dishes-out-council-portfolios

BenWilson

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 12:10:21 +1300

Thanks for that Sacha. Interesting that it's not about cost, but actually about the statistical validity and complexity.

Rich of Observationz

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 10:04:32 +1300

A fairly large percentage of active cellphone numbers are electricity meters (most smart meters have a GPRS/3G 'modem' as their comms method and because all GSM endpoints need a number, they have one).

Still, electricity meters might have more sensible political opinions than many voters.

linger

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 22:05:25 +1300

What measurable metrics are used to determine likely voters?
The “screen” is simply a question fairly early in the sequence asking whether the respondent believes they will vote: if the answer is “no”, then the questionnaire may be terminated at (or shortened from) that point. (N.B. also removes those who…

Sacha

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 20:49:02 +1300

some collection of mobile phones numbers with demographic information attached that pollsters used.

Some firms are including mobiles. There are arguments by respected experts in the field that it doesn't make enough of a difference.

Sacha

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 20:42:18 +1300

Slater's trashy ramblings

how is that slob still out in public?

izogi

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 17:55:18 +1300

Is it necessary to validate Slater's trashy ramblings by linking to them?

The lesson? Likely voter screens are hugely important in lower turnout elections.

What measurable metrics are used to determine likely voters?

Can it be narrowed down to determine likely swing voters, so that everyone else doesn't have to…

Hilary Stace

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 14:34:42 +1300

There were numerous meetings around Wellington and all offered contact details in their ads to ask specific questions or policy positions. I went along to a couple of meetings and asked my questions – things like their position on the Living Wage are actually important for real people's lives. From…

Son of Dad

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 13:45:47 +1300

For the first time in nearly thirty years, I chose not to vote in the local body elections.
I feel deeply ashamed (and also annoyed) that I felt I could not participate in the democratic process, but I could not, in all conscience, give my support to any of the…

Moz

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 12:08:30 +1300

But what can anyone do about that? You want to poll opinion, you do it with what you have.

I was asking because I hoped that there was some collection of mobile phones numbers with demographic information attached that pollsters used. Even getting the demographic "will supply a phone number…

BenWilson

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 11:41:45 +1300

Does robopolling acquire any demographics?

Well, you can ask demographic questions. One of the answers can be "I don't want to answer this question". But you do presumably want to keep the survey short too, so probably you want to limit the number of options that can be chosen.

One…

Rich of Observationz

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 10:13:17 +1300

I guess the issue is that you get a sample of people that respond to your polling which isn't congruent with the people that vote.

Does robopolling acquire any demographics? It would seem hard to (beyond simple stuff like analysing address, name, maybe age if you have the electoral roll…

Moz

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 09:25:50 +1300

I'm guessing that this misses an awful lot of mobile-phone-only voters, based purely on no-one in the office ever having been called. Technically we have a landline, and I believe there's even a phone we could plug into it in one of the boxes in the garage. But ringing that…

Rob Salmond

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 09:23:33 +1300

whether it’s phone or internet surveys… dont bullshit with the “this will just take 5 mins”

For Labour's robopolls we announced the exact number of questions to the person as well as the time, and had the whole interaction down to 90 seconds. We announced that timing accurately at the…

Rob Salmond

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 09:21:50 +1300

How do robopolls select for people in the house or do they just take whoever answers the phone?

Technique differs by firm, but the most common practice is to take whoever answers the phone.

FletcherB

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 22:44:54 +1300

I like taking part in phone polling when I have the time (sometimes it’s inconvenient)… and I 100% hang up on automated calls as soon as I determine they are recordings and not a live human… I don’t care how worthy they may be (I don’t wait to find out…)…

martinb

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 22:32:11 +1300

what will Labour do to help call centre operators who have lost their positions as a result of this new automation?

mpledger

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 22:29:42 +1300

How do robopolls select for people in the house or do they just take whoever answers the phone?

I'm guessing they take whoever answers, which in this case is ok since voter turnout and phone responders are biased in the same direction – white, female and older.

It would be…

Rob Salmond

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 14:21:58 +1300

I wonder if it encourages or discourages participation.

Robopoll response rates are usually lower than live operator polls, but the per-call cost on robopolls is so low that it actually has better cost-effectiveness.

Hilary Stace

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 14:17:39 +1300

Thanks. I wonder if it encourages or discourages participation. For example, I usually answer phone surveys in case they are poor solo mothers getting paid per response, but can feel resentful at the time it takes. But on the other hand if you know it is anonymous and quick you…

Rob Salmond

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 13:27:30 +1300

Can you explain robopolling a bit more?

Sure. Instead of a live operator asking you questions and noting down your responses, a pre-recorded voice says things like "If you're planning to vote Labour, press 1. For National, press 2, etc. Then the robopoll records your touch tone responses.

Hilary Stace

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 13:18:11 +1300

Can you explain robopolling a bit more?

Public Address

Wed, 19 Oct 2016 13:18:11 +1300

Discussion from blog post.